Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Examining How The Euro2016 Betting Odds Have Shifted

I first looked at Bovada's odds for winning, advancing, and scoring goals a week ago yesterday. After lots of research (maybe not "lots" but you know how I do things), here is the bet slip I decided on as of May 31st:

  • France to win the tournament +325
  • Parlay France and Germany to win their groups -135
  • Top tournament goalscorer:
    • Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal +800
    • Graziano Pelle, Italy +3300
    • Danny Welbeck, England +5000
    • Thomas Muller, Germany +700
    • Paco Alcacer, Spain +2500
As the tournament kickoff date approaches, I wanted to see how the betting landscape had shifted based on the bets people were placing. Here's the biggest changes:

To Win The Tournament

Biggest winner: France (+325 to +300)

The French had been tied with the Germans at +325 co-favorites, but they've taken enough action to push the lines to +300/+450. I don't think my blog analysis had anything to do with the lines moving that much, but I do think my logic was the cause of the shift. 

Biggest loser: Italy (+1400 to +1600)

Not only did Italy's odds become a little longer, but Portugal moving from +2000 to +1600 means the Italians and Portugese are now tied. My analysis of that: neither of these teams has a chance of winning. 

Top Tournament Goal Scorer

Biggest winners: 

  • Alvaro Morata, Spain (+2000 to +1800)
  • Mario Gomez, Germany (+3300 to +2500)
  • Jamie Vardy, England (+3300 to +2800)
  • Mario Mandzukic, Croatia (+3300 to +2800)

There isn't a clear-cut winner, because the board is still topped by Muller, Ronaldo, Griezmann, and then the Giroud/Lewandoski/Kane trio. But Morata and Gomez made fairly significant moves, and those two are certainly worth a look if you're betting France and looking to hedge with the Top Goalscorer prop. 

Biggest losers: 

  • Daniel Sturridge, England (+4000 to +5000)
  • Andre Schurrle, Germany (+5000 to +8000)
  • David Silva, Spain (+5000 to +8000)
  • Christian Benteke, Belgium (+5000 to +8000)
  • Pedro, Spain (+5000 to +10000)
  • People who bet on players who are not actually going to play like Paco Alcacer and Danny Welbeck
Nobody was a bigger loser than the idiot who told people to bet on Alcacer and Welbeck as decent long shots before we got confirmation that they were participating in the tournament. But Pedro was close, because for some reason he took the standard 5000-to-8000 drop and decided to fall even further down the board to 100/1. 

To Win Groups A and C

France and Germany were the runaway favorites in their groups, at -325 and -300 respectively, so we parlayed them at -135. 

Those three figures are now -350, -300, and -141. 

The Revised Bet Slip

France to win the tournament +300

Parlay France and Germany to win their groups -141

Top tournament goalscorer
  • Ronaldo, Portugal +800
  • Pelle, Italy +3300
  • Gomez, Germany +2500
  • Morata, Spain +1800

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