Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Can We Bring JVR Back To Philly?

I mean the short answer is probably definitely not. But I saw this tweet from PSG today:
..and my brain immediately framed it in a Flyers context.

The Milan Lucic Trade

Before last summer's entry draft, the Bruins moved one of their franchise cornerstones to LA in their biggest move of a busy summer.
Bruins received: pick #13, goalie Martin Jones, defenseman Colin Miller
Los Angeles received: forward Milan Lucic (Boston retained 45% of his salary)
I suppose the logic made sense on both sides. The Kings were set in goal and didn't really need an above-average backup. They also didn't really need Miller for their supposed Cup run, so they turned a prospect and a pick into one of the best power forwards in the league. Visions of a big, mean team probably danced in Kings GM Dean Lombardi's head (though, in doing some internet comment section research, lots of fans weren't exactly thrilled).

On the Bruins side of things, they turned the final year of Lucic's 3 year/$18 million deal into a backup goalie and two prospects. It would have made more sense if they committed to the rebuild and moved some more older players (and hadn't given away Dougie Hamilton and Tyler Seguin in the previous year), but the logic makes sense. They could have ended up with a Rask-Jones tandem in goal, a blueline prospect that was borderline NHL-ready, and a trio of first round picks.

Well, they traded Jones three days later (for the 29th or 30th pick in this year's draft), used their three picks on players who have made approximately zero noise in the past year, and Miller isn't good enough to rescue their back end from their $13.7 million commitment to Chara, Seidenberg, McQuaid, and Miller (plus Torey Krug's pending new deal). The Bruins missed the playoffs and the window is just open enough for them to not completely rebuild.

James van Riemsdyk

There are three main differences between Lucic in 2015 and JVR in 2016:

  • Lucic was a bit more expensive on a per-year basis, with a $6 million cap hit compared to van Riemsdyk's $4.25 million
  • Lucic's contract expired the summer after the trade, whereas JVR is locked into his deal for two more years
  • Lucic played 81 games in 2014-15. JVR played just 40 last year before he fractured his foot
So, in Typical Leafs Fan fashion, Leafs Fans are going to overvalue JVR and expect a larger return than the Lucic deal for a player who:
  • is the same age
  • is coming off a season where he fractured his foot and missed half of his games
  • generated similar or worse numbers in the following categories: Corsi, Fenwick, Expected Goals For, Expected Goals Against, Actual Goals For, Actual Goals Against, Goals For Per 60, Goals Against Per 60
  • has played half the playoff games and has generated a third of the playoff points
  • will not have any of his salary retained because the Toronto front office is against that
Final Verdict

I have changed my mind. I don't want JVR, because his perceived value in Toronto seems to be WAY higher than his actual value anywhere (Philadelphia included, and you know how much we love Former Flyers and Power Forwards). 

No comments:

Post a Comment