Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Copa America Betting Preview: USA-Argentina

Tonight is potentially the night that soccer finally becomes big in America. We've been building up to the moment for decades, and several games (the one that comes to mind most recently was against Belgium) have almost broken the way of the Yanks.

Well, tonight the Stars And Stripes have another chance to take down a world powerhouse. It's USA versus Argentina at 9:00 from Houston.

Oh wait before I get you all hyped up, I should probably mention that we have absolutely NO chance of beating Argentina and when we lose soccer will fade into the background again until the next major international tournament.

Let's look at some of the lines that are available tonight, courtesy of Bovada:

To Score A Goal


  • Dempsey +280 and Wondolowski +300 are the two most important strikers
  • Zardes +350, Pulisic +380, Nagbe +380, Zusi +380, and Bradley +450 all seem like their odds are super low considering none of them are going to score
  • Fabian Johnson +1000 and DeAndre Yedlin +2200 would be my value plays, but...
  • Lamela +210, Lavezzi +250, and Pastore +260 are all more likely than any American
  • Higuain +105 and Aguero +110 are both decent bets
  • Messi -110 is available aka Lionel Messi is scoring a goal tonight

    Messi to score and Argentina to win parlay pays +125 - I think that's a good bet for tonight. 

    Total Goals
    • Total over/under line is 2.5 (-115)
    • Argentina over 1.5 pays -165
    • USA over 0.5 pays -125
    So Argentina is more likely to score two goals than the US is to score one. 

    To Qualify/Advance
    • USA +450
    • Argentina -750
    I mean the numbers just keep backing up the fact that we, as Americans, have no chance tonight. 

    Exact Correct Score

    This is my favorite place in the Bovada ticket to analyze, because it gives you a sliding scale of the different possibilities and how likely the sharps in Vegas think they are. In order:
    • Argentina 1-0 and 2-0 are both +475
    • Argentina 2-1 and Draw 1-1 are both +650
    • Argentina 3-0 is +750 and Argentina 3-1 is +1050
    • Draw 0-0 is +1000 (this would really do wonders for soccer in the US)
    • Then we finally get a USA line, as 1-0 pays +1400 and 2-1 pays +2000
    • Some other not-quite longshots: Draw 2-2 +1800, Argentina 3-2 +2800, Argentina 4-0 +1600, Argentina 4-1 +2200
    • The biggest Argentina line available is Argentina 6-0 +8000. For that same price you can get USA 3-0, 3-1, or 3-2

    Goal Spread

    The bet of the night is Argentina -1 (-140)

    Bet Slip
    • Argentina -1 (-140)
    • Messi to score and Argentina to win (+125)
    • Over 2.5 (-115)
    • Argentina 4-0 (+1600) - this one is kind of sadistic

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