Friday, June 24, 2016

NHL Draft Betting Preview

The first round of the NHL Draft is tonight, and it should be just as exciting and well-produced as last night's NBA Draft because hockey is totally a Big Four Mainstream Sport in the United States. And, like all big sports, we're going to try to use our limited knowledge to make some money off of it. Bovada has a nice selection of draft prop bets available, if you're into that sort of thing.

For reference on what people smarter than me seem to think, I LOVE Platinum Seat Ghosts' Aggregate Rankings.

Defensemen Drafted In The First Round - Over/Under 8.5

The locks are Juolevi, Sergachyov, Chychrun, Bean, Fabbro, and McAvoy. Those six will all go in the first twenty picks. Then it gets a little dicey, because the next batch is a definite step down from Fabbro/McAvoy. Names like Stanley, Clague, Cholowski, Hajek, Johanson, Fox, Girard, and Deneen have all been projected - by someone or another - to go in the first round. But it's tough to say that three of them will, and I think there is enough forward depth in this draft that it won't get to nine.

Verdict: Under 8.5

Goalies Drafted In The First Round - Over/Under 0.5

In all of the projections that PSG uses to make his aggregate rankings, only two people had a goalie going in the first round. Carter Hart and Jonas Gustavsson are the only two realistic options, and their aggregate rankings are 39 and 44 overall.

What seals the deal for me is the moneyline. Over pays +200 and Under pays -300. It's not happening.

Verdict: Under 0.5

Players Drafted From The CHL (16.5), OHL (10), QMJHL (3.5), and WHL (2.5) In The First Round

The easiest way to do this is go league-by-league and then add them all up.

OHL (Over/Under 10)

Locks: Tkachuk, Juolevi, Nylander, Brown, Sergachyov, Chychrun, McLeod, Jones, DeBrincat, Stanley

Maybes: Boris Katchouk (aggregate 28, best 22), Jordan Kyrou (aggregate 32, best 28), Cluff Pu (aggregate 48, lowest 18)

Verdict: I think it very well may end up being an even ten players, but I like the low-risk opportunity. Over 10

QMJHL (Over/Under 3.5)

Locks: Dubois, Gauthier

Maybes: Pascal Laberge (aggregate 27, best 23), Vitaly Abramov (aggregate 30, best 21), Samuel Girard (aggregate 46, best 23)

Verdict: I think we're good for at least four. Over 3.5's a good play

WHL (Over/Under 2.5)

Locks: Bean, Howden

Maybes: Kale Clague (aggregate 31, best 22), Tyler Benson (aggregate 34, best 18), Libor Hajek (aggregate 35, best 26), Carter Hart (aggregate 39, best 24)

Verdict: Clague and/or Benson are probably good, so that'll take us through. Over 2.5

CHL (Over/Under 16.5)

And now we just add it all up. The locks are 10 from the OHL, 2 from the Q, and 2 from the WHL. If you trust my super-uninformed analysis, I'm thinking a pair of the maybes from each of the Q and WHL are getting drafted.

Verdict: Over 16.5

Players From The USHL/USDP/NCAA (Over/Under 6)

Locks: Keller, McAvoy, Bellows, Kunin, Tufte

Maybes: Tage Thompson (aggregate 29, best 24), Adam Fox (aggregate 45, best 27)

Verdict: I feel the opposite here than I did about the OHL. I think best-case scenario is six, and I could see it only being five. It's not worth the risk for me either way.

Bet Slip

Under 8.5 defensemen
Under 0.5 goalies
Over 10 from the OHL
Over 3.5 from the QMJHL
Over 2.5 from the WHL
Over 16.5 from the CHL

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