Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Let's Make Some Money On The Euro Cup

Similar to the Hockey World Cup coming this fall, the Futbol Euro Cup is going to pit the most talented players in the world against each other in the name of national pride.

And, like every sports tournament ever, it's also going to be a great opportunity to lose money and yell at the television.

Odds To Win The Cup

In examining the odds to win the 2016 Euros, there are seven teams with a reasonable or somewhat reasonable chance to lift the trophy. They are:

  • France and Germany (co-favorites, each at +325)
  • Spain and England (traditional powers, +550 and +750 respectively)
  • Belgium, Italy, and Portugal (+1000, +1400, and +2000 respectively)
Odds To Win Group Stage

France (-325) will likely win Group A. Germany (-300) will likely win Group C. Parlaying these two pays -135, which seems like a decent payout considering the opposition is Switzerland, Romania, Albania and Poland, Ukraine, Northern Ireland. 

England (-140), Spain (-165), and Portugal (-125) should each win their respective groups. If you're looking for a dark horse to upset one of them, it'd be Croatia (+210) over Spain. 

The first real early battle will take place in Group E, where Belgium (-105) and Italy (+160) will face off. 

How Do We Pick Who To Bet On?

For those of you who maybe don't follow soccer as much as you should, the point of the game is to score as many goals as possible. Here is who Bovada thinks is going to lead the tournament in goals scored (I capped it at +5000 because, let's be real, nothing beyond those odds will ever happen in soccer):

Thomas Muller (+700), Mario Gotze (+3300), Mario Gomez (+3300), Andre Schurrle (+5000), Max Kruse (+5000)

Antoine Greizmann (+900), Olivier Giroud (+1400), Anthony Martial (+2000), Andre-Pierre Gignac (+3300), Alexandre Lacazette (+4000), Dimitri Payet (+5000)

Alvaro Morata (+2000), Paco Alcacer (+2500), Aritz Aduriz (+3300), David Silva (+5000), Pedro (+5000)

Harry Kane (+1400), Jamie Vardy (+3300), Wayne Rooney (+3300), Daniel Sturridge (+4000), Danny Welbeck (+5000)
(Editor's note: England is basically like the current New York Yankees, in that their players aren't actually that good but there is so much goddamn media scrutiny that you know everything about all of these guys. So take it with a grain of salt because I'm sure more people will be betting on Rooney than on Andre-Pierre Gignac or Aritz Aduriz.)

Romelo Lukaku (+2000), Eden Hazard (+3300), Kevin De Bruyne (+3300), Christian Benteke (+5000)

Graziano Pelle (+3300)

Cristiano Ronaldo (+800)

Rest of World
Robert Lewandoski, Poland (+1400)
Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Sweden (+2500)
Mario Mandzukic, Croatia (+3300)
Gareth Bale, Wales (+4000)

Here are my takeaways: 

From a team perspective, I think France is the play. Germany's big guns are probably inflated a bit due to their recent success, and England's are similarly deflated but for the opposite reason. France has those first five guys that will all be contributing to the score sheet, and it's nice to have options in a long tournament like this one. 

Individually, either Pelle or Ronaldo should be your first look. Vegas thinks those two teams are going to have a successful run, and those are the only two players on the list for their respective teams. Here's some math for you:
You need goals to win + Those teams are going to win = Those guys are going to score
Now, to be fair, there is not a single player who will be receiving more hype than Ronaldo. His moneyline is probably adjusted to reflect that like half the money on this prop will be going to him. I think Pelle is an interesting play, just because his odds are so insanely high.

To Lead The Field In Goals Scored

In the Premier League, ten of the players listed above scored 8 or more goals this season.

  1. Harry Kane (+1400), 25 goals in 38 games
  2. Jamie Vardy (+3300), 24 goals in 36 games
  3. Romelo Lukaku (+2000), 18 goals in 37 games
  4. Olivier Giroud (+1400), 16 goals in 38 games
  5. Graziano Pelle (+3300), 11 goals in 30 games
  6. Anthony Martial (+2000), 11 goals in 31 games
  7. Christian Benteke (+5000), 9 goals in 29 games
  8. Dimitri Payet (+5000), 9 goals in 30 games
  9. Daniel Sturridge (+4000), 8 goals in 14 games
  10. Wayne Rooney (+3300), 8 goals in 28 games
Around the rest of the world, here's how the rest of the list compared:
  • Zlatan Ibrahimovic (+2500), 38 goals in 31 games in France
  • Alexandre Lacazette (+4000), 21 goals in 34 games in France
  • Robert Lewandoski (+1400), 30 goals in 32 games in Germany
  • Thomas Muller (+700), 20 goals in 31 games in Germany
  • Andre Schurrle (+5000), 9 goals in 29 games in Germany
  • Cristiano Ronaldo (+800), 35 goals in 36 games in Spain
  • Antoine Greizmann (+900), 22 goals in 38 games in Spain
  • Aritz Aduriz (+3300), 20 goals in 34 games in Spain
  • Gareth Bale (+4000), 19 goals in 23 games in Spain
  • Paco Alcacer (+2500), 13 goals in 34 games in Spain
  • Mario Mandzukic (+3300), 10 goals in 27 games in Italy
And, for good measure, here are the leaders in goal-scoring for Euro Qualifying:
  1. Robert Lewandoski (+1400), 13 goals in 10 games
  2. Zlatan Ibrahimovic (+2500), 11 goals in 10 games
  3. Thomas Muller (+700), 9 goals in 9 games
  4. Wayne Rooney (+3300), 7 goals in 8 games
  5. Gareth Bale (+4000), 7 goals in 10 games
  6. Danny Welbeck (+5000), 6 goals in 5 games
  7. Cristiano Ronaldo (+800), 5 goals in 6 games
  8. Paco Alcacer (+2500), 5 goals in 8 games
  9. Eden Hazard (+3300), 5 goals in 9 games
  10. Kevin De Bruyne (+3300), 5 goals in 10 games
The Bet Slip

France to win the tournament +325

Parlay France and Germany to win Groups A and C -135

Top tournament goalscorer: 
Ronaldo +800 - I'd rather lose than bet the favorite, which is good because he's technically not the favorite
Pelle +3300 - I love this bet and there's like a 100% chance he ends up with zero goals
Welbeck +5000 - 50/1 for a guy who scored more than a goal per game in qualifying? Yes please
Muller +700 - He actually is the favorite, but we need someone from Germany to hedge our France bet and he scores all of the goals for Germany
Alcacer +2500 - We also need a Spaniard to hedge that bet and Alcacer is the best bet

There you have it - we'll check in as the tournament progresses. Feel free to laugh at me on twitter when France, Germany, and Italy all get eliminated in the group stage and Ronaldo tears his Achilles in the second match. 

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