Monday Night Recap: Colts @ Panthers

Last night's game turned out to be a lot more exciting than I had imagined. I was thinking the Panthers' defense was going to stifle to the Colts all game, and they did up until the fourth quarter. Indy's first four drives of the game were a fumble, an interception, and two punts. Indy's final drive of the game ended in an interception (which immediately led to the game-winning field goal).

The game was exciting enough on its own, but everyone knows it's even more fun when you have a little action. Here's how we made out:

First Half Total Under 23 Points -115 (Win)
Easy. Panther field goal, Panther touchdown, Colt field goal, Colt field goal. I didn't expect there to be four scores of any kind, but three of the four being field goals matches up perfectly with the stats behind this bet.

First Score Of The Game: Carolina Touchdown +130 (Loss)
When the Colts fumbled the ball at their own 20 yard line, I expected Cam and the boys to be able to punch it in and crush this bet. Instead, they ran for 3 yards and threw 2 incompletions, then kicked a field goal. That stunk.

Frank Gore To Score A Touchdown +125 (Loss)
Coby Fleener To Score A Touchdown +250 (Win)
I have to pat myself on the back here, I nailed Fleener. The Panthers have had trouble with big receivers, and he was the most likely guy to fill that role. Looking back, I should have also considered Andre Johnson (6'3"), because he also scored.

Jonathan Stewart To Score A Touchdown -125 (Win)
Cam Newton To Score A Touchdown +100 (Win)
Greg Olsen To Score A Touchdown +110 (Win)
Ted Ginn To Score A Touchdown +150 (Loss)
I was trying to find a GIF or a Vine of Ted Ginn's drop from last night that would have ended up being a touchdown. I couldn't find it (I didn't look too hard, to be honest), but I did see a million links to other horrible drops. Keep that in mind next time you want to risk your money on him.

Panthers -7 (Loss)
My rationale behind picking the Cats last night was the following Vegas lines: Luck to throw an interception -275 (preposterously high, but he went and threw 3 last night), Luck over 2 touchdowns +110 (it's tough to win as a team like the Colts if you don't throw more than 2 touchdowns), and the Team Totals for Indy (20) and Carolina (29).

Last night: 5-4
Monday Nights: 23-28
Thursday Nights: 12-14-2
Ultimately, the Panthers failed to cover because Cam Newton wasn't good enough. I don't know if that counts as a hot take or not, but he put up fraud numbers. Compare his traditional stats to Luck:

• Luck: 23/47, 231 yards (4.9 yards per attempt), 2 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
• Newton: 16/35, 248 yards (7.1 yards per attempt), 2 touchdowns, 1 interception

When you get into advanced stats (I don't even really know if QB Rating counts as advanced because it's just based on those traditional numbers), Newton outplayed Luck 76.8 to 50.9. 

But when you get into QBR - which is actually at least a little advanced because we're now factoring in the likelihood of scoring points and winning games - Luck was a pretty terrible 34.8. Newton was even worse, at 33.9. 

Maybe Cam can ride his defense to some success this season like he's done so far. But Carolina's 7-0 has come against these guys:

• Jaguars (2-5, -60 point differential)
• Texans (3-5, -31)
• Saints (4-4, -21)
• Buccaneers (3-4, -36)
• Seahawks (4-4, +27, third place in the NFC West)
•  Eagles (3-4, +23, third place in the NFC East)
• Colts (3-5, -30)

This is a fraud team, and the Packers -2 at Carolina is a steal next week. I love betting on a good team that just got smacked, and I love betting against an overrated team. I may bet my car on GB next weekend. 

Monday Night Football Preview: Colts @ Panthers

It's a bleak time for us. We can't afford food. We can't afford beer. I have a Blackberry so I can't even drive with Uber (dot com) to make some extra life-changing money. Here's how we've fared so far on weeknight games:

Monday Nights: 18-24
Thursday Nights: 12-14-2

We aren't going to make up 8 wins tonight, but we need some momentum for the second half of the season. That's the logic we're using, and it also applies perfectly to the Philadelphia Eagles. 

Through 7 games, the Colts are a meager 3-4 and have disappointed everyone who considered them a real contender. The Panthers, on the other hand, have blown past expectations and have started the season undefeated through 6 games. 

For tonight's matchup, I'm going to throw out some fun stats to brighten your Monday morning (and then follow it up with some related bets to ruin your Monday night).

Fun Stat #1: In first halves, the Colts have thrown for just 5.6 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, have a QB rating of just 69.2. They have just 1 first half rushing touchdown and 2 fumbles. In second halves, they've thrown for 7.3 yards per attempt and 10 touchdowns (and 5 interceptions). The rushing attack has also seen a little more success in the second half, but the jump isn't as significant because the Colts stink and are always playing from behind. 

Along the same lines, you would expect Carolina to have more rushing success in the second halves of their victories. They've certainly relied more on the run in second halves (106 attempts to 91 first-half attempts), but they've only scored 1 more touchdown in the second half than the first, and their yards per rush drop from 5.2 in the first half to 3.8 in the second. However, their passing attack improves from 4 touchdowns/5 interceptions/5.9 yards per attempt in the first half to 5 touchdowns/2 interceptions/8.3 yards per attempt in the second. 

The Colts' defense has 5 interceptions in first halves so far, compared to just 2 in the second half. The Panthers' D has 3 in the first half and 6 in the second, which is certainly helped by the fact that they are usually winning (and forcing the other team into obvious passing situations). 

Related Bet #1: First half under 23 (-115). The total for the game is 46 points, so this first half under feels like a steal. 

Fun Stat #2: There is an enormous gap between the payouts for First Score Of The Game:

• Colts Safety (+5000) and Panthers Safety (+5000) aren't going to happen
• Colts Field Goal (+400)
• Panthers Field Goal (+325)
• Colts Touchdown (+300)
• Panthers Touchdown (+130)

Related Bet #2: How more obvious can it be? Vegas knows what's going to happen. Midas whale profit off it - Carolina TD +130, please and thank you. 

Fun Stat #3: The Panthers have allowed just 5 passing touchdowns and 6 rushing touchdowns through 6 games. Vegas expects Andrew Luck to throw 1 or 2 touchdowns, and they expect TY Hilton (and to a slightly lesser extent, Donte Moncrief) to have a big night. 

Frank Gore has all 3 rushing touchdown for Indianapolis this year. Moncrief (5) and Hilton (3) lead the team in receiving touchdowns, and Fleener/Johnson/Dorsett/Allen/Whalen have each caught one. 

Related Bet #3: Gore (+125), Hilton (+125), and Moncrief (+175) are the only bets I'd even consider making on this side. Few running backs have had a lot of success against Carolina, but they've given up touchdowns to Doug Martin, Marshawn Lynch, and Ryan Mathews the past 3 weeks. I wish Gore's prop paid more, but it's a decent bet. 

Teams have been able to have some balanced success against Carolina this year, and they got torched by Vincent Jackson (6'5", 230 pounds) and Jimmy Graham (6'7", 265 pounds). The Colts don't have a wide receiver who fits that mold, but Coby Fleener (+250, 6'6", 251 pounds) seems a likely target if coach Pagano saw the same Box Scores that I did. 

Fun Stat #4: The Colts, on the other hand, have allowed 12 passing touchdowns and 8 rushing touchdowns through 7 games. Vegas expects Cam Newtown to throw more than one touchdown, and they expect Jonathan Stewart and Greg Olsen to have a big night. 

Newton (4) and Stewart (2) have done most of the scoring on the ground, and Mike Tolbert has a touchdown too. Through the air, Ted Ginn (3) and Olsen (3) are the most frequent touchdown scorers. Tolbert, Corey Brown, and Holy Crap Jerrico Cotchery Is Still In The NFL have all also caught one touchdown. 

Related Bet #4: Stewart (-125) and Newton (+100) don't pay as much as you'd like, and you can say the same about Olsen (+110). Even Ted Ginn - who was going to be my Wild Card - pays just +150. I think we have to pick two of those four, but I'm having a tough time deciding so I'm just going to fire away with all four. 

Fun Stat #5: Look at the touchdown props for the Carolina players. Look at Andrew Luck -275 to throw an interception and just +110 to go over 2 touchdowns. Look at the Team Points lines for Indy (20) and Carolina (27). Vegas loves the Panthers tonight, and so do I. 

Related Bet #5: Panthers -7