Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Monday Night Recap: Colts @ Panthers

Last night's game turned out to be a lot more exciting than I had imagined. I was thinking the Panthers' defense was going to stifle to the Colts all game, and they did up until the fourth quarter. Indy's first four drives of the game were a fumble, an interception, and two punts. Indy's final drive of the game ended in an interception (which immediately led to the game-winning field goal).

The game was exciting enough on its own, but everyone knows it's even more fun when you have a little action. Here's how we made out:

First Half Total Under 23 Points -115 (Win)
Easy. Panther field goal, Panther touchdown, Colt field goal, Colt field goal. I didn't expect there to be four scores of any kind, but three of the four being field goals matches up perfectly with the stats behind this bet.

First Score Of The Game: Carolina Touchdown +130 (Loss)
When the Colts fumbled the ball at their own 20 yard line, I expected Cam and the boys to be able to punch it in and crush this bet. Instead, they ran for 3 yards and threw 2 incompletions, then kicked a field goal. That stunk.

Frank Gore To Score A Touchdown +125 (Loss)
Coby Fleener To Score A Touchdown +250 (Win)
I have to pat myself on the back here, I nailed Fleener. The Panthers have had trouble with big receivers, and he was the most likely guy to fill that role. Looking back, I should have also considered Andre Johnson (6'3"), because he also scored.

Jonathan Stewart To Score A Touchdown -125 (Win)
Cam Newton To Score A Touchdown +100 (Win)
Greg Olsen To Score A Touchdown +110 (Win)
Ted Ginn To Score A Touchdown +150 (Loss)
I was trying to find a GIF or a Vine of Ted Ginn's drop from last night that would have ended up being a touchdown. I couldn't find it (I didn't look too hard, to be honest), but I did see a million links to other horrible drops. Keep that in mind next time you want to risk your money on him.

Panthers -7 (Loss)
My rationale behind picking the Cats last night was the following Vegas lines: Luck to throw an interception -275 (preposterously high, but he went and threw 3 last night), Luck over 2 touchdowns +110 (it's tough to win as a team like the Colts if you don't throw more than 2 touchdowns), and the Team Totals for Indy (20) and Carolina (29).

Last night: 5-4
Monday Nights: 23-28
Thursday Nights: 12-14-2
Ultimately, the Panthers failed to cover because Cam Newton wasn't good enough. I don't know if that counts as a hot take or not, but he put up fraud numbers. Compare his traditional stats to Luck:

  • Luck: 23/47, 231 yards (4.9 yards per attempt), 2 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
  • Newton: 16/35, 248 yards (7.1 yards per attempt), 2 touchdowns, 1 interception
When you get into advanced stats (I don't even really know if QB Rating counts as advanced because it's just based on those traditional numbers), Newton outplayed Luck 76.8 to 50.9. 

But when you get into QBR - which is actually at least a little advanced because we're now factoring in the likelihood of scoring points and winning games - Luck was a pretty terrible 34.8. Newton was even worse, at 33.9. 

Maybe Cam can ride his defense to some success this season like he's done so far. But Carolina's 7-0 has come against these guys:
  • Jaguars (2-5, -60 point differential)
  • Texans (3-5, -31)
  • Saints (4-4, -21)
  • Buccaneers (3-4, -36)
  • Seahawks (4-4, +27, third place in the NFC West)
  •  Eagles (3-4, +23, third place in the NFC East)
  • Colts (3-5, -30)
This is a fraud team, and the Packers -2 at Carolina is a steal next week. I love betting on a good team that just got smacked, and I love betting against an overrated team. I may bet my car on GB next weekend. 

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