Revisiting The Flyers Top 25 Under 25

Each summer, the wonderful folks at Broad Street Hockey dot com put together the Flyers Top 25 Under 25, a comprehensive look at the most talented youngsters in the organization. They have a whole panel of people who vote, and this year they also included a fan vote component.

I gave you my picks a little more than a month ago, and the announcement of Ivan Provorov as #3 today solidifies the entire BSH list (Couturier will be #1 and Gostisbehere will be #2). Let's take a look at where I disagree with the rest of the gang.

Ivan Provorov (#3 for BSH, #5 for me)

I will admit that I was probably wrong on this one, especially after seeing him live in training camp and watching him stay well above afloat in 51 minutes of ice time in two preseason games. He's number three. That's fine.

For the purposes of my exercise, though, I placed proven NHL readiness above potential. Potential is great, and you need your prospects to have potential, but Oliver Lauridsen had potential and now he plays for a team called Jokerit.

Provorov is not Lauridsen. He has the size (though not as much as Big Oliver), but he also has the skate and stick skills and the hockey sense to succeed in the NHL.

Travis Konecny (#4 for BSH, #9 for me)

If Provorov was a whiff for me, Konecny was me swinging so hard that I threw the bat into the stands and hit my own grandmother with it.

He was the most impressive player on the ice in the session of training camp I got to see, with the exception of maybe Wayne Simmonds.

He was also - unquestionably - the most impressive player on the ice last night against the Devils. The size and the durability (and the likely lack of a spot for him) will probably send him back to Sarnia, but his offensive ceiling is certainly higher than the two guys I had behind Coots and Ghost.

Scott Laughton (#6 for BSH, #3 for me)
Nick Cousins (#8 for BSH, #4 for me)

So let's talk about those two guys. I had them ranked this high, admittedly probably too high, because I know they can put on a Flyers jersey and have a moderate amount of success against NHL competition.

Names above and below this group in this post will likely outperform Laughton and Cousins over the next decade, but for now I value proven-ness more than potential.

Taylor Leier (#14 for BSH, #6 for me)

As far as forwards go, he's basically the next man up behind Laughton and Cousins in the system. Or, at least, he was when I ranked him sixth. Now he's probably facing competition from Jordan Weal and Roman Lyubimov, but his name is certainly in the conversation for "AHL call-up under the age of 25."

He's had a really quiet training camp, so quiet that I'm actually wondering if he might be injured. As usual, Charlie O'Connor to the rescue. Here's what he said about Leier's performance last night:

#7: Leier was feisty, quick, and active 

I'm not quite sure where Taylor Leier stands with the Flyers' organization right now. He took a step forward in terms of production last season in the AHL and even received a cup of coffee in Philadelphia, but there doesn't appear to be a clear path to NHL playing time right now considering the team's depth in the bottom-six.

Regardless of whether Leier has any chance at all of making the Flyers out of camp, he certainly played like a guy who wants a shot. Leier is more quick than fast, but he has good instincts for where the puck will end up and isn't afraid to arrive there in ill humor despite his small-ish size. He took three shots in the game, and was active all night long.

If something goes awry with any of the Laughton/Cousins/Read/Lyubimov/Bellemare guys and they need a quick fix, Leier seems to be the guy that would be best suited for plugging the hole.

Oskar Lindblom (#12 for BSH, #16 for me)

If the hole that needs to be plugged happens to be a more skilled position, then enter Lindblom. Honestly, I wouldn't mind having to throw him an Konecny in the top six and just letting them play with Giroux and Voracek. That'll never happen though, and it'll be up to Lindblom to succeed in the AHL to prove he's worthy of a look in the NHL.

Travis Sanheim (#5 for BSH, #7 for me)
Sam Morin (#7 for BSH, #8 for me)

As for the "other" defensive guys not named Ivan Provorov, it's been an interesting camp. They both figure to play the full year with the Phantoms, but they've shown flashes of NHL skills. Sanheim's ability with the puck on his stick is breathtaking, and Morin's physical tools have people hoping he's Oliver Lauridsen 2.0 (maybe that's a bad analogy).

There are a lot of call-up options on the defensive side if Ron Hextall needs to stop a leak for a short-term injury, but it'd be nice to see Sanheim (for Ghost/MDZ/Streit) or Morin (for Gudas/Manning) if something like that happens.

German Rubtsov (#10 for BSH, #20 for me)

I literally don't know anything about this year's first round pick. That's a simple answer. Sorry.

Robert Haag (#11 for BSH, #11 for me)
Philippe Myers (#15 for BSH, #15 for me)

The only two players that we had ranked in the same slot are the final two big-name blueline prospects. Although, I bet if you gave people the option to vote again there would be a really sizable group of people who took Myers over Haag.

It seems like the floor for both of these guys is the AHL. Their NHL ceilings are different because they play the game differently, but they both possess a balance skillset that would make it a surprise to see them truly "fail."

Jordan Weal (#16 for BSH, #26 for me)

Whoops, I went through and made my whole list and completely forgot to include Jordan Weal. He turns 25 in the Spring, though, so he will be out of this pool in seven months anyway.

My Flyers Top 25 Under 25 Ballot

As we move closer toward the end of the summer and the start of the next NHL season, it's time for one of the most informative segments on SB Nation's Broad Street Hockey, the Top 25 Under 25. BSH does a phenomenal job of this young gun/prospect ranking, and honestly it would be very helpful if the 29 other NHL teams did it as thoroughly as the Flyers site. (Trivial annoyance: I try to include other team's prospects in fictional trades and I never know how good any of their young guys are because we're spoiled in Philly and nobody else does it like BSH.)

Something new that they're rolling out this summer is the ability for readers of the site to contribute to the overall ranking.

And, without any more of me complaining about the rest of the SB Nation hockey blogs not being as good as Philly, here's my ballot.

Not Included

Brayden Schenn turned 25 today - happy birthday - and thus is no longer under 25.

Currently In The NHL

1. Sean Couturier

Some people may have the urge to have a certain phantom grizzly in the first spot, but it's Coots. I love Shayne as much as just about anyone, but Couturier is already SO important to the current roster that nobody could reasonably take this top spot from him.

His importance, largely, comes in the form of being able to take defensive pressure away from Claude Giroux. But (sorry for saying this again this year) he has a lot more to bring to the table offensively, and my hope is the signings of Dale Weise and Boyd Gordon also take some of the burden off of Couturier.

2. Shayne Gostisbehere

I can't really write anything that hasn't already been written, so just know that Shayne is the best and everyone loves him.

3. Scott Laughton
4. Nick Cousins

I waffled back and forth for my third and fourth picks, and it's an especially interesting decision because one of these guys will likely be exposed in the expansion draft next summer.

For me, Laughton's potential as a top-six winger outweighs Cousins' current role as a bottom-six center. That rings true especially when you factor in that GM Ron Hextall has his top two centers locked down for the rest of the decade. There are simply a lot more ways Laughton can contribute in a more meaningful way than Cousins.

Next Up

5. Ivan Provorov

I will not fault anyone who moves Provorov ahead of Laughton and/or Cousins, but for me the guys who have proven that they can hang at the NHL level are ranked higher.

That said, in looking at the guys not currently at the NHL level, it's impossible to have anyone ranked higher than Provy. He's going to - at some point - put on an orange and black jersey and immediately be the most talented defenseman on the team. Whether that is this year or next, I do not know.

If Hextall decides to send Provy back to juniors for another year, there will likely be a lot of people who are mad on line. I will probably be one of them. But, as nice as it would be to see him in the big leagues this year, think about how much nicer it will be to have a 22-year-old top-tier defenseman w
with a cap hit of $894k.

6. Taylor Leier

He has played a bit with the big club, but he's been primarily an AHL player up to this point. And Hextall has certainly not made it easy for him to return to the NHL; the Flyers have about a dozen guys capable of making up their bottom six next season. Leier seems to be the name that comes up most often when talking about Phantoms That Could Be Flyers.

7. Travis Sanheim
8. Samuel Morin

To a certain extent, having these two below Leier is the same logic as having Provorov below Laughton/Cousins. Sanheim and Morin, at some point, will likely contribute significant minutes on the blueline. Sanheim should eventually be a well-rounded NHL defenseman and Morin will hopefully break someone's entire torso against the side boards. But, for now, they are AHL players waiting for a broken penis to call them up to the NHL.

9. Travis Konecny

There will, without a doubt, be people in the final BSH rankings who rate Konecny significantly higher than 9th. But (unpopular opinion alert) I'm not sure his offensive skill is elite enough to overcome his size the way a lot of people seem to think it will. If you scroll down the end of the list quickly, you will find another smaller guy with a high skill level who can't seem to put it all together against NHL competition.

I'm usually really high on Tarvo, but for whatever reason I just got in a really negative mood before writing that paragraph. I'm sure he'll be great. Konecny-Giroux-Voracek, Stanley Cup 2018 here we come. (?)

10. Anthony Stolarz

I don't know what the fuck to do with these goalie prospects, but Stoli was an AHL All-Star last year. That has to count for something, right?

11. Robert Hagg

What do we make of Hagg? He's a gosh darn enigma. He's always been in the Ghost-Provy-Sanheim-Morin group, but he really fell off last year.

The good thing for him is there will be little to no pressure this season. There's not a spot to be had at the NHL level (and that becomes even more jammed if Provorov stays up for the season). He's not really competing for anything like Provorov and Sanheim and Konecny. He's going to be a solid AHL guy this year, and my hope would be the lack of pressure allows him to work on the skills he needs to be in the fight for an NHL spot in 2017-18.

I've Been Told These Kids Are Good But I Don't Really Know

12. Nicolas Aube-Kubel

He's been a point-per-game player in the QMJHL over the past three years, including the past two where he has been property of the Flyers. He'll make the jump to the AHL this year, and his name will maybe even be thrown in the mix of that dozen or so guys that could theoretically make up the bottom six of the Flyers.

13. Felix Sandstrom

He's the Flyers' best young goaltender not named Stolarz, and he's been tearing it up in the Swedish league and in the various national competitions he's competed it.

14. Cole Bardreau

I don't think anyone in the Flyers organization has made as much progress as Bardreau since the middle of last season. These days, his name finds itself Leier's in the "Phantoms That Could Be Flyers" discussion. He gets a lot of Danny Woodhead adjectives thrown around at him - gritty, hard worker, heart to make up for his size. He's going to have to battle to make it to the NHL, but Guys Like Him don't have a problem battling to overcome obstacles.

15. Philippe Myers

Myers could end up taking Hagg's place in the Young Defenseman pool. He's young, he's big, and he's not-so-quietly improving the offensive aspects of his game. And when you consider #47 and #55 currently on the Flyers roster, "the ability to have the puck on his stick and not have everyone on his team get nervous" might just be enough offense for him to be alright.

16. Oskar Lindblom

I'll defer to the recently-promoted Assistant General Manager of the Flyers, Chris Pryor, who will be able to better capture the essence of Lindblom with a bunch of vague cliches (source):

"We're really happy with where he's progressed. He's a lot bigger and stronger, and his skating has gotten better. The thing about Oskar is he always knew how to play the game. The kid has a great work ethic, head on his shoulders and you're starting to see the fruit of his labors paying off."

17. Petr Straka

He led the Phantoms in scoring for a chunk of last season until he got hurt, and lord knows this Flyers team could use an influx of scoring wingers. He's 24 and this is a contract year for him, so it's really Put Up Or Shut Up Time if he's ever going to make it to the NHL. His entry-level deal had an annual salary of $925k and this year's deal is only worth $650k. Prove us wrong, Pete.

These Are Some Other Names That I Know

18. Mark Alt

Mark Alt is the Perry Ellis of Flyers prospects. This man has been around for what feels like forever but he's only going into his fourth season in the system. Like Straka, Alt's on a one-year "Prove It" deal that pays him less than his entry-level contract.

19. Alex Lyon

Look, nobody knows a goddamn thing about goalies. Lyon could suck and be out of the organization next summer, or he could kill it in the AHL and give Stolarz some legitimate competition for the keys to the kingdom. He's highly regarded coming out of Yale, and the Lyon-Stolarz battle in Lehigh Valley might even make it worth the drive up North.

20. German Rubstov
21. Roman Lyubimov

What? You thought I was going to miss the opportunity to include the Rubs Off/Lube 'Em Off duo? Come on. #PleaseLikeMy tweets:

Here's hoping we somehow gets a Rubs Off - Lube 'Em Off combination at some point in the future #FlyersTalk

— Jay (@jaylike) July 11, 2016

22. Radel Fazleev

He's a big beefy Russian with good hockey sense and more offensive skill than you'd imagine for someone who is best described as Big and Beefy.

23. Carter Hart

He was the first goalie taken in this Summer's NHL Draft, and for regional dialect purposes it's a shame he didn't get drafted by the Bruins. But he'll now officially be on the radar, and he's competing with Stolarz, Lyon, Sandstrom, and Harvard's Merrick Madsen for the title of Goalie Of The Future.

24. David Kase

He's Czech, so he gets to play in bigger tournaments than he would if he was Canadian or American. That's about where we are at the end of this Top 25 exercise.

I Really Like Tyrell Goulbourne

25. Tyrell Goulbourne

He's small but he plays with the heart of someone who is 6'6"/270. Ten years ago he probably would have been a fourth line guy to balance out the enormous salaries of the Flyers' top six and top four.

Jordan Weal

26. Jordan Weal

Sometimes I forget he's even on the team.

These NHL Prospects Will Be The Reward For This Year's Sadness

Sadness, in an NHL context, is when you miss the playoffs and also miss out on a top draft pick. My Twitter friend Micah takes a variety of statistical figures into account to generate his daily Sadness Index projection. Here's where that stands as of today:

Furthermore, those attuned to Sadness should Continue to be Sad. pic.twitter.com/YnbNxqrwi9

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) February 17, 2016

Obviously, 16 teams make the playoffs. Micah's cutoff for missing out on "a top draft pick" is anyone lower than fifth. So,  there are going to end up being 9 teams that are #sad at the end of the year. Yet, somehow, 11 teams have a better-than-fifty-percent chance of ending up in one of those spots. Move past that.

Puljujarvi and Laine at the World Junior Championships

The top five picks, in some order, will be Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, Jesse Puljuvarvi, Matthew Tkachuk, and one of defensemen Olli Juolevi or Jakob Chychrun.

Let's take a look at the guys that are going to likely fall just outside the top five, because it seems like there's a pretty good chance the Flyers will end up drafting one of them. I use Eliteprospects for stuff like this because they compile several different scouting sites in one place.

Canadian defenseman Jakob Chychrun

Juolevi or Chychrun, whichever is not drafted fifth

Both of these defensemen project to be solid NHL talents, and no fan base would be upset to land either of them. They may not be a franchise-changer like Matthews, but they should both be blueline contributors for the better part of a decade.

Maple Leafs prospect William Nylander, who is substantially more attractive than his younger brother

Michael McLeod, Center
Alex Nylander, Winger

Currently teammates in Mississauga, they have been tearing up the OHL. McLeod is described as a "power center", which is an asset for any NHL team to be able to ice on any of its four lines.

Nylander is probably best known for being the younger brother of Toronto Maple Leafs prospect William Nylander, but the younger Nylander lit up the World Juniors for 9 points in 7 games.

Future Philadelphia Flyer Julien Gauthier

Pierre-Luc Dubois, Winger
Tyson Jost, Center/Winger
Julien Gauthier, Winger

Let me throw some more Canadians at you, because there are obviously a lot of them available because hockey. These three (plus McLeod) are Canada's four best forward prospects. Eliteprospects has quite a bit of info for each, and it's easiest to summarize it like this:

• Dubois has an unreal hockey sense and he's the prototypical "better than his physical attributes" kind of hockey player
• Jost is an incredible playmaker and I keep seeing the word "crafty" used to describe him. I see shades of Travis Konecny in his game
• Gauthier is a power forward, but he also has a surprising amount of skill with the puck on his stick. He might end up being the best forward in this draft behind Matthews and The Fins

Future Philadelphia Flyer Max Jones

Clayton Keller, Center

Max Jones, Winger

Kieffer Bellows, Center/Winger

Luke Kunin, Center

Alex DeBrincat, Center

There is a good chance that seven American forwards get drafted in the first round this summer. The two big names (Matthews and Tkachuk) should go within the first four picks, and it would be a mild upset if any of these five made it to the second round. 

Jones and Bellows are both described as "power forwards" with puck skills that match their projected draft positions. They both also play with pretty high-quality teammates; Jones is a London Knight with Tkachuk, Juolevi, Coyotes prospect Christian Dvorak, Maple Leafs prospect Mitch Marner, Bellows is a BU Terrier along with Ahti Oksanen and Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, who played for Finland and Sweden respectively in the World Juniors.

Keller is, almost across the board, projected higher than Jones or Bellows. But I can't find any information on him. He's a center, he's in the USHL development league, he's going to BU next season with Bellows, and he's on the smaller side at 5'10/170. Is he a playmaker or a scorer or an energy guy? I have no fucking clue. About the best I can find is this SB Nation story that talks about his "keen eye, soft hands, and creative mindset." He sounds kind of like Christian Grey, to be quite honest. 

Kunin, who plays at the University of Wisconsin, is decidedly a step below Keller/Jones/Bellows. But anyone who is a first-round talent should eventually turn into a top-nine forward unless something goes wrong. Luke (who apparently also goes by Lane, idk) has unquestionable skills in the offensive zone, but will have to develop the other 2/3 of his game to be a real elite player. 

I hate DeBrincat. He cheapshotted Travis Konecny in the World Juniors and he looked like crap every other time I watched him play. He has 179 points in 113 games between last season and this season, so obviously he's not bad, but he's just such a little shit that I can't see him being a player I ever actively root for. To be honest, I hope he falls to New Jersey (they're currently in spot 18, he's projected in the 20-24 range), He'd be a great Devil in that he's a son of a bitch and I hate him. 

Future Flyers defensemen Jake Bean and Travis Sanheim

Mikhail Sergachyov, Defenseman

Charlie McAvoy, Defenseman

Dante Fabbro, Defenseman
Jake Bean, Defenseman

How about we add some more blueliners into our pool? This group is one Russian, one American, and two Canadians. Serge plays in the OHL, Bean plays in the WHL, and McAvoy and Fabbro both play in college in the US. Suck on that, Canada.

Sergachyov is someone I haven't read much about, but he's a Russian and their style of play generates high-risk, high-event defensemen. His physical talent and his head seem to be able to justify his risk-taking, but I keep thinking about Evgeny Medvedev's defensive zone turnovers and I worry about how his game would translate to the NHL.

McAvoy currently plays for Boston University, and Fabbro will join him on Commonwealth Ave next year. As is the case with most defensive prospects, they are vaguely described as good in their own zone with offensive upside. That doesn't mean a whole lot, but playing together in one of the country's premier college programs should certainly benefit them both.

Jake Bean probably doesn't quite belong in this post. He's probably going to get drafted by a team that made the playoffs, which should suit him that much better. I see his name quite a bit because he plays with Flyers prospects Travis Sanheim and Radel Fazleev, and by all accounts Bean is just a shade below Sanheim for the Calgary Hitmen. Someone like Dubois or Gauthier or Jones would make a lot more sense for the Flyers, but I wouldn't be mad at all if Hextall decided to throw Beaner into the prospect pool of defensemen in Philly.