Friday, January 20, 2012

The Atlantic Divison's JPoints

Here you go, Dave. Ask and you shall receive. Here's the current picture in the NBA's Atlantic Division, in terms of wins and losses:

1. Philadelphia (10-4) (0.714 Win%) (0.388 Strength of Schedule)
2. New York (6-8) (0.429 Win%) (0.403 SOS)
3. Boston (5-8) (0.386 Win%) (0.442 SOS)
4. New Jersey (4-11) (0.267 Win%) (0.524 SOS)
5. Toronto (4-11) (0.267 Win%) (0.508 SOS)

And here's the current picture in terms of offensive efficiency:

1. Boston (37.3 JPoint)
2. Philadelphia (36.2 JPoint)
3. New Jersey (35.4 JPoint)
4. New York (34.5 JPoint)
5. Toronto (33.0 JPoint)

The reason Boston trumps Philly in efficiency so far is the following inhuman stat line:

R. Allen, SG, BOS: 0.500 FG%, 0.559 3FG%, 0.882 FT%

Without Allen, Boston's JPoint drops to a 35.1. Not bad, but certainly not best in the division.

To explain why New Jersey is ahead of New York, I present you the following lines:

Deron Williams, PG, NJ: 15.6 FGA, 36.6 JPoint
Marshon Brooks, SG, NJ: 11.8 FGA, 37.2 JPoint
Jordan Farmar, PG, NJ: 6.4 FGA, 38.7 JPoint
Kris Humphries, PF, NJ: 9.6 FGA, 45.3 JPoint

So, the guys getting the majority of the Nets' shots (55%) combine to average a 39.5 JPoint. That's obviously above the team average (35.4) in terms of offensive efficiency. Compare that to New York:

Carmelo Anthony, SF, NY: 20.2 FGA, 37.5 JPoint
Amar'e Stoudemire, PF, NY: 15.9 FGA, 35.7 JPoint
Toney Douglas, 10.8 FGA, 23.7 JPoint

That's 59% of the team's field goals averaging a poor 32.3, below the team's average. That's not good.

For a team to be successful, they have to make shots. That sound so barbaric but let's combine everything we've learned and predict what the standings should be (combining strength of schedule, offensive efficiency, and shot distribution):

1. Philadelphia
The easiest schedule, and the most balanced-efficient offense.
2. Boston
An easy schedule, and the heroics of Ray Allen.
3. New York
Significantly easier schedule than the #4 and #5 seeds, and the solid efficiency of everyone besides Toney Douglas.
4. New Jersey
Definitely falls in the bottom two (who are noticeable worse than the top 3), but played an easier schedule and distributed shots better.
5. Toronto
They have DeMar DeRozan in their starting lineup (13.5 FGA, 32.3 JPoint) and let him shoot almost as often as Andrea Bargnani (16.5 FGA, 39.1 JPoint). That sentence alone will secure them last place forever.

That's basically the actual standings. Eerily similar, right? It's really all about the JPoint.

Throw in that Boston's playing Phoenix tonight (should be a win) and New York's playing Milwaukee (probably will be a win), and the teams are still neck-and-neck. It's just pesky Ray Allen that's throwing a wrench in my stats and in everyone I play against in fantasy's win total.

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