Tuesday Night College Hoops Preview

Last night we had Nova over Georgetown. It was ugly. I don't want to talk about it.

Tonight, there are some matchups in the SEC, B1G, and ACC matchup that might be worth a look. We have dug quite a hole for ourselves (Saturday was a complete dumpster fire), and we need to climb out. Tonight's picks:

Ole Miss @ Georgia, 7pm, SEC Network
Line: Georgia -4, over/under 138

Ole Miss (11-6, 2-2 SEC): score 74.9 points per game, allow 67.0 points per game
Key wins: 75-68 vs Creighton, 66-54 vs Cincinnati, 79-73 @ Oregon, 65-49 vs South Carolina, 96-82 @ Arkansas
Losses: 66-65 (OT) vs Charleston Southern, 66-54 vs TCU, 81-74 vs Western Kentucky, 78-74 @ Dayton, 89-86 (OT) @ Kentucky, 75-71 vs LSU

Georgia (11-5, 2-2 SEC): score 72.7 points per game, allow 65.7 points per game
Key wins: 64-57 vs Colorado, 65-47 vs Seton Hall, 50-46 @ Kansas State, 70-67 @ Vanderbilt, 73-61 vs Florida
Losses: 80-73 @ Georgia Tech, 88-76 vs Gonzaga, 66-62 vs Minnesota, 79-75 vs Arkansas, 87-84 (2OT) @ LSU

There are only 30 teams in the country (and 2 in the SEC) that allow a greater percentage of opponent's points from the charity stripe than Ole Miss. The Rebs are bottom 50 in the country in opponent free throws attempted and free throws made per game, and are bottom 100 in opponent free throw attempts per field goal attempt.

Georgia relies very little on threes and very heavily on free throws (they are about average on percentage of points from twos). They shoot just 66.5% on free throws (254th), but they attempt 27.2 per game (2nd).

Georgia's guard combo of Charles Mann and Kenny Gaines account for about 24 points per game, but Mann's tendency is to score primarily from inside the 3-point line. Led by Marcus Thornton and Nemanja Djurisic (who combine for another 25 points) down low, the Dawgs grab 31.2% of offensive rebounds (119th) and 74.3% of defensive rebounds (55th).

Ole Miss has a similar (though not quite as strong) reliance on free throws to create points. Georgia is around the median nationally in both percentage of points allowed from the line and free throw attempts allowed per game.

On the boards, the Rebels are an interesting team. They grab 33.9% of offensive boards, which is good for 47th in the country. But on defense, they grab just 70.2% (207th). There is not a single player on Ole Miss that averages 5.5 or more rebounds per game. Part of this is coaching and strategy - they split their minutes up between a pretty large rotation, and they have 9 players that see significant playing time.

The balanced Georgia team will have to deal with Ole Miss' three-guard trio of Stefan Moody, Jarvis Summers, and Ladarius White - they average more than 40 points per game, and combine for about 8 rebounds and 8 assists. Moody and White can shoot from deep (and Summers does shoot, though he probably should not be because he's only shooting 29.2% from three this year).

Both of these teams play offense better than they play defense, and relying on free throws is a safe way to ensure you score points. I'll take the over here, but I would really like to throw it into a teaser and get it to 133 or 134.

You know what? I think Ole Miss is the better team of these two, and I'll throw them in the teaser to make it +8. Georgia is likely missing Juwan Parker - he only averages 5.5 points, 4 rebounds, and 1 assist, but he is a 6'4" guard and you can't afford to be missing that against Ole Miss.

Pick: tease Ole Miss +8 and Over 134

Boston College @ Syracuse, 7pm ESPNU
Line: Cuse -9

BC stinks. And their offense stinks most of all of the things they do that stink. Good luck with that against Syracuse's zone and Rakeem Christmas' 2.2 blocks per game down low (I'll take a player prop over 2.5 if you can find me one).

Cuse's 4-1 ACC record is deceiving because they have been playing a bunch of trash can dwellers. Their 4 wins are against Virginia Tech (RPI 207), Georgia Tech (73), Florida State (124), and Wake Forest (126). They also lost to Clemson, who the RPI rankings have as the 92nd best team in the country and the 11th best in the ACC.

I don't want Syracuse in this game unless it's teased. I don't want to bet on BC ever because they stink. So let's stay away.

Tennessee @ South Carolina, 9pm, ESPNU
Line: South Carolina -6.5, over/under 125

Tennessee (11-5, 3-1 SEC): score 64.3 points per game, allow 62.1 points per game
South Carolina (10-6, 1-3 SEC): score 71.0 points per game, allow 60.7 points per game

I'm going to go one step beyond our normal play for South Carolina (which is we say "tease Cocks", laugh like little schoolkids, and lose all of our money) and dig deeper. These teams have both looked too good for either of them to be favored by this much, except South Carolina has been slumping in SEC play and I'm intrigued as to how they are favored here.

South Carolina is just 1-3 in the conference and those games were against Florida (RPI 64), Ole Miss (43), Alabama (46, the Cocks' only conference win), and Auburn (43). So it's not like they got stuck with Kentucky and Arkansas early. They are just an average SEC team.

They've been struggling because they have been allowing a LOT of free throws. Florida shot 25-30 from the stripe, Ole Miss was 18-22, Alabama was 20-30, and Auburn was 26-33. To put it in perspective, if you score more than a quarter of your points from the foul line, you are in the top 20 teams in the nation. These are crazy foul shot totals, and the Gamecocks will never have a shred of success if that continues.

As for Tennessee's ability to exploit that, they rank 207th in the country in percentage of points from free throws (20.4%), and they shoot/make just 19.4/13.1 foul shots per game (215th/242nd). The Vols make just 67.2% of their free throws, which is a pretty lackluster number. But in terms of average free throws per game, the 4 SEC teams that South Carolina has played average 16.9 attempts (310th), 21.9 attempts (104th), 22.4 attempts (77th), and 24.9 (23rd). Even with the fact that those numbers are inflated by their games against South Carolina, those teams get to the line quite a bit.

I don't expect that trend to continue. I think the Cocks will play with a lot of discipline, because none of them want to deal with Frank Martin screaming about fouls all night.

Pick: South Carolina -6.5 (or you can tease Cocks, if you're into that)

#25 Iowa @ #6 Wisconsin, 9pm, ESPN
Line: Wisconsin -9.5

I am largely unimpressed with Iowa this year. Other than their win at UNC (which, to their credit, was impressive), they look like a team that is properly ranked in the 20s. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has been tested very few times this year and looks (mostly) like a team that could win it all.

The Badgers' 10-point loss at home to Duke has no bearing on this game because Jahlil Okafor completely nullified Frank Kaminsky and the Devils shot 65% as a team. Iowa is not going to do that to Wisconsin.

However, the Badgers did drop another game this season. They went to Rutgers (never a good idea) and lost 67-62. Mr. Kaminsky did not play (concussion) and starting guard Traevon Jackson left halfway through with a broken foot. Rutgers shot 14.3% better from the field than their season average, and the Badgers were an abysman 5-21 from three.

Frank is back now - he scored 22 points last week against Nebraska - but Traevon is down for a while. His replacement, Bronson Koenig, is named Bronson and comes from the town of La Crosse, Wisconsin, So you know he's pretty chill. But as far as the skills he brings to the table (Traevon was good for 10 points, 3 assists, and 2 rebounds), Bronson shoots similar percentages and seems to turn the ball over less. Anybody playing for Wisconsin is going to be talented, and he is - he was the 35th-best guard in the class of 2013 and the 6th best player from the state of Wisconsin.

So the only thing that worries me is foul trouble, because Bo Ryan cannot afford to lose bodies from what is now a 6 (maybe 7) man rotation. A quick check of TeamRankings will tell you that Wisconsin commits the fewest fouls per game of any team in the country (just 13.4) and allows the fewest free throw attempts against per game (12.4).  Iowa is in the middle of the pack with 18.4 fouls drawn per game (163rd), though they do attempt 23.4 free throws per game (45th).

Iowa's big strength is their frontcourt, but I trust Kaminsky and fellow forwards Nigel Hayes, Sam Dekker, and Duje Dukan to handle their business. The over/under is set around 130 in this game, and I think the only way Wisconsin will cover that is if the total goes way over.

Pick: Wisconsin -5.5 seems like a nice addition to the tease bag

Part of dealing with crippling gambling losses is rebuilding your confidence. I don't feel too confident about anything, so I am (clearly) in the mindset to tease everything. Tonight I like teasing (1) Ole Miss and their over and (2) South Carolina and Wisconsin.

If you are feeling particularly fragile and want a big tease, you can throw Ole Miss +12, South Carolina +1.5, Wisconsin -1.5 at the wall and hope Tennessee doesn't ruin everything.

Saturday's College Hoops Viewing/Betting Guide

Tomorrow is a monstrous day in college basketball. ESPN's scoreboard is showing 16 games featuring 21 of the 25 ranked teams (including 4 against 6, 8 against 10, 9 against 11, 16 against 20, and 18 against 24), as well as about half a dozen more games featuring solid power conference matchups.

Tomorrow's lines aren't up yet on the sites that I have access to, so I'm going to take a stab and try to gauge where I'd want the lines to be in order to bet. I might not get to all the games, but I'll hit the big ones.

Now presenting, in chronological order, your Saturday betting and viewing guide (opening lines from Sportsbook.ag as of early Saturday morning):

#4 Duke @ #6 Louisville, 12pm, ESPN
Coming out of the gate hot! I think Duke will be a really narrow favorite here, because the general thought is there's no way this team loses three in a row. I just was not impressed by Duke when they played NC State. Then they followed it up by shitting the bed at home against Miami. Now they have to go on the road to a 23,000-person stadium for the second biggest game of the season. Louisville held Kentucky to 58 points and lost by 8. Their only other loss this season was by one point at UNC. If Louisville gets points, hammer it.

(Louisville -3.5, hate it!)

NC State @ Florida State, 1:30pm, ESPN3
I wanted to include this game because NC State should win by at least half a dozen. If there's a narrow spread, take the Wolfpack.

(NC State -2, I'm in)

#2 Virginia @ Boston College, 2pm, ESPN3
BC stinks. Virginia, conservatively, should win this game by 20 points.

(Virginia -13, throwing it into the teaser bag)

#22 Baylor @ Kansas State, 3pm, ESPNU
Kansas State stinks. I have absolutely no clue how they're 3-1 in the conference. Baylor has actually been a little shaky recently. In my opinion, Baylor's shakiness and KSU's recent run of "looking decent" are both not reality.

(Baylor +1, highway robbery)

#3 Gonzaga @ Loyola Marymount, 4pm, Not on TV
Just do what you do for every Zags game - throw them in a teaser regardless of the spread. Per VegasInsider, through 15 applicable games they have covered 8 (pushed one), and that number goes to 11 if you make it a 4-point teaser). Easy money.

(Gonzaga -19.5, and the teaser bag grows. I'd like a big cushion here though)

#1 Kentucky @ Alabama, 4pm, ESPN
The Wildcats have played 3 conference games. In the first two, the Cal Cats needed a combined 3 overtimes to escape. In their most recent game, they won by 49. The crazy part is all three of those games were against teams in the same area (toward the bottom) of the SEC standings. I have no idea how this is going to go but I'm intrigued to see what Vegas thinks.

(Kentucky -9, and the tease bag grows)

Michigan State @ #14 Maryland, 4pm, CBS
I feel like these two just played each other, but it was just over two weeks ago. That, if you recall, was a 2OT thriller that legitimized Maryland as a contender this year. I don't care what the spread is, I'm going to take MSU because I think they're going to win this game by a wide margin (and I think they might even be getting points).

(Michigan State +3, big time yes)

Syracuse @ Clemson, 4pm, ESPN3
Don't look now but Cuse's "down year" is halfway done and they're tied for first in the ACC. Clemson, on the other hand, was supposed to finish toward the bottom of the pack, and that's where they are currently sitting. I'd love to see Cuse -4, but I have a feeling it might be steeper than that.

(Cuse -1.5, I'm in unless Cuse is missing a starter or something)

#16 West Virginia @ #20 Texas, 6:15pm, ESPN
Sixteen is too low for WVU, and twenty seems about right for Texas. I expect the Mountaineers to be favored by just enough for us to not like it. This is a big tease candidate because I think it's going to be a 3-5 point spread and it might end up being a close game. I'd love a little cushion, but if it's WVU -3 then we don't even need it.

(West Virginia +2, yes!)

#5 Villanova @ Penn, 7pm, ESPN3
The Villanova strategy is very similar to the Gonzaga one - tease the Cats spread and (a recent addition to the strategy) the over. Through 16 valid games, they've covered 11 spreads and gone over 7 times. Add a 4-point tease and those numbers move to 12 spreads and 8 overs. For what it's worth, a lot of the games that went under were Villanova stifling its opponent and holding them to scores in thr 60s, 50s, and even 40s. This is one of those times - Penn might only score 25 points. Take Nova, but maybe think about teasing them if the spread's above 20.

(Villanova -18, think I'd prefer a tease)

#8 Utah @ #10 Arizona, 7pm, Pac-12 Network
This game is going to be tight. I don't want to pick either side to win because it really is a toss-up, but Utah has been mowing teams down and I'm intrigued at the though of them actually getting points. I cannot fathom how this isn't on a bigger channel because it's probably the game of the day.

(Utah +4 is a really interesting proposition)

#9 Kansas @ #11 Iowa State, 9pm, ESPN
I hate this game because I think Kansas is going to win, but home court in a big conference game like this can really swing things. If it was in Lawrence, I'd say take Kansas to cover regardless of the spread. Because it's in Ames, I'm not so sure. Kansas just barely beat Baylor on the road, and their collapse at Temple has me nervous. (Cuban voice) and for that reason, I'm out.

(Kansas +4, in case you want to bite)

Connecticut @ Stanford, 9pm, ESPN2
In my mind, UConn should win the American every single year. Apparently that's not actually accurate, because they're 2-2 and in the middle of the conference this year. Tulsa is undefeated though, who knew? UConn has one impressive win (at Florida), and a whole slew of losses (West Virginia by 10, Texas by 1, Yale by 1, Duke by 10, Temple by 4, Tulsa by 8). Stanford is in the Utah-Arizona range in the Pac-12, and they've taken care of everyone they were supposed to this season except @ Depaul (who shot 54% from the field and 50% from 3, and won the turnover battle 21-13), @ BYU (Stanford lost by 2 despite allowing 29 free throw attempts), and @ UCLA (they lost in 2 overtimes UCLA with 4 players with 4+ fouls). I think the nerds win pretty easily.

(Stanford -4.5, please and thank you)

So our teaser for the day is Virginia, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Villanova (which also happens to be an extremely possible Final Four). And then we also have NC State, Baylor (maybe), Michigan State, Syracuse, West Virginia, and Stanford. 

Tuesday Night College Hoops Preview

The biggest college hoops games of the night - which both happen to be Big XII showdowns - are also the only games that should be single-digit affairs. Yes, Kentucky/Duke/Louisville/Virginia could all blow it, but each of those teams is favored by at least two touchdowns.

The Big XII is a really solid conference this year, and four of its top five teams play each other tonight. So we're going a little west and a lot south to preview Cowboys-Jayhawks and Sooners-Mountaineers, and hopefully we'll all get rich.

#24 Oklahoma State @ #9 Kansas, 7pm, ESPN2
Line: Kansas -7.5

Oklahoma State (12-3, 2-1 Big XII , 4th in the conference)

• 71.7 points per game (94th)
• 58.6 points against per game (27th)
• 36.3 rebounds per game (115th)
• 72nd toughest schedule (6th in the conference)

Kansas (13-2, 2-0 Big XII, 1st in the conference)

• 71.2 points per game (105th)
• 63.1 points against per game (118th)
• 38.7 rebounds per game (41st)
• 1st toughest schedule (1st in the conference)

Where OK State gets its points:

• 46.5% from twos (285th-highest in the country)
• 31.1% from threes (99th)
• 22.3% from free throws (104th)
• Shooting 51.8% on twos (41st), 34.0% on threes (160th), 70.3% on free throws (133rd)

How teams score their points against Kansas:

• 51.3% from twos (193rd-lowest)
• 31.0% from threes (278th)
• 17.6% from free throws (55th)
• Opponent shooting percentage of 44.5% on twos (83rd-lowest), 33.8% on threes (182nd), 64.7% on free throws (46th)

If the Cowboys are going to pull off this upset, they are going to do it from deep. They attempt about 21.5 threes per game, and it seems like this is a game where one of two things will happen; either Kansas will stifle them and it won't be a close game, or the 'Boys will shoot the lights out and keep it real close. 

Where KU gets its points:

• 49.6% from twos (215th-highest)
• 27.5% from threes (194th)
• 22.8% from free throws (82nd)
• Shooting 45.3% on twos (258th), 39.5% on threes (20th), 71.1% on free throws (100th)

I think Kansas' shooting percentage on twos would be 10 points higher if Perry Ellis didn't take ten 18-foot jump shots per game, but they shoot impressively well from deep on their 16.5 triples attempted per game. 

How teams score their points against Oklahoma State:

• 49.6% from twos (123rd-lowest)
• 29.1% from threes (214th)
• 21.2% from free throws (202nd)
• Opponents shooting 42.0% on twos (23rd), 31.4% on threes (87th), 66.8% on free throws (99th)

Important games to note for OK State:

• Lost 75-49 @ South Carolina (12/6) - shot 24.6% from the field and 5-24 from deep
• Won 73-55 @ Memphis (12/13) - shot 47.6% from the field, 5-13 from three, 28-36 from the foul line
• Lost 73-64 at home to Maryland (12/21) - shot 8-27 from three and 4-9 from the free throw line
• Won 74-72 (OT) @ Mizzou (12/30)
• Won 61-47 at home against Kansas State (1/3) - shot 48.9% from the field, 8-21 from three, and Kansas State kind of sucks this year
• Lost 63-61 @ Iowa State (1/6)
• Won 69-58 at home against Texas (1/10) -  let me put on my hot take hat and tell you that Texas is super overrated this year

Important games to note for Kansas:

• Beat Michigan State 61-56 (11/30)
• Beat Florida 71-65 (12/5)
• Beat Utah 63-60 (12/13)
• Lost 77-52 @ Temple (12/22) - Temple shot 58.3% from the field and help Kansas to 32.1%, and Temple's three-headed-guard-monster went for 54 points and 9 assists 
• Beat UNLV 76-61 (1/4) - shot 44.8% from the field and 42.1% from three, and held UNLV to to 30.4% from three while out-rebounding them 45-31
• Won 56-55 @ Baylor 
• Crushed Texas Tech 86-54 (1/10)

Kansas is rolling right now. Mason-Selden-Oubre-Ellis-Traylor-Alexander might be the best top 6 in the Big XII, and their only real weakness is the lack of an elite center/post player/defensive stopper. Against Oklahoma State (who lists all of their forwards as F-C instead of just F), it shouldn't be a big issue - OSU's leading rebounder/blocker is 6'8" Michael Cobbins. For size comparison purposes: Cobbins weighs as much as the 6'5" Wayne Selden. 

Pick: Kansas -7.5. Would I prefer this teased down 4 points? Absolutely. Do I trust this Kansas team enough to take care of business at home? Absolutely-er. 

#18 Oklahoma @ #16 West Virginia, 7pm, ESPNNews
Line: WVU -2.5

Oklahoma (11-4, 2-1 Big XII, 5th in the conference)

• 72.9 points per game (64th)
• 59.4 points against per game (36th)
• 40.3 rebounds per game (17th)
• 44th toughest schedule (3rd in the conference)

West Virginia (14-2, 2-1 Big XII, 3rd in the conference)

• 78.4 points per game (21st)
• 62.0 points against per game (86th)
• 38.9 rebounds per game (38th)
• 56th toughest schedule (4th in the conference)

Who beat West Virginia:

• LSU 74, WVU 73 (12/4) - the Tigers shot 46.4% from the field, 8-15 from deep, and 14-18 from the free throw line. They held West Virginia to 34.3% from the field and just 5-17 on three pointers. The Tigers out-rebounded the 'Eers 44-35. LSU got the win despite losing the turnover battle 24-12.
• Iowa State 74, West Virginia 72 (1/10) - the Cyclones shot a neat 25-50 from the field. They were only 6-17 from the field, but they got to the line a LOT and finished 18-27 on free throws. WVU shot 32.4% from the field, 24.1% from three, and lost the turnover battle 18-9. It's really a credit to them that they found a way to win. They attempted 18 more field goals, and really this game was only close because they grabbed 18 offensive rebounds. 

Who beat Oklahoma:

• Creighton 65, Oklahoma 63 (11/19) - neither team played well
• Wisconsin 69, Oklahoma 56 (11/28) - Wisconsin is an elite team, or so we thought. Neither team shot exceptionally well, but Wisconsin won the turnover battle 21-11 and the assist battle 19-6. That's just one team being a head above the other. 
• Washington 69, Oklahoma 67 (12/20) - two evenly matched teams, Washington just shot the ball well enough to overcome their turnovers
• Kansas State 66, Oklahoma 63 (1/10) - I touched on KSU and how they stink earlier, but Oklahoma stunk more this game. They shot 40.4% from the field, 33.3% from three, 63.2% from the line, and lost the rebounds/assists/turnovers battles. Woof. 

At this point, I'm leaning towards WVU. I think they are underrated, and I think Oklahoma is properly rated in the late teens. I just want to confirm some stats to make sure this isn't a bonehead bet.

Oklahoma gets 53.9% of its points from two pointers, which is 98th-most in the country. That's the most heavily that OU relies on any area of the court (relative to other teams), and they shoot 49.3% on twos, which is a pretty pedestrian 119th in the country. 

West Virginia allows twos to make up only 48.6% of their opponents' points, which is 94th in the country. However, they allow their opponents to make 49.8% of twos, which is just 246th. 

On the other side of the ball, WVU also tends to lean pretty heavily on twos (55.2% of their points, 70th-most in the nation).  Similar to the Sooners, they shoot a less-than-stellar 48.0% from two (161st in the country). 

On defense, Oklahoma allows its opponents to score 54.5% of their points from two (76th-most in the country), but allows them to shoot just 40.6% (12th-lowest in the country). So figure that one out. 

Pick: I hate it. I hate this game and I hate betting it from either side. Stick with Kansas and save yourself the despair. 

Friday Night College Hoops Picks

Last night was heartbreaking. Statistically, LSU was the lock of the week. Then their two best players (both forwards, mind you) combined to shoot 7-23 from the field and just 4-13 from the foul line. The team as a whole shot just 36.4% from the field, 27.3% from three point range, and 56.5% from the free throw line. They left ten points at the charity stripe, which is NOT what you want to see when the game was tied at the end of regulation and the spread was just 2 points. LSU has 19 turnovers on the night, including two in the final two minutes that were passes dropped right out of bounds.

Credit to Mizzou, though. Without their star freshman guard with a French Canadian name and with just 7,500 people in attendance, they had 5 players score 9+ points (balanced between 2 guards and 3 forwards). With everyone healthy, they would have a pretty solid 8-man rotation.

But fuck, man. I have no idea how they beat LSU last night.

Tonight, there are only three games in all of D-1 college basketball. They are showdowns in the MAC, the MAAC, and the Horizon League. Here is the most degenerate post I have ever written on this site:

Akron @ Toledo, 7pm, ESPNU
Line: Toledo -5.5

What Akron (10-4, 1-0 MAC) does:

• 245th strongest schedule in the country (8th of out 12 teams in the MAC)
• 69.8 points per game is 138th in the country
• 60.4 points allowed per game is 55th in the country
• 35.6 rebounds per game is 153rd in the country
• Notable non-conference games: beat Southern Cal 66-46, lost 79-51 to Miami, beat South Carolina 68-63, lost 78-72 @ Penn State

What Toledo (8-6, 0-1 MAC) does:

• 208th strongest schedule in the country (6th in the MAC)
• 74.3 points per game is 46th in the country
• 68.6 points allowed per game is 240th in the country
• 35.9 rebounds per game is 134th in the country
• Notable non-conference games: lost 87-78 @ VCU, lost 78-68 @ Oregon, lost 82-79 at home to Detroit, lost 86-69 @ Duke

Going in, it seems like Akron +6 is going to be the easy play. Before the season, Akron was picked to win the MAC East and Toledo was picked to win the MAC West. This should be a heavyweight fight in America's favorite conference, but Toledo has been pretty disappointing so far this year.

Akron's preseason all-conference forward Demetrius Treadwell has played just one game this season (suspended indefinitely for assaulting a female). He only played the first game of the year, so the team stats pretty accurately reflect the team they'll have tonight (but that preseason ranking may not).

Toledo, on the other hand, has a pair of preseason all-conference guards, Juice Brown and Justin Drummond. They have played all 14 games, average 30 and 32 minutes respectively, and combine for 27.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.6 steals, and shoot 44.3% on field goals, 42.6% on threes, and 78.7% on free throws. 

Akron gets just 41.1% of their points from 2-pointers, which is the 10th-lowest number in the country. They are in the middle of the pack (240th) with 19.5% of points from free throws. They make it up by getting 39.3% from 3-pointers, 11th-most in the country. The Zips hit 34.8% of their threes, which is 127th in the country. 

Toledo allows their opponents to shoot 33.8% from three, which is 183rd in the country. They allow their opponents to get 31.2% of their points from beyond the arc, which is the 72nd largest percentage in the country. That looks to be advantage: Akron. 

On offense, Toledo is split pretty near the national average between twos-threes-ones (50.2%-28.3%-21.5%), and that balanced split comes with pretty impressive percentages for each: they shoot 49.4% on twos (117th), 38.0% on threes (42nd), and 74.9% on free throws (23rd). 

Akron's defense matches Toledo's offense in that they don't allow one area of the court to be dominated. Their opponents' split is 50.5%-30.3%-19.2%, so the Zips could be vulnerable to a team that wants to shoot (and can make) a lot of threes. Toledo is not an overly aggressive team from long range, but they can certainly stroke it if it's there. 

In terms of rebounds per game, Akron and Toledo are about as close as you can get. They each snag about 30% of available offensive rebounds, and Toledo snags about 1% more defensive rebounds. Call it a was on the boards. 

This game comes down to one thing: can Akron shoot threes as well as they have all season? If they hit their average for the year (which is right around Toledo's defensive average), then they will cover easily and might even win. Here's how Toledo fared against teams that like to shoot from distance (I cut it off at top-100 in terms of percentage of points that come from threes):

• Beat Northern Arizona 71-58 and held them to 6-22 (27.3%) from deep. NAU shoots 34.1% on the year and gets 32.1% of their points from threes, but they are a middle-of-the-pack Big Sky team so that doesn't hold too much weight.
• Lost 87-78 at VCU, who shot 9-25 (36.0%) from long range. VCU scores 35.0% of their points from distance (40th), and they shoot 35.9% on the year (100th). This is a more fair comparison, but VCU is undoubtedly a better team than Akron. A little bit of a too cold/too hot situation for these first two games.
• Lost 81-79 at Oakland, who shot 10-20 (50%) from three. For the year, threes make up 31.2% of Oakland's points (93rd) and they make 34.8% of their threes (130th).
• I left out Cleveland State and Chicago State because they get a lot of their points from three, but they also stink. I left out Duke because they are in a completely different class of talent. 
• Most recently, they lost 65-62 at home to Central Michigan, who average 40.9% of their points from three and make 40.5% of their threes (6th and 10th in the country). Against Toledo, CMU shot just 7-25 (28%). Toledo did everything they needed to do to win, except they lost the turnover battle 13-4. 

So where that leaves us is Akron should win. They should be able to shoot and make three point shots, and their 17.4% turnover ratio should mean they don't lose the turnover battle against Toledo, who turn it over on 18.8% of possessions. I don't love Akron, but 5.5 points is a lot - especially because they could blow it open and win by 10.

Pick: Akron +5.5

Quinnipiac @ Monmouth, 7pm, ESPN3

Line: Monmouth -1.5

There are 29 ESPN channels on TV, and this game is not good enough to be shown on any of them. Let's preview it! (Sorry, mom.)

What Quinnipiac (6-7, 0-4 MAAC) does:

• Lead the nation in rebounding with 46.0 rebounds per game
• Lose MAAC games by an average of 9.8 points per game, while out-rebounding those opponents by 10.5 boards per game
• Score 69.4 points per game (146th) and give up 68.3 (232nd) for the season
• Strength of schedule: 234 (4th in the 11-team MAAC)

What Monmouth (7-7, 4-0 MAAC) does:

• Dominate the conference (not actually dominating other than their 16-point win over Niagara, but they are undefeated)
• Score 64.1 points per game (268th) and give up 63.4 (121st)
• Strength of schedule: 255 (5th in the MAAC)

QU's offense:

• Just 42.7% of their points come from 2s, which is 312th out of 351 teams. They make 42.7% of their twos (312th)
• Just 21.0% of their points come from 3s, which is 316th. They make 28.8% of their threes (313th)
• Transitive property, they get 25.7% of their points from free throws, which is 16th-most in the nation. They shoot 23 free throws per game (60th), and they make 77.6% of them (4th)
• Their 41.9% offensive rebounding rate is the 4th best in the country (behind Kentucky, Baylor and UNC). That's even better than their 76.2% defensive rebounding rate, which is 26th in the nation

So Quinnipiac needs to get to the line to score points. Monmouth commits 19.3 fouls per game (222nd fewest), allows 19.6 free throws per game (148th fewest), and allows free throws to make up 21.6% of opponents' points (219th fewest). It seems like QU is going to be able to get to the line 20+ times, which is a huge plus for their chances. 

On the other side, Monmouth's offense:

• They don't lean too heavily on any particular area of the court, scoring 51.9% from two point shots (150th), 26.7% from threes (213th), and 21.4% from free throws (150th)
• They shoot the ball fairly well from all three zones (121st/141st/68th in 2s/3s/FTs)
• They grab only 25.1% of offensive rebounds, which is 284th in the country (their defensive rate, by comparison, is an even more terrible 66.4% - 307th)

Do you guys know any bookies who have a pointspread on the rebounding totals? I would like to hammer QU. No? No bookies have rebound lines for a Friday night MAAC game? I need to get some friends? What?

As noted above, Quinnipiac have shown that out-rebounding opponents doesn't turn into wins. To find out how they do that, let's look at how they've gotten their wins against teams in the top half of the RPI rankings (note: Monmouth's RPI is 186):

• Yale (RPI 65): Not a great sign for your tournament chances that the best team you've beaten is Yale, guys. Oh and by the way it was the very first game of the season, at home, and it took 2 overtimes. Yale shot just 38.5% from the field (they average 43.4%). They were just under their average from three and just over their average from the free throw line. QU out-rebounded Yale 54-38 and out-assisted them 21-11, and that allowed them to overcome their -6 turnover margin to squeak out the win. 
• Oregon State (RPI 125): Did people know that Gary Payton Jr plays for Oregon State? What an idiot! I'd be at Arizona State or FSU tearing it up. The entire state of Oregon is for people who wear flannel, and that is most certainly not what I think of when I think of Gary Payton. QU won this game because they dominated the boards (46-27, including 18-6 in offensive rebounds) and held OSU to 39.6% shooting (they average 43.9%). There have been games where QU dominated the boards but lost, but this was not one of those situations. 
• Lehigh (RPI 156): QU smoked Lehigh by 25 points. They out-rebounded them 53-30, out-assisted them 22-12, and (the biggest reason) attempted 18 more shots. Eighteen! That's what rebounding gets you, and that's the reason a solid rebounding team like QU scares me. 

I feel very similar to how I felt yesterday about the LSU-Iowa game. There is one team that is clearly better and they should cover the small spread. This game features a team that rebounds the ball but can't score, and another that has a very shallow 4-0 record and looks ready for their first conference loss. At the end of the day, you have to bet on the better team. That's gambling rule number one. 

Pick: Monmouth -1.5

Green Bay @ Milwaukee, 9pm, ESPNU

Line: Green Bay -9

The second half of tonight's epic ESPNU doubleheader is going to be a Horizon League beatdown. Tale of the tape:

• RPI ranking: Green Bay 63rd, Milwaukee 300th
• Conference record: GB 1-0, UWM 0-2
• Overall record: GB 12-3, UWM 5-11
• Avg margin against non-major D1 teams: GB 64.9-55.5, UWM 62.9-70.0

If you want to tease, then tease. I don't need to write a lot here, just take Green Bay and thank me later. 

Pick: Green Bay -9

Wednesday Night College Hoops Preview

The 3 games featuring ranked teams tonight feature a 3 touchdown spread, a Conference USA matchup, and a 10:30pm tip-off. No dice.

But there are two 7pm games games featuring conferences that matter and teams that are decent (and we can all be in bed by 9:30 because working is the worst). So we're going to look into them and hopefully find some easy money.

Michigan State @ Iowa, 7pm, ESPN
Line: Iowa -2.5

What MSU (10-5, 1-1 Big Ten) does:

• 5th in the nation in assists per game & 11th in assist/turnover ratio
• 27th in the nation in rebounds per game, made up of a 34.6% offensive rebounding percentage (40th) and a 78.3% defensive rebounding percentage (9th)
• 49th in the country at 74.1 points per game, made up of 53.1% from 2s (121st), 31.9% from 3s (85th), and just 15% from free throws (345th/351)
• 49th in the country at 60.1 points allowed per game, made up of 51.5% from 2s (196th), 25.6% from 3s (94th), and 22.9% from free throws (264th)
• 11th in the country at 40.1% from three point range
• In road games: lost 79-78 (OT) at Notre Dame, won 64-59 at Navy

Right off the bat, we can see three big things. They have an efficient offense that relies on a lot of three pointers and not a lot of free throws. They also give up quite a few free throws, but are otherwise pretty staunch on defense. Third, they are a great rebounding team. 

What Iowa (11-4, 2-0 Big Ten) does:

• 32nd in the nation is rebounds per game, made up of 34.1% offensive rebounding percentage (51st) and 72.3% defensive rebounding percentage (118th)
• 117th in the country at 70.7 points scored per game, made up of 49.6% from 2s (212th), 25.8% from 3s (228th), and 24/6% from free throws (32nd)
• 39th in the country at 59.3 points against per game, made up of 53.5% from 2s (264th), 29.0% from 3s (205th), and 17.4% from free throws (53rd)
• 78th in the country with 22.4 free throw attempts per game, and they make 77.7% of them (4th in the country)
• In big home games: beat Nebraska 70-59, lost to Iowa State 90-75

Matching this up with the MSU stats, we see that Iowa should have no trouble getting to the free throw line, but might have trouble scoring otherwise. They also appear to be in for a difficult night trying to stop MSU from the field. I'd call it about a tie on the boards, which is surprising because Iowa's four best players are two forwards and two centers (MSU has no centers on the roster and their tallest player is listed at 6'9"). 

The pick depends on how you feel about two pieces: (1) is MSU going to shoot anywhere close to their usual numbers? (2) does the home crowd matter enough? I would answer Yes-No and take Sparty +2.5, but it's not quite the lock I was looking for tonight.

LSU @ Missouri, 7pm, ESPN2
Line: LSU -3

What LSU (11-2, 0-0 SEC) does:

• 14th in the country with 40.9 rebounds per game
• 17th in the country with 16.8 assists per game
• 40th in the country with 75.6 points per game
• 10th in the country with 28.4 rebounds per game allowed
• 12th in the country with 6.0 blocks per game
• In road games: won 79-70 @ UAB, won 74-73 @ West Virginia
• 142nd-toughest schedule (3rd-easiest in the SEC)

What Mizzou (6-7, 0-0 SEC) does:

• Stink
• 240th in the country in points per game at 65.4
• 205th in the country in points allowed per game at 67.2
• Granted, they have the 30th most difficult schedule in the country (3rd toughest in the SEC)
• 242nd in the country with 33.5 rebounds per game
• 310th in the country with 10.2 assists per game

I almost don't even want to go any deeper. Just hammer LSU and count your money. But I will, because I want to make sure we're really going to call this a lock. And because life in the cube is a dull, dreary place.

How LSU scores:

• 75.6 points per game is the 34th-most in the nation
• 63.5% of their points come from 2-pointers, 4th best in the nation behind Presbyterian, South Florida, and Cal State Northridge
• Just 19.2% of their points come from 3-pointers, 16th-fewest in the country
• Just 17.3% of their points come from free throws, 39th-fewest in the country
• 0.291 free throw attempts per field goal attempt is 323rd in the country

How you can score on Mizzou:

• 67.2 points per game is the 205th-best in the nation
• 47.4% of points come from 2-pointers, 66th-fewest in the country
• 27.6% come from 3-pointers, 157th-fewest in the country
• 24.9% come from free throws, 43rd-most in the country

How Mizzou scores:

• 65.4 points per game is the 240th-best in the nation
• 49% of points come from 2-pointers, 229th-most in the nation
• 29% come from 3-pointers, 154th-most in the nation
• 22% come from free throws, 122nd-most in the nation
• 0.412 free throw attempts per field goal attempt is 89th in the country

How you can score on LSU:

• 65.6 points per game is the 172nd-best in the nation
• 57.7% of points come from 2-pointers, 25th-most in the nation
• 26.4% come from 3-pointers, 121st-fewest in the country
• 15.9% come from free throws, 23rd-fewest in the country

Rebounding:

• LSU grabs 33.9% of offensive rebounds (53rd)
• LSU grabs 72.0% of defensive rebounds (125th)
• Mizzou grabs 27.1% of offensive rebounds (224th)
• Mizzou grabs 70.2% of defensive rebounds (194th)

Players for Missouri that are not playing:

• Junior guard Deuce Bello is out. He averages 3 points and 1 rebound in about 11 minutes per game
• Freshman guard Montaque Gill-Caesar is questionable with back spasms. Bello isn't a big loss, but MGC averages 27 minutes, 11.5 points, 4 rebounds, and a steal
• That's almost a third of the minutes that Mizzou's guards play

This is such a steal my head is going to explode. LSU -3 is the unquestionable play of the night. Bet your Valentine's Day fund and treat your girl twice as nice next month. 

Villanova-St. John's Recap (I am the smartest man alive this morning)

Never underestimate the power of stats. A lot of times, we bet with our gut (or even worse, our heart) and it blows up in our face. But if you got into the deeper numbers for Nova-St. Johns, you knew Nova was going to win and you knew how they were going to win. Full post here, but here is the summary of my preview from yesterday:

"Villanova is going to be able to score quite a bit from both inside and outside the three point line"
 The Cats shot 55.7% from the field, made up of 24/38 (63.1%) from two point range and 10/23 (43.5%) from thee point range.

"Despite their tendency to play with guards, Nova crashes the boards"
Villanova outrebounded St. John's 41-21. Jesus. That's even worse than I thought it would be. They almost doubled them up, and they almost tripled them up in offensive rebounds (14-5).

"Daniel Ochefu has been showing off a surprisingly good post game and he will be tested against Chris Obekpa"
Advantage: Ochefu. And in a big way. Chief's stat line was 13 points, 13 rebounds, 4 assists, and just 2 fouls. Obekpa threw up 8 points, 5 rebounds, 3 blocks, and 4 fouls. I really want to take the opportunity here to note that two of Obekpa's blocks were on the same possession (and Ochefu got both rebounds and ended up scoring). Neither big guy played poorly, but Ochefu shooting 6/7 against "the nation's best shot blocker" really made the short shorts look ridiculous.

"SJU doesn't commit a whole lot of fouls, so a lot will depend on the referee crew"
Okay, I missed one. Sir'Dominic Pointer fouled out and Obekpa and Jamal Branch each had 4. This did the Jawnies in at the end - they basically play a 6-man rotation and can't afford foul trouble.

Nova-St Johns preview: -Nova is going to rain 3s and 2s -SJU is going to rain 2s -Nova is going to own the boards -Nova wins easily
— Jason (@jaylike) January 6, 2015

"Nova should cover and I love their team total over 68"

You're welcome. 

Tuesday Night Villanova-St. John's Preview

Coming off their worst stretches of the season (Nova's only loss and two of SJU's three) is a big weeknight matchup in the Big East. The Cats and the Johnnies make up 66% of the top tier in the conference (with those Seton Hall dicks, for now), and this game will establish who is favored to win the conference at this early stage of the season.

I went on TeamRankings (incredible site, by the way - strong recommend if you think numbers matter) to get some stats, and hopefully we can look a little deeper into this  matchup.

First of all, stats can't tell you some things. Rysheed Jordan (14 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists) is back for SJU, which is huge against a guard-heavy team like Nova. The Johnnies lost to Butler without Jordan, but they also lost to Seton Hall with him.

As for those Seton Hall Pirates, they stink. Yeah, they beat both of these teams. Okay. Fine. And I know the initial reaction to this is "Jay you're such a homer, shut up idiot." Fine. Alright. Here's how those Pirates won those games:

• Against SJU, Seton Hall shot 10/23 from 3 point range. SJU shot just 5/20. 
• Two of SJU's best players, D'Angelo Harrison and Sir'Dominic Pointer, both faced foul trouble and eventually fouled out. As a team, SJU was called for 25 fouls (between basically 6 guys). It's tough to win when you're in foul trouble. 
• Against Nova, Seton Hall shot just 2/15 from 3 point range. Villanova, however, only shot 5/24 (and just 31% from the field).
• Factoring out Darren Hilliard's 4/6 and Daniel Ochefu's 7/9 (they were both solid) and Josh Hart (more on him in a second), the Wildcats field goal shooting looked like this: 1/7 for JayVaughn Pinkston, 0/3 for Dylan Ennis, 1/9 for Archie D'Acono, 1/5 for Kris Jenkins, 1/3 for Phil Booth. I know that these are cats and not dogs, but WOOF. 
• Josh Hart. His stat line of 9 points, 5 rebounds (including 4 offensive), a steal and 2 blocks doesn't look too bad. His 3/13 field goal shooting also doesn't look terrible considering the rest of the team. If you watched the game, a lot of those shots were wide open. He was 1/6 from 3 point range, and most of them should have gone in. Hart's issue was the crowd. There was a point in the first half where he got tangled up, tried to trip one of Seton Hall's players, and then they showed it on the video board. The crowd let him have it for the rest of the game, and Hart simply wasn't up for the task. He looked like a lost puppy. Tough to blame the loss on him because he contributes in a LOT of other ways (he's one of the best rebound/three point/defense wing men I've watched this year), but you would have liked to see him stand up to the crowd and shove it in their faces. 
• All of that aside, Villanova lost the game at the charity stripe. The Cats were 20/35 from the free throw line. Excuse me while I violently throw up all over my desk. 

That was a really long detour for me to tell you that Seton Hall isn't really that good. Now back to the game that matters. 

Offensive Distribution

Here are some stats about Villanova's offense:

• % of points from 3's: 27.4% (189th-highest in the country out of 351 teams)
• % of points from 2's: 49.9 %(205th)
• % of points from 1's: 22.8% (95th)

Corresponding stats for St. John's defense:

• % of points from 3's: 29.3% (216th-most in the country)
• % of points from 2's: 52.9% (245th)
• % of points from 1's: 17.8% (66th)

Where that leaves us is Villanova is going to be able to score quite a bit from both inside and outside the three point line, but SJU's tendency is to not allow a ton of points from the free throw line. This is advantage Johnnies, because it means they normally won't have guys foul out (like they did against Seton Hall), but also means they will likely limit Villanova to precious few free throw attempts. Wait, that might be a good thing for Nova. We'll see. 

On the other side, here's how SJU splits on offense:

• % of points from 3's: 21.3% (312th in the country)
• % of points from 2's: 57.8% (33rd)
• % of points from 1's: 20.9% (169th)

And Villanova's defense:

• % of points from 3's: 24.8% (55th in the country)
• % of points from 2's: 57.9% (328th)
• % of points from 1's: 18.3% (78th)

This is a matchup of strengths against weaknesses, and it's going to be frustrating on both sides. Villanova allows, for whatever reason, a very slim percentage of points from behind the arc (relatively). SJU doesn't really look to score from there anyway. They do, however, like to pound it inside and drive to the hoop, which Villanova (playing with either a center and a small forward or just a small forward) has obvious difficult stopping. Look for Daniel Ochefu to focus on staying out of foul trouble and for JayVaughn Pinkston and Darryl Reynolds to spend some time with him clogging the lane. The Cats can afford to give up some looks to the conference's worst three point shooting team, because layup after layup would be devastating (and would kill Nova's chances for points in transition). 

The Boards

In terms of overall rebounding, Villanova is 152nd in the nation with 35.6 rebounds per game. St. John's is 65th with 38.0 per. But total rebounding is subject to so many factors - most notably pace of the game - that it's a useless old stat. I prefer offensive and defensive percentages:

• Villanova's offensive rebounding percentage: 33.0% (72nd in the country)
• Villanova's defensive rebounding percentage: 73.6% (85th)

And their opponents:

• Opponent offensive rebounding percentage: 26.4% (85th in the country)
• Opponent defensive rebounding percentage: 67.0% (72nd)

For the Jawnies:

• SJU offensive rebounding percentage: 26.5% (243rd in the country)
• SJU defensive rebounding percentage: 72.7% (110th)

And their opponents:

• Opponent offensive rebounding percentage: 27.3% (110th in the country)
• Opponent defensive rebounding percentage: 73.5% (243rd)

Advantage: Cats. Despite their tendency to play with 3, 4, or 5 guards at a time, Nova crashes the boards. Ochefu can soar for a big man, and guys like Hart and Hilliard often outrebound opposing forwards. 

Individual Matchups

The biggest one, for me, is Ochefu down low against Chris Obekpa. Chief has been showing off a surprisingly good post game in the past few weeks, and he will be tested (a lot) against the nation's best shot blocker (averaging 3.9 per game for the season and 5.0 in his last four games). 

It's not just Ochefu that's going to suffer. When Hart, Hilliard, D'Acono, and Ennis (especially Ennis) drive the lane, it creates space on the floor for (insert any name on the team basically) to hit open threes. If they're running into a brick wall early, that's going to hurt Villanova's half court offense. That said, let me throw another stat at you: Villanova shoots 0.442 free throws per field goal attempt, and they make 24.9 free throws per 100 possessions (good for 50th and 33rd best in the country, respectively). It's strength against strength, because SJU doesn't commit a whole lot of fouls - so a lot will depend of the referee crew. 

What The Fuck Does This All Mean

To be honest, I don't know. Villanova will play better than they did last game. St. John's will also play better than their past two. If both teams play to the best they possibly can, Villanova will steamroll St. John's. The inside/outside combination on offense (coupled with the depth of guys than can do both) is just too much for St John's 7-man rotation. 

Bovada currently has the spread at Villanova -4.5 (looking like it's going to move to -5), and has Nova's team points at 68. I'd bet my car and everything inside it on the over, because there is NO way Nova shoots as poorly tonight as they did against Seton Hall (ho hum, they still scored 61 in overtime). 

The picks: Nova should cover (don't even worry if it moves to -5 or -5.5), and I love their team total over 68 tonight.