Friday, October 28, 2016

The Flyers Lost To The Coyotes (Again)

Let me summarize last night's Flyers-Coyotes game in one tweet:
Whitey's goal made it 5-3 Arizona, and the two-goal hole was too deep for the Flyers to escape. Wayne Simmonds scored with 15 seconds left in the game, but the Flyers just ran out of time.

It was bad, and all things point to a bad night upcoming against the Penguins tomorrow.

But I want to check one quick statistical thing before we flush this game down the toilet of our collective minds.
How bad was he? And does my expected goals model agree with Charlie?

 Well, based on the number of shots he faced (25), and the division of time between 5-on-5 (38:18) and 4-on-5 (5:57), we would have expected Mason to give up 2.05 goals in last night's game. He gave up five. Let's do a deep dive (GIFs courtesy of Sons Of Penn):

Jamie McGinn, 1-0 Coyotes

People on Twitter make a lot of jokes about Andrew MacDonald retreating on defense. He's revolutionized the retreating game, here allowing Anthony Duclair to walk right into the crease untouched. There would have been a few ways for MacDonald and Shayne Gostisbehere to defend this, and MacDonald chose the path that results in an easy goal for McGinn like 90% of the time.

Oliver Ekman-Larson, 2-0 Coyotes

Let's dig ourselves a hole, boys! This play all stemmed from a phenomenal stick check from Max Domi, which led to the quick turnaround shot by Oliver Ekman-Larson, for which Domi screened Mason beautifully. It all happened in less than a second.

Martin Hanzal, 3-2 Coyotes
I mean come the fuck on, man. How the hell is this guy playing over Nick Schultz, Sam Morin, Travis Sanheim, Robert Haag, Philippe Myers, or Jesper Petterson?

Brad Richardson, 4-2 Coyotes

This goal was a trainwreck. If Provorov hadn't tackled Brad Richardson into Mason, he probably would have been able to brush the puck away and give the second powerplay unit another rush. So I have a hard time blaming Mason for this one. But, in general, having to dive to stop a breakaway while on the powerplay AND down a goal is so far from ideal.

Ryan White, 5-3 Coyotes

Two things. First, that goal is all on Mason, and it really sealed the game for Arizona. And second, we should of kept Whitey.

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