Monday, October 10, 2016

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week Six

I'm just now realizing that I skipped last week. It was a hectic week at work, and I'm sorry.

To start, let's rewind to Week Five. Washington killed Stanford. Tennessee squeaked by Georgia. Florida State had their hearts ripped out by North Carolina. Oklahoma beat TCU despite giving up 46 points total (including 22 in the fourth quarter). 

Alright, Florida State's dead. Let's fast forward to Week Six, and we'll start with those dead Native Americans. 

#23 Florida State beat #10 Miami, 20-19

The game itself was awesome - watch the highlights if you missed it - but not even The Block At The Rock (TM) can save Florida State's season. They're 1-2 in the ACC, trailing Clemson (3-0) and Louisville (2-1 with the tiebreaker over the 'Noles). 

Wins over Clemson on Halloween weekend and Florida on Thanksgiving weekend would be nice, but FSU would need too much outside help to win the ACC Atlantic. 

Confidence Level: Bad

#5 Washington beat Oregon, 70-21

I was pretty wasted on Saturday night (and all day, but that's not important) and I thought my brain was broken when I saw this score. This box score reads like one of Washington's games from earlier this season against Idaho or Portland State. 

Quarter-by-quarter the Huskies put up 21-14-21-14. Jake Browning threw six touchdowns. They ran for four more touchdowns, including two from Brown. They totaled 304 passing yards and 378 rushing yards, and they didn't have a single turnover. 

Oregon is pretty shitty, but trouncing a team full of Power Five-caliber players like this is pretty god damn impressive. 

The Huskies have a bye this week, then a game against Oregon State (ESPN's Football Power Index gives Washington a 98.1% chance to win) before a showdown with Utah - likely the only remaining game against a ranked team for them - on Halloween weekend. 

Confidence Level: Good

#9 Tennessee lost to #8 Texas A&M, 45-38 (2OT)

I fucking hate Tennessee, and I wish we had never signed up to root for them this season. Every single game, they do the same exact thing. They fall into a huge hole and just pray they can get out of it. They almost did this weekend, scoring 21 points in the fourth quarter to force overtime, and then Josh Dobbs threw an interception and that was the whole fucking game. 

The Vols are 2-1 in the conference, with the tiebreaker in hand over Georgia (2-1) and Florida (2-2). They will probably lose to Alabama next weekend, but then they have a manageable five games to end the season that should leave them with six or seven wins in the SEC. Florida and Georgia have decidedly more difficult schedules (including playing each other), so we should be Gucci. 

Confidence Level: Okay

#20 Oklahoma beat Texas, 45-40

Is giving up 40 points to an unranked team, including 27 in the second half, good? Probably not.  But that's Big 12 football, baby. A win is a win, I guess. 

There are three games left in the season that are going to determine who win the conference:
  • 11/12 - Baylor at Oklahoma
  • 11/19 - Oklahoma at West Virginia
  • 12/3 - Baylor at West Virginia
WVU having home field advantage certainly helps, and Baylor having to go on the road isn't going to make it easy. But all three teams control their own fate for the next two months, and it's going to be up to Baker Mayfield and Samaje Perine to not fuck anything up until that round robin starts. 

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