Monday, October 17, 2016

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week Seven

It was quite an up-and-down weekend for your boys. We had teams all over the place, and we have some good things and bad things to recap. We'll start with the easiest one.

#5 Washington Had A Bye Week

The Huskies remain fifth in the nation in this week's ranking. They trail the following teams:

  • #1 Alabama (host #6 Texas A&M this week)
  • #3 Clemson (bye this week, then travel to #13 FSU next week)
  • #2 Ohio State and #4 Michigan (play head-to-head the final week of the season)
Alabama will probably win out, and Clemson and one of those Big Ten teams probably will do, but there's a very real chance Washington could get into the playoff at the end of this season. 

Following this bye week, the Huskies have a manageable (but challenging) road to an undefeated season. If Washington and Washington State both run the table, they will play head-to-head the last week of the season for the Pac 12 North title, and possibly a playoff spot for the Huskies. 

Confidence level: High

#9 Tennessee Lost To #1 Alabama, 49-10


I mean, yeah, sure, Alabama is its own beast and they're halfway through an undefeated championship season. But losing by 39 points - to anyone - when you're trying to win the SEC East is not a great look. 

(Stephen A. Smith voice) However.

There are two things saving the Vols chances of winning the division and cashing our bet. 

First, they don't play any more ranked teams this year. South Carolina, Tennessee Tech, Kentucky, Mizzou, Vanderbilt. That's 5-0, and it moves them to 10-2 for the year (7-2 in the SEC). 

Second, they own the tiebreakers over both Florida and Georgia. So if all three of those teams finish 7-2 in the conference, Tennessee wins. Georgia lost to Vanderbilt this week, so we can just go ahead and pronounce them dead. It's not a two-horse race in the East. 

Florida's sitting at 3-1 in the SEC, currently atop the division. But their schedule the rest of the way is Georgia, #17 Arkansas, South Carolina, #25 LSU, #13 FSU. That's immensely more difficult than Tennessee's path, and I think we're gucci. 

Confidence level: High 

#14 Florida State Beat Wake Forest, 17-6

Only willing by 11 doesn't concern me because Wake's defense has actually been pretty good at limiting opposing offenses this year. 

What does concern me is Florida State trails Louisville by one game and Clemson by two games, and Louisville already has the tiebreaker over the Seminoles. 

Here's what has to happen for Florida State to win the ACC Atlantic:
  • FSU beats Clemson head-to-head on 10/29
  • FSU wins out in conference play against NC State, Boston College, and Syracuse
  • Clemson loses to at least one of Syracuse, Pitt, and Wake Forest
  • Louisville loses to at least two of NC State, Virgina, Boston College, and Wake Forest
What are the odds that all four of those things happen? Sky high, right?

Confidence level: Low

#19 Oklahoma Beat Kansas State, 38-17

Ho hum, Oklahoma put up a bunch of points and beat a team they were supposed to beat. They have to keep chugging along until mid-November, when they play Baylor and West Virginia back-to-back for the division. 

All three teams are undefeated in conference play (Oklahoma's two losses were to Houston and Ohio State, which won't hurt them for the purposes of our bet). They're in a class of their own, and they should all handily beat everyone else in the conference. 

It's a three-team round robin for the Big 12 title, and we're less than a month away from round one. 

Confidence Level: Like A Tiger, Waiting In The Tall Grass

No comments:

Post a Comment