Wednesday Morning Recap

For my money, college basketball is the best sport to watch if you're a gambler. Even now, more than three months from the most exciting tournament in sports, there is excitement all over the place. In Maryland's first B1G game ever, they took powerhouse Michigan State to two overtimes - and the game was in Michigan! Florida collapsed against Florida State, and I didn't even realize there were bowl games except for the ESPN Bottom Line (Georgia was easy money though, and I can't believe we missed it).

To the picks that we did actually make:

Ohio State -7.5 over Iowa 
Iowa won 71-65, so this was an early loss. Ohio State was 6-24 from three point range, including 1-8 from D'Angelo Russell. When you couple that with Iowa's 37-29 advantage on the boards, Ohio State really had no chance to cover. If they played again tonight, I'd take the Buckeyes again, but this was just a bad night in Columbus.

Virginia -16.5 over Davidson
Virginia won 83-72, and so we lost another one. They started really slow, trailed by 10 at one point, and were down 4 at halftime. They won the second half by 15, but it just wasn't enough (especially because the players weren't really playing to cover the spread).

West Virginia -8.5 over Virginia Tech (as part of a teaser)
This was Va Tech's first game against a real team, and it's nice to know going forward that they STANK. This game was a clinic. WVU won in field goal/three point/free throw percentages (and shots taken in all categories), rebounds 36-22, assists 21-9, steals 16-7, and turnovers forced 25-17. Easy cover.

Illinois +10.5 over Michigan (teased)
Towards the end of regulation, I was getting upset that we didn't just take Illinois +2.5 on its own. But then the game went into overtime, where Michigan outscored them 14-6 to win 73-65. Tease life pays off sometimes.

Maryland +14.5 over Michigan State (teased)
UMD won 68-66 in 2OT. If you listened to my advice and took the Maryland moneyline, you got rich. If you did what we did and teased, then you covered by two touchdowns and two extra points. Michigan State has a few good players, but Maryland just seems like they're better. Dez Wells is a BEAST and those huge white Euroballers seem to be doing well enough.

So we hit that teaser, which was nice (we basically covered the first two losses because we put double on the teaser).

Our late teaser, which I neglected to post, was Florida -3 and Kansas -10.5. Kansas was no issue, but Florida lost outright to Florida State. As I sat in my living room drinking beer from a Florida State pint glass, I just kind of shook my head. Gambling is the worst.

Tuesday Afternoon College Hoops Picks

Between today and tomorrow, there are 19 games that feature teams in the top 25. Sadly, none of them feature two ranked teams against each other, but that doesn't mean they won't be a great couple days of hoops.

One of the best parts of this "holiday" season is daytime games - today, for example, we have major conference basketball games from noon until the wee hours of the morning. Here's part one, your viewing and betting guide for this afternoon, 24-style:

Noon: Northwestern @ Rutgers
Line: Rutgers -3

They hit this line on the head. I think Rutgers is a little bit better, and I'd take them to cover simply because they're at home and a lot of their student section is local. That said, I really don't like this game all that much.

1pm: Iowa @ #20 Ohio State
Line: OSU -9

The Buckeyes have kicked the shit out of everyone except for Louisville and UNC (their only two losses). I'd expect this to be similar to their 74-63 win over Marquette, and I like them to cover against and up-and-down Hawkeyes team. Even though they went into Raleigh and beat UNC a month ago, this is a team that just shot .383 from the field (and gave up 70 points) against North Florida. Blowout city.

2pm: Virginia Tech @ #17 West Virginia
Line: WVU -16

Is this a rivalry game? Maybe/maybe not. But it is the start of a brutal stretch for the Hokies, who follow this game with games against Syracuse, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, Notre Dame, and Virginia. Woof. WVU has beaten NC State (83-69) and Boston College (70-66) in the ACC this year. But, because Va Tech hasn't played a single ranked team yet, it's tough to say how they'll show. I'd stay away, but if you can tease West Virginia down to single digits then I'd take it.

3pm: Illinois @ Michigan
Line: Michigan -2

There really isn't too much to say about the Michigan Wolverines, other than I have absolutely NO idea how they are favored over anybody. This Illinois team beat Mizzou and Baylor, and actually looked good against Villanova (even though they lost by 14.. go cats). The Illini's only losses have come against top-half teams in the Pac 12 (Oregon), ACC (Miami), and Big East (those Cats). I like Illinois here, floaters for days.

4pm: Cincinnati @ NC State
Line: NCST -4

Both of these teams are very, very average. My gut says Cincy, and I like that better than praying Louisville is able to cover 18.5 points against Long Beach State (same time slot). The Bearcats have a balanced, low-scoring attack - nobody averages 10 points per game. The Wolfpack, on the other hand, get major contributions from 3 players. Whichever way this game goes, you can bet that these will not be the top teams in the AAC/ACC at the end of the season.

5pm: #12 Maryland @ Michigan State
Line: Michigan State -6

Before I knew what the line was, I told myself I was going to take MSU regardless. But giving six points? Against a ranked team? That beat Iowa State and Arizona State on a neutral court and won at Oklahoma State? How could Sparty possibly be favored here? Brandon Dawson and Dez Wells will be returning to their respective teams, so there isn't too much difference there. Tom Izzo, your thoughts? "I just don't think we're in great shape," Izzo said. "I just don't think we're there." How is this team favored?! I want to see where the Maryland moneyline opens, because that's the bet here. If not, take them +6 just to be safe.

6pm: Davidson @ #3 Virginia
Line: Virginia -16.5

UNC beat Davidson 90-72 on a neutral court (but any game in the state of North Carolina is basically a home game for UNC). Virgina scores about 70 a game and gives up about 46 (that's best in the nation). Take Virginia and thank me later.

Picks: Ohio State -9, Maryland +6, Virginia -16.5, tease West Virginia/Illinois to -12/+6

Night game preview coming later (unless my boss catches me and I get fired).

Weekend Update

I wanted to use a picture from Kevin Nealon's time as the Weekend Update anchor, and there is one of him and Adam Sandler that summarized the start to this weekend well:

Our first best was Western Kentucky -4 over Central Michigan. If you're reading this, I assume you know that this game was a heartbreaker and made me want to crawl into a hole. Complete devastation.

But, as the old saying goes, if you are a shooter then you have to keep shooting until you hit something because that's what shooters have to do. So we sacked up and killed the rest of the weekend.

Boxing day teaser: Rutgers +10.5 over UNC (Rutgers won 40-21) and Louisiana Tech Pick'em over Illinois (La Tech won 35-18). The best place to be as a bettor is "Damn, we didn't even need to tease because we nailed those picks so well."

Saturday college hoops teaser: Kentucky -2.5 over Louisville (Kentucky won 58-50) and Gonzaga -1 over BYU (Gonzaga won 87-80). We are really high on the Wildcats and Bulldogs this year. If you happened to watch these games, you can see why. Kentucky held Louisville to one assist the whole game. One assist! And Gonzaga can score inside and out, and they seem a lot like this Villanova team we all love so much.

Sunday NFL teaser: Normally, we try to avoid having games from different times of day on the same ticket. Yesterday, we had games in all 3 time slots. Early, we had Saints +3 over Bucs (Saints won 23-20). In the afternoon, we had Packers Pick'em over Lions (Packers won 30-20) and Cardinals +14 over 49ers (Niners won, but only 20-17). So, if you're following, we were the night game away from hitting a +200 teaser. We decided to hedge our late bet of Steelers +3.5 by also betting a little bit on Bengals -3.5 (which paid +240). The way it set up, if Pittsburgh won, we basically hit +150. If Cincinnati won, we basically broke even. We hedged, so of course the Steelers won 27-17.

But hey, when you win your bet every day for three days, how much can you really complain?

Wednesday Morning Recap

There are nights where gambling is the best. You don't even have to win every game. But if you win more than you lose (or even if you only lose a little), and the games are that much more exciting, gambling is awesome.

Last night was not one of those nights. For starters, the two huge spreads I looked at were Louisville -25 against Cal State Northridge and Villanova -26.5 against NJIT. I hate Rick Pitino, so I didn't want to trust him to cover. I am still skeptical of Jay Wright, and it feels like Nova is ready to drop a heartbreaker soon.

Well, Louisville won by exactly 25. Villanova seemed like they might lose, then won the second half by 28 points and eventually also won by 25. When spreads get into the 20's, logic goes completely out the window.

The games we actually bet, Texas over Stanford and Arizona over UNLV, were two prime examples of gambling being the worst. Texas was supposed to compete for the Big XII title this year. They lost outright to unranked Stanford. 'Zona was supposed to be a top-5 team this year. They lost outright to Las Vegas University (fitting).

Obviously, neither team covered.

Worst of all, there are no college basketball games tonight and only 4 (in all of Division 1) tomorrow. Christmas is ruined. Fuck you, Las Vegas.

And fuck you too!

Tuesday Night College Hoops Picks

Last night was less than stellar. I just plain missed on a few - Wisconsin is really good, Providence is actually pretty decent, and Washington was mind-bendingly not good enough. But shooters gotta shoot, and there are a bunch of college games tonight featuring top 25 teams.

#3 Arizona (-13) @ UNLV, 10pm
Notable wins for Arizona: have beaten everyone they've played including Mizzou (72-53*), Kansas State (72-68*). San Diego State (61-59*), Gonzaga (66-63 in OT), Michigan (80-53), @UTEP (60-55)
Notable wins for UNLV: Temple (57-50*)
Notable losses for UNLV: Stanford (89-60*), @ASU (77-55), Utah (59-46*)

Zona is making their case here to be in the top tier with Duke and Kentucky (I'd round that out with Louisville and potentially Wisconsin). Losing this game - or even just barely winning - basically ends that talk. To keep this simple, that Utah "neutral site" game was played at the MGM Grand in Vegas. Arizona is better than Utah. Thus far, UNLV has beaten the mid-to-low level teams and gotten killed by the Pac-12 teams. That Temple win keeps looking better and better, but it doesn't look good enough.

Pick: Arizona -13 (and if you're teasing...)

#4 Louisville (-25) hosting Cal State Northridge, 7pm

Nope! You are most certainly not getting me to trust Rick Pitino here. Can't do it. Not picking this game.

#7 Villanova (-26.5) hosting NJIT, 7pm

Nope! You are most certainly not getting me to trust Jay Wright here. Can't do it. Not picking this game.

#9 Texas (-11) hosting Stanford, 7pm 
Notable wins for Texas: Iowa (71-57*), Cal (71-55*), @UConn (55-54), coming off a 78-68 home win over Long Beach State
Notable losses for Texas: 63-51 at Kentucky is their only loss
Notable wins for Stanford: UNLV (89-60*)
Notable losses for Stanford: Duke (70-59*), @Depaul (87-72), @BYU (79-77)

Bang! There's the other half of the Arizona teaser if you're into that. I think Texas wins easily because I don't think Stanford is that good this year. The Longhorns are obviously better at home than they are on the road, as they lost to Kentuky and barely beat UConn in their only two road games. But Stanford is not a great road team either - losing to BYU? Getting killed by Depaul? C'mon.

Pick: Texas -11 (and if you're teasing...)

Tuesday Morning Recap

The quick version is "not good."

The longer version:

Wisconsin def. Cal (+9.5), 68-56
Cal's first home loss and another step in the direction of Wisconsin being a legit contender for the Duke-Kentucky elite tier. The Badgers only shot .436 from the field (.273 from three), but were still able to pull off a cover by outrebounding Cal 39-29 while holding the Bears to .389 from the field.

Temple def. Kansas (-7.5), 77-52
This was similar to the Miami-Eastern Kentucky game in that it leaves everyone scratching their head and saying, "What?" It makes no sense! But when the underdog shoots .583 from the field and the favorite shoots .321, that makes for a pretty good chance of an upset. And it's not even like Temple is a defensive stalwart - before this game, they gave up about 63 points per game. That's somewhere around the 100th-best in the nation. Your quote of the night for this game, from Temple coach Fran Dunphy: "I think we played about as well as we possibly could have. It was our night."

Wichita State (-19) def. Loyola Marymount, 80-53
Ohio State (-22.5) def. Miami (OH), 93-55
Hey! We got one! Hitting on these two powerhouses against such scrub teams almost feels like stealing. Not that I'm complaining. And for what it's worth, betting on huge spreads like these does make the games incredibly more enjoyable to watch.

Washington (-13.5) def. Tulane, 66-57
-_-
How do you shoot .521 from the field, hold your significantly less talented opponent to .317, outblock them 9-1, have comparable measures for rebounding and free throw shooting and just narrowly lose the steals/turnovers battles...and then still not cover?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Providence def. Miami (-1.5), 76-62

I thought we had it at halftime. The game was tied, there were signs of life, and Providence stinks. Flip that whole thing on its head. Miami stinks, and Providence won the second half by two touchdowns. Miami has a week to regroup before they host College of Charleston, so hopefully they don't choke that one away too!

St. John's (-9.5) def. Long Beach State, 66-49

The Johnnies gave you everything you could possibly ask for out of a team in this position. They won the turnover battle 17-7, outshot the 49ers .450-.323, and kept the underdogs to a not-good-enough .318 from three point range. I'm being really nit-picky because they covered and there isn't much they could have done better, but there are two concerns I see from the box score: (1) St. John's basically plays with 5 players and no subs. The starters averages 36.4 minutes each, and the only bench player to play more than 4 minutes was Felix Balamou, who played 9. Rysheed Jordan didn't play because he was sick, but even a 6-man rotation doesn't leave a whole lot of room for errors or foul trouble. (2) Long Beach State had 15 offensive rebounds. 15! Jordan only averages 4.1 rebounds per game, and you'd expect a team with Chris Obekpa and Sir'Dominic Pointer to do better against Temidayo Yussuf, David Samuels, and Branford Jones (who?).

For the night: 3-4

Monday Night College Hoops Picks

Let's get back after it. Villanova finally failed to cover a spread (but still beat Cuse, so it's not the end of the world), and we lost our 8-bet heater. But, all streaks have to come to an end so new streaks can begin. That said, it's an awesome night for college hoops with 13 ranked teams playing (although only a handful are playing against teams from major conferences). I'm going to break down as many of them as I can until my boss catches me and I get sent detention for the day.

(Editor's note: between the time I wrote this up this morning and the games tonight, the new rankings came out. I kept both in, so it's set up as Last Week/This Week. For example, Wisconsin was #5 in last week's poll and is now currently #6.)

#5/6 Wisconsin (-9.5) @ Cal, 9pm

Notable games for Wisconsin: beat Georgetown 68-65 and Oklahoma 69-56 (neutral courts), lost 80-70 at home to Duke, won 49-38 at Marquette and 93-54 at Milwaukee

Notable games for Cal: beat Syracuse 73-59 and lost to Texas 71-55 (neutral courts), have won home games against Cal Poly, Montana, Wyoming, Princeton, and Eastern Washington

Initially I was going to pick Wisconsin and say 'Don't overthink it' - but then I overthought it. The only pyramid-caliber teams that the Badgers have played are Duke, Oklahoma and (maybe) Georgetown. Duke beat them by ten in their own building. They beat Oklahoma by 7 when the Sooners shot 37% from the floor and doubled their number of turnovers. They beat Georgetown by three. Georgetown! 

Pick: Cal +9.5 and it's my favorite pick of the day already. 

#10/10 Kansas (-7.5) @ Temple, 7pm

Notable games for Kansas: beat URI, Tennessee, Michigan State, and Utah on neutral courts; won 75-70 at Georgetown, beat Florida 71-65 at home, got killed by Kentucky on a neutral court

Notable games for Temple: lost 74-54 to Duke and 57-50 to UNLV (neutral courts), lost 58-56 at Saint Joe's and 85-62 at Villanova, have won home games against American, Louisiana Tech, Penn, LIU-Brooklyn, and Towson

My gut says this game is similar to Kansas' double-digit wins over URI and Tennessee. Home court advantage aside (Philly stand up), Kansas just has too much skill in the frontcourt and backcourt. Temple is a small-time team this year. They've been killed by the two legit teams they've played so far, and they've gone just 2-2 in Big Five games, getting outscored by 4 points per game. Part of that is Villanova, but don't forget that the rest of the Big Five stinks and Temple should have killed them. 

Pick: Kansas -7.5

#11/11 Wichita State (-19) against Loyola Marymount, 11pm (Game in Honolulu, HI)

I'm not going through this whole thing for this game. Throwing out their games against Utah, Memphis, and Alabama, Wichita State has won each game by an average of 81-59. That's 22 points. Against teams that I have heard of (official measurements, coming at you!), Loyola Marymount scores 60.8 points per game and gives up 73.8. That's only a deficit of 13 points, but none of those teams were even ranked, let alone as good as WSU. 

Pick Wichita State -19 (if you're teasing, throw this one in for some breathing room)

#12/21 Ohio State (-22.5) hosting Miami (OH), 6pm

I'm going to do the same thing as before. Ohio State against bad teams: average score is 87.4 - 56.1. Miami (OH)'s side is a little tougher because they've kept in to single digits against Northwestern and Dayton. They lost by 19 to Evansville and by 15 to Virginia Tech. 

Pick: I'd stay away, but OSU seems like a "crush bad teams and lose to good teams" type of team. So if you really have a gambling problem, I'd take the Buckeyes.

(Editor's note: Wow! Getting killed by UNC is not a great look when you are pushing to be a top-ten team.)

#16/13 Washington (-13.5) hosting Tulane, 11pm

Notable games for Washington: have beaten everyone they've played, including SDSU, Eastern Washington, and Oklahoma

Notable games for Tulane: lost 71-49 at home to Wake Forest, have beaten everyone else including Mississippi State

Beyond their big games listed above, these teams have beaten a lot of garbage. But Washington's "garbage" is a step above Tulane's garbage. Clearly, the Huskies are a better team, and having a home game at this distance is definitely an advantage. Then consider that the Huskies are 15th in the country in rebounding and the Green Wave are 119th. 

In a situation like this, the underdog is going to have to shoot the lights out. Jay Hook and Louis Dabney can, and the team combines for the 38th best shooting percentage in the country. That's why this spread is lower than the OSU/WSU spreads. But throw that upset you're considering out the window, because Tulane's stats are inflated from their pitiful schedule. 

Pick: Washington -13.5

#18/30 Miami (-1.5) against Providence, 9pm (Game in Brooklyn, NY)

Notable games for Miami: won 69-67 at Florida, won 70-61 at home against Illinois, coming off a 72-44 loss at home to Eastern Kentucky

Notable games for Providence: lost on the road 58-38 to Kentucky and 69-60 to Boston College, beat Florida State 80-54 and Notre Dame 75-74 (both neutral court), lost 77-67 at home to Brown but have beaten URI (68-60), Stony Brook (79-61), and UMass (85-65) since

I don't know about either of these teams, Miami looks like a decent team that will end up somewhere in the middle of the ACC, but they just got absolutely head-scratchingly killed at home against a bunch of nobodies. Providence also looks like a pretty decent team that might even contend for the Big East title. 

I love a game like this because the Eastern Kentucky game was clearly a fluke. Miami is underrated here, and they're playing away from home with a chip on their shoulder. Providence is a decent team, maybe, but they haven't played anybody of Miami's caliber (Kentucky doesn't count because they're too good). I love only having to give up a point and a half, but I'd consider the moneyline too depending on the price difference. 

Pick: Miami -1.5

#20/17 St. John's (-9.5) hosting Long Beach State, 7:30pm

I am really high on SJU this year. I think they're going to end up legitimately challenging Villanova for the Big East. On the other side, I'd hate to play for Long Beach State right now. They are in the midst of a six game road trip with games at Stephen F Austin, San Diego State, Texas, Saint John's, Syracuse, and Louisville. Yeeeesh. They have also played (and lost to) BYU, Xavier, UCLA, and Washington. To their credit, they did beat Xavier one time and Kansas State. I think St. John's wins this, at home, pretty easily.

Pick: SJU -9.5 (but if you're looking for another team for that teaser....)