Let's Look At The NHL Trading Block

As everyone in the world of hockey media turns their attention to the February 29th NHL trade deadline, loads of information will be flying in all directions. Trading blocks, team needs, injuries, and losing streaks will all lead to hundreds of blogs and columns about possible roster moves.

TSN's Frank Seravelli conveniently examined every team's current roster looking to find needs and surpluses for each NHL team. I'm going to classify everything into pools, and then we'll try to see how we can get Andrew MacDonald or RJ Umberger out of Philly before the end of the month.

(Spoiler alert: we won't, but let's take a look anyway.)

Pool A: Not Going To Make Any Significant Moves

Arizona Coyotes, Montreal Canadiens, New York Islanders, St. Louis Blues

Whether because they're pretty set for the future (Arizona) or they just need their current team to be healthy and click (New York and St. Louis) or they have the best goalie in the world but he's hurt (Montreal), Frank doesn't expect these four teams to make too much noise in the coming weeks.

That's a bit surprising, as the Blues were always thought to be a player in the Jonathan Drouin sweepstakes and the Islanders' Travis Hamonic requested a trade earlier this year.

Pool B: Selling Off Assets 

Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames, Columbus Blue Jackets, Edmonton Oilers, Philadelphia Flyers, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets

Just going off of the names Seravelli listed, here's the pool of players that are available to our potential buyers. I organized them based on HERO Charts (forwards here and defensemen here), so yes Mark Streit is most certainly a top-pairing defensemen and your favorite team should absolutely give up a first round pick for him.

Top Line Forwards: Scott Hartnell, Radim Vrbata, Andrew Ladd 

Depth Forwards: Tyler Ennis, Jamie McGinn, David Legwand, David Jones, Jiri Hudler, Teddy Purcell, PA Parenteau, Shawn Matthias, Alex Burrows 

Top Pairing Defensemen: Cody Franson, Mark Streit, Dan Hamhuis, Jacob Trouba 

Depth Defensemen: Kris Russell, Dennis Wideman, Fedor Tyutin, Justin Schultz, Eric Gryba, Evgeny Medvedev, Roman Polak

I won't lie, it'd be tough to sell a fan base on Vrbata, Franson, or Streit being the starting-caliber reinforcement necessary for a deep playoff run. But behind Hartnell, Ladd, and Hamhuis there isn't going to be a ton of talent available.

The first chip to fall is Ladd - Winnipeg wants to get as much as possible for him, and that will set the market for Vrbata and then Hartnell. Hartsy, to be honest, has a horrible fucking albatross contract and will probably be impossible to move.

Should the Ladd trade never happen, a Trouba trade probably would. That would set the market for the rest of the defensemen that are available.

So the ball's in Winnipeg's court for now, and then I'd expect Vancouver to sell their pair of assets shortly thereafter.

Pool B2: Haven't Realized They Have To Sell Off Assets Yet

Carolina Hurricanes

Hey 'Canes, you have two great potential trade assets in Eric Staal and Jeff Skinner, and you have a killer defensive core on the horizon. Ship Staal/Skinner out to some of the teams in the next category and bring back some young talent for the next ten years.

Pool C: Looking To Add Forwards

Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks, Florida Panthers, Minnesota Wild, Nashville Predators, New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, Pittsburgh Penguins

Here's who Frank expects to be in the Ladd discussion (and then, after that, the Vrbata and Hartnell discussions and so on down the line): Ducks, Hawks, Panthers, Preds. The idea of Ladd going to any of the first three would terrify me if I had to play against them in the playoffs. They're already three of the 6-8 best teams in the league, and they actually have the room to add a player like Ladd? Gosh, that must be an incredible feeling.

As for the Wild, Rangers, Senators, and Penguins, I get the sense that they're looking to make smaller, less-splashy moves to retool their current cores and maybe add some young depth.

The most interesting piece of Seravelli's post to me was the idea that Columbus might try to ship Hartnell to (their partner in the Ryan Johansen-Seth Jones deal) Nashville. The front office familiarity is there, Hartnell has played well for Nashville coach Peter Laviolette in the past, and anything Columbus could take back to alleviate their cap situation would be beneficial.

Pool C2: Haven't Committed To Buying Yet, But Will

New Jersey Devils

After they beat the Flyers tonight, the Devils will leapfrog the Islanders for the third Metro playoff spot. They don't have a ton of assets to work with, but according to Seravelli, GM Ray Shero would look to add some forward depth to replace some of the elderly players he currently has.

Pool D: Looking To Add Defensemen

Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings, San Jose Sharks, Tampa Bay Lightning, Washington Capitals

The teams that are in play for the Hamhuis/Trouba/Streit/Franson class of blueliners seem to be Boston, Dallas, Los Angeles, and Tampa. I can see a situation where Trouba goes to Boston, Hamhuis goes to LA, Franson goes to Dallas, and the Flyers are stuck with Mark Streit for another year.

As for the teams that are looking for less flashy defensive help, see above - there is a ton of blueline depth available at the deadline, and it's a good time to need a second- or third-pairing type of player. There's a ton of supply, and so teams like Washington and Detroit should be able to get even better.

Give Up, You're Dead, Sell At The Trade Deadline (Part II: West)

Yesterday, I examined which pending free agents would make the best trade deadline rentals from the Eastern Conference (link here). Today, let's look at the Western Conference, where I've determined that the Predators, Wild, Jets, Coyotes, Canucks, and Flames are all dead.

So, let's look to the West to see who can join Eric Staal, Loui Eriksson, Kris Versteeg, Sam Gagner, Jean-Michael Liles, Andrei Markov, and Evgeny Medvedev at the top of the trading block.

Western Conference

Nashville Predators

We'll start with a team that is, admittedly, maybe not dead. They currently have the top Wild Card spot in the conference, so obviously they aren't terrible.

But their first round series is either going to go through Chicago or Los Angeles, and this team is just flat out not good enough to beat either of those teams.

So, they don't need to tear it all down, but they could ship out some expiring deals to improve their future outlook. After all, the core of Neal-Fisher-Smith-Johansen-Forsberg-Weber-Josi-Ellis-Rinne is all under contract until at least 2018 (and most are on the books beyond that).

Nashville has forwards Paul Gaustad and Cody Bass expiring. Gaustad, to be honest, probably is not worth a whole lot. I guess it makes sense to try to get something for him as a veteran presence, but this seems to be the group for the Preds.

Minnesota Wild

The Wild are in an almost identical situation as the Predators. They aren't a bad team, as evidenced by the fact that they're currently just 2 points out of a playoff spot. But, like Nashville, they're either going to have to go through Chicago or LA and they just aren't good enough to win there.

Also like Nashville, they have a core in place for a long way into the future. They'd be best served by shipping off some pieces this year to make sure they aren't terrible when Zach Parise and Ryan Suter are old and overpaid.

And, finally, like Nashville, they don't really have a whole lot of ammo for the rental market. I think their best best is to offer up Niklas Backstrom (their backup goalie) and hope that another team's GM thinks they're stealing the actual Nicklas Backstrom from Washington.

Winnipeg Jets

Now that Dustin Byfuglien is locked up long-term, the obvious trade candidate here in Andrew Ladd. And oh boy is he a great rental candidate. At age 30, he's not too old. He's due around $2 million for the rest of this year, which is just a sliver of the salary cap. He has 13 goals and 17 assists this season, including his contributions on the power play.

Most importantly, though, he's won Stanley Cups in Carolina and Chicago.

If you're a team looking for a top-six winger for a deep playoff run, Ladd should be the guy at the top of your wish list.

Arizona Coyotes

It's an interesting time to be a Coyotes fan. They have a young core of Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and it seems like everyone else on the roster is either an expiring veteran or a young guy on a restricted contract.

Nobody that's currently above the age of 24 is on the books past 2018, and only Brad Richardson's $2.1 million is on the books for 2017-18.

The 'Yotes have had a lot of years of solid draft picks, and they're getting ready to make it to the NHL. As it stands, though, there are a bunch of guys that would qualify as rentals to expand that prospect pool. Mikkel Boedker is probably the best of the bunch, and I'm sure Arizona would love to flip him like they flipped Keith Yandle last year.

Captain Shane Doan will likely end his career after this season, and I get the sense he doesn't want to play in a different jersey. Defenseman (and Former Flyer) Nicklas Grossman should probably end his career after this season, though he wouldn't be worth much in a trade anyway.

Vancouver Canucks

I don't know what to say to Canucks fans. But, according to TSN's Bob McKenzie, Vancouver's GM is "adamant about seeing how the next week or two plays out."

You're dead! Shut up and be dead!

Radim Vrbata, Dan Hamhuis, and maybe even Matt Bartkowski could fetch picks or prospects before the deadline. Alex Burrows is expiring after next year, so they can ship him out as a rental a year from now.

As it stands, their two franchise cornerstones are aging and overpaid, and their best prospect was on the cover of the local newspaper as the reason Canada got sent home at the World Juniors.

Get a fucking grip, Vancouver. You're dead. Be dead, and be smart about it.

Calgary Flames

The Flames' under-25 group is a great one: Gaudreau, Hamilton, Brodie, Monahan, and Bennett should all fit nicely into their long-term plans. By the time those guys are all in the 25-28 range, they'll have another 2-4 years of prospects to play with them.

To add some extra juice to that prospect pool, the rental market over the next few years should be very friendly to the rebuilding Flames:

• 2016: Forwards David Jones (31) and Jiri Hudler (32) are both expiring $4 million contracts, as are 28-year old defensemen Kris Russell ($2.6 million) and Jakub Nakladal ($800k). None of those guys are going to light the world on fire, but they should be made available because any draft pick is better than losing them for nothing. 
• 2017: Forward Brandon Bollig (will be 30) will have his $1.25 million contract expiring, and he'll be joined by defensemen Dennis Wideman (33/$5.25 million), Ladislav Smid (31/$3.5 million), and Deryk Engelland (34/$2.9 million). 
• 2018: Just before Captain Johnny Gaudreau's age-25 season, the Flames will be able to put forwards Mikael Backlund, Matt Stajan, and Lance Bouma on the rental market. 

The Flames are in a good place. They have blueliners Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton, and TJ Brodie locked up until at least 2020, and their forward group should develop in a way that allows them to compete for at least a couple years with those three d-man in the lineup. 

Because none of their rental options are really impressive, the Flames may end up having to take back a bad contract to get the prospects or picks they want. But overall, the future is bright in Calgary. 

East Against West

The starting five of rentals available at the deadline in the East was:

Loui Eriksson - Eric Staal - Kris Versteeg/Sam Gagner

Jean-Michael Liles - Evgeny Medvedev

In the West, it seems to be:

Andrew Ladd - Paul Gaustad - Mikkel Boedker/Radim Vrbata

Dan Hamhuis - Matt Bartkowski/Kris Russell

Regardless of how you feel about the players involved, it's going to be a fun few weeks for Hurricanes, Jets, Canucks, and Flyers fans. 

Flyers Fans Should Be Rooting For The Winnipeg Jets

It feels like a daily occurrence when I find a tweet that causes me to think things about the Flyers. Today, this was that tweet:

Rumor Roundup: Trade dominoes will fall once Jets decide what to do with Byfuglien, Ladd: https://t.co/A7nL257TUc

— The Hockey News (@TheHockeyNews) February 3, 2016

It's not breaking any news, and it's not even really coming out with any hot takes. Basically, it's compiling all of the reports from various media members about trade rumors for the Winnipeg Jets' Dustin Byfuglien and Andrew Ladd.

But for Flyers fans, there is an extra bit of depth to those rumors.

Because if Winnipeg decides to put Byfuglien and/or Ladd on the trading block to extract some assets for their rebuild, they immediately become the best available players at their position on the market. If you're a team with cap room and you're looking for a rental for a deep playoff run, you won't find anyone better than the two Jets.

If - and, granted, it's a big if at this point - the Flyers decide to be sellers at the trade deadline, their three best "rentals" for sale are forward Michael Raffl and defensemen Mark Streit and Evgeny Medvedev. Raffl, as I mentioned earlier today, is still a question mark. I've talked about Medvedev specifically in the past if you're interested. And Streit has long been our prized trade chip, either for this February or next year.

Raffl and Medvedev, if they aren't moved or re-signed this year, can walk away after the season for nothing. Obviously, Ron Hextall would like to avoid that and either lock them up long-term or sell them off for picks and prospects. Streit's in the same boat next year, but he's talented enough that someone might be willing to take him on right now.

There is going to be a general manager in the league who is desperate for a puck-moving defenseman. There will probably be more than one. But the value of  Streit/Medvedev decreases immensely if Byfuglien is available, because Big Buff is younger and better than either of the current Flyers.

Ladd is two years older than Raffl, but you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone outside of a loony bin (or a Delaware County pizza shop) who doesn't think Ladd's the superior player. If he's on the market, Raffl becomes a less desirable target.

So, Flyers fans, we really should be rooting for Winnipeg to get hot and look like they're going to contend for a playoff spot this year. It's not going to be easy, because they're currently in last place in the Central Divison with a seven-point gap to get into second-to-last place. They're currently 9 points out of the second Wild Card spot, which is not an ideal place to be.

But, to end on a positive note, the teams standing in the Jets' way right now are the Canucks, Coyotes, Wild, Predators, and Avalanche. And holy shit, I just realized those five teams essentially are the plot of The Revenant. But two of the six are going to be in the playoffs, and Winnipeg has the talent in their top six and top four to be competitive.

Micah at HockeyViz.com projects the Jets to have a 10% chance to make the playoffs. The overwhelming favorites for those two Wild Card spots are the Preds and Wild, with the Avs and Yotes projecting slightly higher than the Jets.

It's definitely far from a lock, but if the Jets have a good month and look like they can make noise, that's going to be a very good thing for the front office in Philadelphia.