Give Up, You're Dead, Sell At The Trade Deadline (Part II: West)

Yesterday, I examined which pending free agents would make the best trade deadline rentals from the Eastern Conference (link here). Today, let's look at the Western Conference, where I've determined that the Predators, Wild, Jets, Coyotes, Canucks, and Flames are all dead.

So, let's look to the West to see who can join Eric Staal, Loui Eriksson, Kris Versteeg, Sam Gagner, Jean-Michael Liles, Andrei Markov, and Evgeny Medvedev at the top of the trading block.

Western Conference

Nashville Predators

We'll start with a team that is, admittedly, maybe not dead. They currently have the top Wild Card spot in the conference, so obviously they aren't terrible.

But their first round series is either going to go through Chicago or Los Angeles, and this team is just flat out not good enough to beat either of those teams.

So, they don't need to tear it all down, but they could ship out some expiring deals to improve their future outlook. After all, the core of Neal-Fisher-Smith-Johansen-Forsberg-Weber-Josi-Ellis-Rinne is all under contract until at least 2018 (and most are on the books beyond that).

Nashville has forwards Paul Gaustad and Cody Bass expiring. Gaustad, to be honest, probably is not worth a whole lot. I guess it makes sense to try to get something for him as a veteran presence, but this seems to be the group for the Preds.

Minnesota Wild

The Wild are in an almost identical situation as the Predators. They aren't a bad team, as evidenced by the fact that they're currently just 2 points out of a playoff spot. But, like Nashville, they're either going to have to go through Chicago or LA and they just aren't good enough to win there.

Also like Nashville, they have a core in place for a long way into the future. They'd be best served by shipping off some pieces this year to make sure they aren't terrible when Zach Parise and Ryan Suter are old and overpaid.

And, finally, like Nashville, they don't really have a whole lot of ammo for the rental market. I think their best best is to offer up Niklas Backstrom (their backup goalie) and hope that another team's GM thinks they're stealing the actual Nicklas Backstrom from Washington.

Winnipeg Jets

Now that Dustin Byfuglien is locked up long-term, the obvious trade candidate here in Andrew Ladd. And oh boy is he a great rental candidate. At age 30, he's not too old. He's due around $2 million for the rest of this year, which is just a sliver of the salary cap. He has 13 goals and 17 assists this season, including his contributions on the power play.

Most importantly, though, he's won Stanley Cups in Carolina and Chicago.

If you're a team looking for a top-six winger for a deep playoff run, Ladd should be the guy at the top of your wish list.

Arizona Coyotes

It's an interesting time to be a Coyotes fan. They have a young core of Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and it seems like everyone else on the roster is either an expiring veteran or a young guy on a restricted contract.

Nobody that's currently above the age of 24 is on the books past 2018, and only Brad Richardson's $2.1 million is on the books for 2017-18.

The 'Yotes have had a lot of years of solid draft picks, and they're getting ready to make it to the NHL. As it stands, though, there are a bunch of guys that would qualify as rentals to expand that prospect pool. Mikkel Boedker is probably the best of the bunch, and I'm sure Arizona would love to flip him like they flipped Keith Yandle last year.

Captain Shane Doan will likely end his career after this season, and I get the sense he doesn't want to play in a different jersey. Defenseman (and Former Flyer) Nicklas Grossman should probably end his career after this season, though he wouldn't be worth much in a trade anyway.

Vancouver Canucks

I don't know what to say to Canucks fans. But, according to TSN's Bob McKenzie, Vancouver's GM is "adamant about seeing how the next week or two plays out."

You're dead! Shut up and be dead!

Radim Vrbata, Dan Hamhuis, and maybe even Matt Bartkowski could fetch picks or prospects before the deadline. Alex Burrows is expiring after next year, so they can ship him out as a rental a year from now.

As it stands, their two franchise cornerstones are aging and overpaid, and their best prospect was on the cover of the local newspaper as the reason Canada got sent home at the World Juniors.

Get a fucking grip, Vancouver. You're dead. Be dead, and be smart about it.

Calgary Flames

The Flames' under-25 group is a great one: Gaudreau, Hamilton, Brodie, Monahan, and Bennett should all fit nicely into their long-term plans. By the time those guys are all in the 25-28 range, they'll have another 2-4 years of prospects to play with them.

To add some extra juice to that prospect pool, the rental market over the next few years should be very friendly to the rebuilding Flames:

• 2016: Forwards David Jones (31) and Jiri Hudler (32) are both expiring $4 million contracts, as are 28-year old defensemen Kris Russell ($2.6 million) and Jakub Nakladal ($800k). None of those guys are going to light the world on fire, but they should be made available because any draft pick is better than losing them for nothing. 
• 2017: Forward Brandon Bollig (will be 30) will have his $1.25 million contract expiring, and he'll be joined by defensemen Dennis Wideman (33/$5.25 million), Ladislav Smid (31/$3.5 million), and Deryk Engelland (34/$2.9 million). 
• 2018: Just before Captain Johnny Gaudreau's age-25 season, the Flames will be able to put forwards Mikael Backlund, Matt Stajan, and Lance Bouma on the rental market. 

The Flames are in a good place. They have blueliners Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton, and TJ Brodie locked up until at least 2020, and their forward group should develop in a way that allows them to compete for at least a couple years with those three d-man in the lineup. 

Because none of their rental options are really impressive, the Flames may end up having to take back a bad contract to get the prospects or picks they want. But overall, the future is bright in Calgary. 

East Against West

The starting five of rentals available at the deadline in the East was:

Loui Eriksson - Eric Staal - Kris Versteeg/Sam Gagner

Jean-Michael Liles - Evgeny Medvedev

In the West, it seems to be:

Andrew Ladd - Paul Gaustad - Mikkel Boedker/Radim Vrbata

Dan Hamhuis - Matt Bartkowski/Kris Russell

Regardless of how you feel about the players involved, it's going to be a fun few weeks for Hurricanes, Jets, Canucks, and Flyers fans. 

Give Up, You're Dead, Sell At The Trade Deadline (Part I: East)

At this stage in the NHL season, there are a handful of teams that are very clearly bottoming out for draft picks. They know they aren't competing this year, but they have a long-term plan based on the draft and development.

There are also a number of teams that look like surefire Stanley Cup contenders, who will likely be looking to add a piece to push them over the top. As the February 29 trade deadline nears, teams will have to decide whether they are buying, selling, or standing pat.

Doing nothing is the dumbest fucking move of all time. You don't benefit your chances for this season, you don't benefit your chances in the future, and you don't get the chance to take advantage of a desperate GM.

You either have to go all-in and buy, or go all-in and sell.

A lot of teams this season don't seem to realize they're dead. The Bruins, Canadiens, Devils, Hurricanes, Blue Jackets, Flyers, Predators, Wild, Jets, Coyotes, Canucks, and Flames need to kill the dream of competing this year and sell off any assets they have that might be attractive to a team in the hunt.

(Note: I excluded the Sabres, Maple Leafs, and Oilers because they're all solidly in tank mode and I don't think any of their fans are confused about them being dead.)

(Another note: as usual, every number/fact/figure in this post comes from General Fanager dot com, which is a good website.)

Eastern Conference

Boston Bruins

They have expiring contracts in Loui Eriksson, Max Talbot, Chris Kelly, and Kevan Miller. Eriksson, undoubtedly, is the best trade bait. But Talbot or Kelly could fill a bottom-six hole on a team looking for a veteran presence, though the Bruins would likely have to retain some salary.

As for Miller, here's a text I got from Dag last night during Boston's 9-2 loss at home to the Kings: "Kevan Miller has let up three (3) goals tonight". I'm a pretty big analytics guy, and I am of the belief that things like that are bad.

Montreal Canadiens

After this train wreck of a season, they have two more years of Carey Price. Beyond that, the plan seems to be something along the lines of ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You can win with an older goalie. Price, as good as he is, means the Habs are going to compete for two years (when he'll be 30). They should look to add some pieces around their core of Subban (now 26), Pacioretty (27), Gallagher (23), Galchenyuk (21), and Petry (28).

That leaves Tomas Plekanec (2 years and change, around $14 million left) and Andrei Markov (1 year and change, around $7 million left) as "players they'd like to dump but have more than one year left."

As for Montreal's available expiring contracts of older players, it's basically just Dale Weise, who is a useful piece but is probably due a raise this summer.

New Jersey Devils

It seems like the Devils' entire forward roster is expiring at the end of this season. Tuomo Ruutu, Lee Stempniak, Stephen Gionta, Jordin Tootoo, Tyler Kennedy, and Bobby Farnham are all probably too old to fit into the team's future plans. Are any of them worth anything? Probably not.

Patrik Elias is also expiring and may count as a solid veteran presence, but he's on the IR right now and he's almost 40. Maybe he fetches a mid-round pick?

Carolina Hurricanes

Should they rebuild or just retool? They need to answer that question and then either extend Eric Staal or trade him at the deadline and retain half his salary (he expires this summer).

Regardless of what happens with Staal, they have a couple other decent trade chips. Kris Versteeg is 29, he's cheap, and he has playoff experience. Nathan Gerbe and Riley Nash may also find a home with a contender before their contracts expire this summer, though they're worth considerably less than Versteeg.

John-Michael Liles is expiring, and he's a quality defensive defenseman if you know of any teams looking for someone like that.

Carolina has some decisions to make.

Carolina Blue Jackets

Overall, the majority of Columbus' roster is some combination of young, locked up long-term, and not good enough to trade. The big names - Hartnell, Foligno, Saad, Dubinsky, Atkinson, Johnson - all have 2 years left (most have more). They have a bunch of RFA's that are either going to keep making entry-level money or are due a big raise (looking at you, Seth Jones).

Really, the only aging/expiring player is winger Rene Bourque, who is 33 and has a $3.3 million AAV on his contract, plus a No Trade Clause.

Columbus is kind of fucked, no?

Philadelphia Flyers

And here's where it gets interesting. I wanted to take a look at the Flyers roster the same way I did with all these other teams. I'm going to factor out my fanhood, pretend I'm just a casual hockey fan, and try to judge Philly like I just judged everyone else.

Let's go bullets style:

• Sam Gagner is expiring after this year and will be Unrestricted - he should fetch something at the deadline, though he's playing well enough that I could also see Hextall re-signing him. It's similar to the Eric Staal situation in Carolina. Either extend him or trade him, but don't lose him for nothing. 
• Brayden Schenn is an RFA this summer, which poses an interesting situation for the front office: we can trade him before the deadline, we can re-sign him to a long-term deal before the season ends, we can re-sign him during the offseason, or we can let someone give him an offer sheet this year and he's fetch 1st and 3rd round picks for us. The issue with even including Brayden in this post is he's not really a deadline rental like everyone else I've mentioned. Moving on!
• Michael Raffl, like Gagner, will be Unrestricted after this year. He's cheap, he's a solid possession forward, and he could bring in a decent haul for a rental if he's not in the long-term plans. But that's a huge if, and it seems like he is, in fact, part of those plans. 
• Michael Raffl part two - what if we trade him for picks and then re-sign him this summer? That would be Peak Hextall. 
• Ryan White is cheap and expiring, but I doubt he's worth much (or anything).
• On defense, the big expiring older guy is Evgeny Medvedev, who's a capable puck mover and can generate offense from the point. At least as far as the Eastern half of the league goes, I don't see anyone on the trading block who can do what he does, and especially not someone who's expiring after this season with no long-term commitment. 

I'm going to look into the same situations out West tomorrow morning, but the cream of the crop on the trading block in the East seems to be Versteeg, Eriksson, and Staal (maybe) up front and Medvedev, Liles, and Markov on the blueline. I think each of those guys could contribute to a Cup-caliber team, and I'm excited to find out how they compare to the guys available in the other half of the league. 

Why The Yankees Will Continue Their World Series Drought

Despite their recent additions, the Yankees will not win the World Series.