Leafs Fans Have Some Interesting Trade Deadline Predictions

Let’s play a game. Try and predict a trade that will occur in the next 6 days. The teams and all the pieces involved. Use #PSGPredict.

— Platinum Seat Ghosts (@3rdPeriodSuits) February 23, 2016

I think this Platinum Seat Ghosts is a Toronto Maple Leafs fan, and his name is not in any way a Shayne Gostisbehere reference. That's a little weird because the word "Ghost" in any sort of context should be referencing the Flyers' rookie blueliner. But, for whatever reason, he's using the word to mean something other than what we care about. Fine, live your own life I guess.

The responses to his tweet this morning are an interesting cross-section of Hockey Twitter. Obviously, the vast majority of people who follow PSG (and would be responding to this tweet) are crazy hockey fans. They come from different cities and root for different teams, but all of Hockey Twitter shares a love for crazy, senseless, boiling hot takes.

@3rdPeriodSuits #PSGPredict Kevin Shattenkirk will become a Leaf

— Michael Do Couto (@TheRealDoCouto) February 23, 2016

Twitter in a nutshell. No reasoning behind it, no logical way for it to happen, nothing the Leafs can offer St. Louis to make it worth their time. But let's bring the best potential defenseman on the market  (who is actually probably off the market at this point) to my home team and fucking make a run!

God I'm going to hate the Leafs so much in two years when they're good.

@3rdPeriodSuits Parenteau for bickell, scuderi, dano, 1st 2016, 2nd 2017. Then Chi has cap space for ladd or staal #PSGPredict

— Dave bice (@davebice_leafs) February 23, 2016

I guess the logic behind this kind of makes sense. Chicago could add Parenteau to their middle six, then add Ladd/Staal to their top line, and be a prohibitive favorite to win the Stanley Cup this year.

But come the fuck on, Leafs fans, they aren't going to give up their best prospect and two solid picks for a crappy winger on a one year contract. This trade would also leave the Hawks without anything left to trade to actually acquire Ladd or Staal.

@3rdPeriodSuits Parenteau to NYI for the 2016 2nd #PSGPredict

— Max Homie (@50_MissionCap) February 23, 2016

This is a much more reasonable return for Parenteau. Good job, Max.

@3rdPeriodSuits PA Parenteau to New Jersey for Mackenzie Blackwood. #PSGPredict

— Tyrannosaurus Ricks (@RickC1983) February 23, 2016

God damnit! Does this person think that New Jersey would send their goalie of the future back to Toronto - who is now managed by the man who ditched NJ - for a rental in a year where they have no realistic shot of making any noise in the playoffs?

I mean, yeah, obviously it'd be nice to turn an aging player on an expiring deal into a goalie prospect to replace the hot mess they currently have in Toronto, but this guy might as well have suggested a Parenteau for Lundqvist swap.

@3rdperiodsuits JvR to the Hawks for Bickell, Dano, and a 1st. #PSGPredict

— Damon (@Baseball_Damon) February 23, 2016

The trend I'm seeing out of Maple Leafs Twitter is they're supremely overvaluing P.A. Parenteau. He's 32. He's never scored more than 20 goals in a season. He's been declining since 2011.

JVR is a much more interesting candidate. He's just 26, he's under contract until 2018, and he'd be a 30 goal/60 point guy if he could stay healthy. I just don't think he's a good fit for the Hawks because his cap hit is upwards of $4 million. He's probably more valuable to the Leafs if they keep him for their rebuild, to be honest.

The one big intangible with JVR is the fact that he's a #FormerFlyer. That's something that can't be measured on the ice during the actual game, but it carries a lot of weight with the Hockey Gods, and it means he's probably going to eventually win a Cup.

@3rdPeriodSuits Oilers fail to get anything resembling decent value for their rental players after waiting until last minute #PSGPredict

— Lawrence Alexander (@LD10) February 23, 2016

Yes please, I would like to see this happen.

#PSGPredict Kadri to St.Louis in return for Parayko, 1st round pick 2016 and 3rd round pick 2017

— David Papais (@DPapais) February 23, 2016

Elliotte Friedman mentioned the idea of Kadri to St. Louis yesterday in his Reddit AMA. Kadri is 25, and a restricted free agent this summer. He figures to get an offer sheet that's in the range of compensation which awards a 1st and 3rd round pick. So, at a minimum, he should net a first and a third at the deadline.

Throwing Parayko into the mix is interesting - he was drafted in the third round and has developed almost as well as a third-round defenseman can (see #53 in Philadelphia). I'd guess there's no chance that the Blues give up both picks plus Parayko - but what if the offer goes to Parayko and the 3rd rounder?

Kadri for Fabbri and a 2nd #PSGPredict

— Chief (@_McGill_76) February 23, 2016

 This is along the same lines, and if St. Louis wants to really challenge Chicago this year, I think they should consider upgrading Fabbri. It'll hurt long term when Fabbri is a stud on a cheap deal in Toronto, but there's no doubt Kadri could slide nicely into their top six.

The Leafs don't make another trade #PSGPredict

— Jesse Turner (@Jessturr) February 23, 2016

This is an option that most Leafs fans are not considering.

@3rdPeriodSuits Ladd to NYR for Mcilrath, Buchnevich and 2016 1st. #PSGPredict

— David Maurstad (@davedrivesbus) February 23, 2016

I will bet you one million dollars that David is a Rangers fan.

(Checks his timeline)

Well consider my mind blown, because it looks like he's a Jets fan. What? How? Why would he be content with a late first round pick, a thug defenseman, and a Russian prospect whose KHL team has expressed desires to extend his contract and keep him there? Ladd is the best rental chip available on the market, and they'd be getting like a 50% chance at nothing for him.

Reminder: hockey fans everywhere are the worst. I love reading through the CrossingBroad comment section for all of the hot takes, but sometimes I question if people are actually as dumb as they seem online.

This blog alleviated that a bit for me, because Leafs fans might even be dumber than Flyers fans.

-

(Update: PSG tweeted a link to this blog, so this will likely be our most-viewed post in months - please let me know how you initially found it, if you're reading this. I feel like I should just clarify one point:

This wasn't a Leafs fan hit piece, just more of an observation that every fan base has the "Trade Giroux" or "Trade Subban" or "PA Parenteau Is Worth A First And Dano" or "Crosby Is A Good Captain" group. Not everyone can be the type of fan that focuses on possession and exit/entry metrics and things that we generally associate with "smart" hockey fans. 

The question in the original tweet was posed from a Leafs blog, and obviously most of the responses were Leafs-centric. It was nice to see that it's not just Flyers fans that may not have realistic hopes or opinions on the internet - but it's also not just Leafs fans, either. That's the takeaway, I guess. We're all kind of dumb. 

But I still hate you, though, Leafs fans. And I hope Stamkos signs with Buffalo this summer.)

Let's Look At The NHL Trading Block

As everyone in the world of hockey media turns their attention to the February 29th NHL trade deadline, loads of information will be flying in all directions. Trading blocks, team needs, injuries, and losing streaks will all lead to hundreds of blogs and columns about possible roster moves.

TSN's Frank Seravelli conveniently examined every team's current roster looking to find needs and surpluses for each NHL team. I'm going to classify everything into pools, and then we'll try to see how we can get Andrew MacDonald or RJ Umberger out of Philly before the end of the month.

(Spoiler alert: we won't, but let's take a look anyway.)

Pool A: Not Going To Make Any Significant Moves

Arizona Coyotes, Montreal Canadiens, New York Islanders, St. Louis Blues

Whether because they're pretty set for the future (Arizona) or they just need their current team to be healthy and click (New York and St. Louis) or they have the best goalie in the world but he's hurt (Montreal), Frank doesn't expect these four teams to make too much noise in the coming weeks.

That's a bit surprising, as the Blues were always thought to be a player in the Jonathan Drouin sweepstakes and the Islanders' Travis Hamonic requested a trade earlier this year.

Pool B: Selling Off Assets 

Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames, Columbus Blue Jackets, Edmonton Oilers, Philadelphia Flyers, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets

Just going off of the names Seravelli listed, here's the pool of players that are available to our potential buyers. I organized them based on HERO Charts (forwards here and defensemen here), so yes Mark Streit is most certainly a top-pairing defensemen and your favorite team should absolutely give up a first round pick for him.

Top Line Forwards: Scott Hartnell, Radim Vrbata, Andrew Ladd 

Depth Forwards: Tyler Ennis, Jamie McGinn, David Legwand, David Jones, Jiri Hudler, Teddy Purcell, PA Parenteau, Shawn Matthias, Alex Burrows 

Top Pairing Defensemen: Cody Franson, Mark Streit, Dan Hamhuis, Jacob Trouba 

Depth Defensemen: Kris Russell, Dennis Wideman, Fedor Tyutin, Justin Schultz, Eric Gryba, Evgeny Medvedev, Roman Polak

I won't lie, it'd be tough to sell a fan base on Vrbata, Franson, or Streit being the starting-caliber reinforcement necessary for a deep playoff run. But behind Hartnell, Ladd, and Hamhuis there isn't going to be a ton of talent available.

The first chip to fall is Ladd - Winnipeg wants to get as much as possible for him, and that will set the market for Vrbata and then Hartnell. Hartsy, to be honest, has a horrible fucking albatross contract and will probably be impossible to move.

Should the Ladd trade never happen, a Trouba trade probably would. That would set the market for the rest of the defensemen that are available.

So the ball's in Winnipeg's court for now, and then I'd expect Vancouver to sell their pair of assets shortly thereafter.

Pool B2: Haven't Realized They Have To Sell Off Assets Yet

Carolina Hurricanes

Hey 'Canes, you have two great potential trade assets in Eric Staal and Jeff Skinner, and you have a killer defensive core on the horizon. Ship Staal/Skinner out to some of the teams in the next category and bring back some young talent for the next ten years.

Pool C: Looking To Add Forwards

Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks, Florida Panthers, Minnesota Wild, Nashville Predators, New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, Pittsburgh Penguins

Here's who Frank expects to be in the Ladd discussion (and then, after that, the Vrbata and Hartnell discussions and so on down the line): Ducks, Hawks, Panthers, Preds. The idea of Ladd going to any of the first three would terrify me if I had to play against them in the playoffs. They're already three of the 6-8 best teams in the league, and they actually have the room to add a player like Ladd? Gosh, that must be an incredible feeling.

As for the Wild, Rangers, Senators, and Penguins, I get the sense that they're looking to make smaller, less-splashy moves to retool their current cores and maybe add some young depth.

The most interesting piece of Seravelli's post to me was the idea that Columbus might try to ship Hartnell to (their partner in the Ryan Johansen-Seth Jones deal) Nashville. The front office familiarity is there, Hartnell has played well for Nashville coach Peter Laviolette in the past, and anything Columbus could take back to alleviate their cap situation would be beneficial.

Pool C2: Haven't Committed To Buying Yet, But Will

New Jersey Devils

After they beat the Flyers tonight, the Devils will leapfrog the Islanders for the third Metro playoff spot. They don't have a ton of assets to work with, but according to Seravelli, GM Ray Shero would look to add some forward depth to replace some of the elderly players he currently has.

Pool D: Looking To Add Defensemen

Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings, San Jose Sharks, Tampa Bay Lightning, Washington Capitals

The teams that are in play for the Hamhuis/Trouba/Streit/Franson class of blueliners seem to be Boston, Dallas, Los Angeles, and Tampa. I can see a situation where Trouba goes to Boston, Hamhuis goes to LA, Franson goes to Dallas, and the Flyers are stuck with Mark Streit for another year.

As for the teams that are looking for less flashy defensive help, see above - there is a ton of blueline depth available at the deadline, and it's a good time to need a second- or third-pairing type of player. There's a ton of supply, and so teams like Washington and Detroit should be able to get even better.