My Official Flyers Trade Deadline Wish List

Today is the last work day before the NHL Trade Deadline Day. There are a lot of question marks for the Flyers going into this weekend, and there are a few comparable trades we can look at to gauge the market. To recap:

Blackhawks receive: F Andrew Ladd, two warm bodies to stash in the minors

Jets receive: F Marko Dano, 2016 1st round pick, conditional 2018 3rd round pick

That was the big trade for yesterday in the forward rental market. Guys like Loui Eriksson, Radim Vrbata, and Sam Gagner will fetch less of a return. But with Ladd's trade setting the bar so high, any high-level forward rental should fetch a decent return in terms of picks and prospects.

 Canucks receive: D Philip Larsen

Oilers receive:  2017 5th round pick

 This is about as meaningless a trade as anyone can possibly make. Larsen doesn't even have a HERO chart on HockeyViz (editor's note: because he plays in the KHL), and a 5th round pick in next year's draft is about as worthless as draft picks come. To put on my analyst hat, I imagine this is just Vancouver acquiring a warm body to fill Dan Hamhuis' skates when the trade him (editor's note: nope, probably just taking a flier on a Euro prospect).

Capitals receive: D Mike Weber

 Sabres receive: 2017 3rd round pick

This is a step up from the Larsen trade, but it's definitely not a big step. A third rounder, while it may turn into Shayne Gostisbehere, will more likely turn into nothing. Mike Weber is pretty much nothing, he gets paid $2 million with a cap hit of $1.6 million, and his contract expires this summer:
:

And that's it for the past few days. Obviously, you would expect the activity level to skyrocket now that Ladd has found a new home. This is the time of the year where Bob McKenzie and Darren Dreger earn their keep (and their Twitter followers). 

We have comparables for cheap bottom-pairing defensemen and for top-six wingers, so let's take a look at what we can expect for some names that are on the block in Philly. 

Forward Sam Gagner

Gagner is the closest the Flyers can come to Andrew Ladd in the forward rental market. He's clearly not as talented or as experienced, but - as we've seen the past week or so - he has the skill to contribute as a top-nine winger. 

It would be extremely unrealistic to expect a return like Winnipeg's. If I were a Maple Leafs fan, maybe I'd suggest we trade Gagner to the Devils for prospect Pavel Zacha and a first round pick. 

But since I'm not an idiot, I'd expect less than half of Ladd's return if Hextall shipped Gagner out. He's not proven in the playoffs, he's a significantly smaller player, and the playoffs tend to value size over hands. 

That potential return, coupled with the recent emergence of the Schenn-Gagner duo, makes me question if we should trade Gagner at all. Yes, it'd be nice to net another second- or third-round pick. But he's contributing as a top six forward now, and he's going to provide a lot of lineup flexibility when Claude Giroux returns from his concussion. 

Verdict: Don't trade him. Let's ride out the year, make a push for the Wild Card, and see if Sammer (new nickname) will take a hometown discount to play with his boy Brayden for a few more years. 

Defenseman Radko Gudas

My biggest point with Gudas is the NHL's RFA compensation rules - if someone tries to sign him away from us this summer, they have to send a draft pick back:

• $1.2 - 1.8 million = 3rd round pick
• $1.8 - 3.6 million = 2nd round pick
• $3.6 - 5.5 million = 1st and 3rd round picks
• $5.5 - 7.3 million = 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks

Gudas probably would net at least a third rounder, but I wouldn't be shocked if he squeezed a contract in the second rounder range. So, at a minimum, we're looking to get more than a second round pick for him. 

People seemed shocked that he was apparently almost traded for a pair of second round picks. He's a cheap, physical, valuable blueliner. He obviously needs some work around the edges (okay, fine, a lot of work around the edges), but he was a legitimate top pairing defenseman when he played with Michael Del Zotto. 

His three-year HERO chart paints the picture of a defenseman who is plays high-event hockey and generates a lot of primary assists. Toss in the fact that he's a restricted free agent and his value is probably even higher than those two seconds. 

Verdict: Don't trade him. As my Twitter friend Bill Matz always says, you need a thumper. Gudas is cheap, mean, and he complements our top d-man nicely. Let's look for a 2-3 year deal in the $2-3 million range this summer. 

Defenseman Evgeny Medvedev

Meddy doesn't have a HERO chart because he's a rookie and he's use so sparingly (sigh). So I traveled to Corsica  to look at some numbers (all numbers at 5v5 to factor out Ghost's powerplay numbers): 

• Of Flyers defensemen sans Andrew MacDonald, Medvedev has the highest Corsi For Percentage (52.68%) and the second-highest Fenwick For Percentage (51.79%) 
• Of those same regular Flyers defensemen, Medvedev's Expected Goals For Per 60 is the highest (2.82), even ahead of Shayne Gostisbehere (2.53)
• To demonstrate that he's not just a high-event defenseman, I will also add that Medvedev's Expected Goals For Percentage (50.84%) leads all regular Flyers defenseman. To reiterate: Meddy's play would lead you to believe the Flyers should outscore opponents when he's on the ice, even though the team has a goal differential of -15 for the year. 
• Medvedev's Actual Goals For Percentage (55.32%) is second on the team behind Gostisbehere (59.57%)
• In his own zone, Meddy's  Fenwick Against Per 60 (41.70) is smack in the middle of the Flyers blueliners

Let me make my own HERO chart:

• Usage: criminally underused, both in terms of healthy scratches and ice time
• Point generation: about as good as it gets on the Flyers
• Possession: about as good as it gets on the Flyers
• Suppression: decidedly not as good as his generation

Verdict: Trade him. It's really easy to see that his defensive zone issues aren't going to work for coach Dave Hakstol, and at 33 he's old enough to not really develop his game any further. I think the list of NHL teams who could use an offensively-gifted blueliner is just about all of them, and I'd think the return for Weber means Medvedev is worth at least a second round pick. 

The other big piece of  Medvedev trade: the Flyers have about $4.8 million in cap space, and Medvedev's $3 million would bump that number up to $7.8 million. Obviously, we don't want to take on any long-term money. But if a team in the hunt needed to dump an expiring contract to bring on Medvedev, Ron Hextall is in a position to take some salary back to sweeten the pot. 

Flyers Fans Should Be Rooting For The Winnipeg Jets

It feels like a daily occurrence when I find a tweet that causes me to think things about the Flyers. Today, this was that tweet:

Rumor Roundup: Trade dominoes will fall once Jets decide what to do with Byfuglien, Ladd: https://t.co/A7nL257TUc

— The Hockey News (@TheHockeyNews) February 3, 2016

It's not breaking any news, and it's not even really coming out with any hot takes. Basically, it's compiling all of the reports from various media members about trade rumors for the Winnipeg Jets' Dustin Byfuglien and Andrew Ladd.

But for Flyers fans, there is an extra bit of depth to those rumors.

Because if Winnipeg decides to put Byfuglien and/or Ladd on the trading block to extract some assets for their rebuild, they immediately become the best available players at their position on the market. If you're a team with cap room and you're looking for a rental for a deep playoff run, you won't find anyone better than the two Jets.

If - and, granted, it's a big if at this point - the Flyers decide to be sellers at the trade deadline, their three best "rentals" for sale are forward Michael Raffl and defensemen Mark Streit and Evgeny Medvedev. Raffl, as I mentioned earlier today, is still a question mark. I've talked about Medvedev specifically in the past if you're interested. And Streit has long been our prized trade chip, either for this February or next year.

Raffl and Medvedev, if they aren't moved or re-signed this year, can walk away after the season for nothing. Obviously, Ron Hextall would like to avoid that and either lock them up long-term or sell them off for picks and prospects. Streit's in the same boat next year, but he's talented enough that someone might be willing to take him on right now.

There is going to be a general manager in the league who is desperate for a puck-moving defenseman. There will probably be more than one. But the value of  Streit/Medvedev decreases immensely if Byfuglien is available, because Big Buff is younger and better than either of the current Flyers.

Ladd is two years older than Raffl, but you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone outside of a loony bin (or a Delaware County pizza shop) who doesn't think Ladd's the superior player. If he's on the market, Raffl becomes a less desirable target.

So, Flyers fans, we really should be rooting for Winnipeg to get hot and look like they're going to contend for a playoff spot this year. It's not going to be easy, because they're currently in last place in the Central Divison with a seven-point gap to get into second-to-last place. They're currently 9 points out of the second Wild Card spot, which is not an ideal place to be.

But, to end on a positive note, the teams standing in the Jets' way right now are the Canucks, Coyotes, Wild, Predators, and Avalanche. And holy shit, I just realized those five teams essentially are the plot of The Revenant. But two of the six are going to be in the playoffs, and Winnipeg has the talent in their top six and top four to be competitive.

Micah at HockeyViz.com projects the Jets to have a 10% chance to make the playoffs. The overwhelming favorites for those two Wild Card spots are the Preds and Wild, with the Avs and Yotes projecting slightly higher than the Jets.

It's definitely far from a lock, but if the Jets have a good month and look like they can make noise, that's going to be a very good thing for the front office in Philadelphia.

Let's Find Evgeny Medvedev A New Home, Part 2

Last night's performance was a rough one for the Flyers. Everyone stinks except Gostisbehere and there is no hope in the world and so on. It was, however, a decent night for Evgeny Medvedev; he contributed pretty significantly on offensive and defense:

What a pass from Medvedev to Read here on the PP. #TastyKakes pic.twitter.com/Lm3xkXR4qe

— Jordie (@BarstoolJordie) January 20, 2016

Medvedev for Medvedevezina https://t.co/Py10uGW6jr

— Jordie (@BarstoolJordie) January 20, 2016

It's time to revisit the idea of trading Evgeny Medvedev before this season's deadline. I initially wrote about this nearly a month ago as a remedy for the crowded blueline. Obviously, with Luke Schenn now playing for the Kings, the logjam is no longer an issue. But allow me to overreact to one bad game:

The Flyers aren't going to do anything this year. I've been optimistic basically all year, and I still think they are a solid, middle-of-the-pack team in the East. So I have a few bullets to go through:

• A middle-of-the-pack team does not need a 33 year old defenseman for the future
• Medvedev's 1-year contract means he's going to need more money (and more years) this summer
• Del Zotto and Gostisbehere will definitely be back next season
• Schultz, Gudas, and Manning will likely be back as well
• Mark Streit is a question mark, but I can't imagine him netting enough assets to justify moving him
• That's six defensemen returning to clog up the pipeline for Ivan Provorov, and we don't need more bodies in his way

So, ipso facto, we should trade Medvedev at the deadline to obtain an asset or two for the future. I get the sense that this was Hexy's plan all along; if Medvedev impressed, he's worth a moderate hall at the deadline. If he was a bust, then he'd be gone after one year anyway. 

On a much more positive note, trading Meddy to a legitimate contender would also allow him to really experience playing in the NHL. We all know the playoffs are a different animal altogether and the chance to really fight for a Stanley Cup would be a great way to end his rookie season in North America. 

As blasphemous as it might sound, in my heart I hope we cut a deal with the Capitals. Medvedev getting to experience that run with Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, and two other less-known Russians would be incredible to follow. I went over that in my last post (link above). 

Now, after that thousand word intro, I want to take a look at what we could actually fetch from Washington for Meddy. I'm using SB Nation/Jasper's Rink to check out our options. Here are some limitations:

• I'm using the JR Top 25 Under 25 list to see how they evaluate their prospects. It's not perfect, but it limits the pool to younger guys and the parallel list on BroadStreetHockey was solid
• Andre Burakovsky (#1 in their Top 25 Under 25) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (#2) are almost certainly off-limits
• Forward prospects, especially wingers, would be ideal
• But some additional depth at the blueline wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing
• Age matters. An 18 year old is a full decade behind the Giroux/Voracek core, whereas a 22-25 year old should be ready to jump in and contribute immediately

Jakub Vrana, Center/Winger, Drafted 13th in 2014, 19 years old

The young Czech is cut from the Travis Konecny mold, in that he is small (5'11") but has shown solid puck possession skills. The JR outlook for this year sounds like he's good enough to play in the NHL but there isn't a spot for him quite yet. Well, my friend, we have plenty of spots for you in Philly, and one of those might even be on the opposite wing of the second-best Czech player in the NHL. 

Madison Bowey, Defenseman, Drafted 53rd in 2013, 20 years old

My favorite part of Bowey is the fact that he captained his junior team (Kelowna) to a WHL Champsionship. Not to bring up Konecny again, but I really believe that leadership in juniors is a great trait for a young player. We don't need a kid who can't even drink yet to lead the team, but it shows a maturity off the ice that is always welcome. 

On the ice, Bowey was a point-per-game player as a defensemen when he won that WHL trophy, and he's a right-handed shot. Those are a huge need for the Flyers going forward, as Radko Gudas is currently the only righty on the roster. 

Nate Schmidt, Defenseman, Undrafted in 2012, 24 years old

The exact quote from JR: "Schmidt's a good skater and a smart player, and those attributes set his floor pretty high." There is a lot to be gained from a defenseman that won't wow you like Ghost or Provy but earns a modest amount of money to contribute.

Now, if Schmidt was the entire haul for Medvedev, I'd riot. But I love the idea of him as a throw-in player, like Gudas last season. Schmidt's on the books at $750k this year and $875k next year, and then he's a restricted free agent. That's a dream contract for the Flyers; if he can chip in like an upgraded Brandon Manning for a couple years, that gives the prospects time to develop without handicapping the roster for years down the road.

Christian Djoos, Defenseman, Drafted 195th in 2012, 21 years old

Again right from JR: "Djoos' size will probably always be a concern, especially for a defenseman. But what he lacks in size, he makes up for in speed and passing ability." Hmmm... if only the Flyers had any sort of track record turning undersized, offensively talented defensemen into contributors. 

Tom Wilson, Winger, Drafted 16th in 2012, 21 years old

Tom Wilson is a sonofabitch, I know. But he's also just about to turn 22, and he seems like the kind of player that would benefit from a change of scenery. He's cast in the goon role in Washington, though he projected as a higher-end skill player coming out of juniors. 

I could see him fitting into the Flyers two ways: the easy comparison is Ryan White, who plays with very little skill but throws his weight around. The more challenging comparable (from a coaching standpoint) would be Wayne Simmonds. Big body? Check. Physical net-front presence with skill to create powerplay goals? I hope so. Ability to smash someone in the mouth if the throw a dirty hit? Hell yeah. 

And shit, now I've talked myself into trading for Tom Wilson.