Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

The Bruins Front Office Stinks

(Editor's note: I wrote this whole post without a title because I wanted to see where my research took me. And then I got to the end and came up with a title that should not be controversial at all because it is a factual statement.)

I am not a big Boston Bruins fan. I was a pseudo-fan in college because (1) three of my roommates were big Bruins fans and (2) they were good and I watched them make playoff runs basically all through college.

But I never followed the team online or behind the scenes like I follow the Flyers.

I know they traded Joe Thornton and Tyler Seguin away at different points in the past decade (and I know the common thought is they got swindled on the Seguin deal) but I've never really looked into comparing those trades. Today, Rear Admiral blogged on Barstool about supporting Thornton in a Sharks jersey this year, and it made me curious.

Let's dive into the hallmark personnel moves for the GM careers of Mike O'Connell and Peter Chiarelli.


December 2005

San Jose received: F Joe Thornton
Boston received: F Marco Sturm, F Wayne Primeau, F Brad Stuart

ESPN said: "San Jose sacrificed three members of their young core for Thornton, one of the NHL's top power forwards."

That trade isn't rare by any means - one team turned a solidified NHL contributor into younger pieces to build for the future. The term "hockey trade" usually means trading one player straight-up for another, but this type of move is probably more common for big-name players. 

And Thornton was certainly a big-name player at this point, which is why it's a weird move in retrospect. Four months before the trade, the Bruins had signed him to a 3-year deal to keep him in Boston through his twenties. He led the Bruins in points (and assists) the previous two years. He had also captained them to the playoffs twice (as the 7 seed in 2003 and the 2 seed in 2004). 

Despite the fact that they lost to the Canadiens in the first round 2-7 series, they were an improving team. And then they ditched their 26 year old captain, missed the 2004-05 season because of the lockout, and finished 13th in the East in 2005-06. One fun note: they used the high pick from finishing so poorly to draft Phil Kessel in 2006. Just keep that in mind for the the next 30 seconds or so. 

Obviously, Cups speak louder than anything, and the 2011 banner hanging in TD Garden makes it seem like moving on from Jumbo Joe was the right move. But did Marco, Wayne, or Brad really do anything? Their primary contribution was stinking and allowing the team to draft Kessel, Lucic, and Marchand.

And then our intermission trade happened.


September 2009

Toronto received: F Phil Kessel
Boston received: The picks that became F Tyler Seguin, D Dougie Hamilton, and lifetime minor leaguer Jared Knight

Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke said: "Bringing Phil Kessel aboard, it's a statement to our players that we intend to be competitive right away, and I think he gives us a dimension that we need."

The Leafs then promptly finished 15th, 10th, 13th, 5th, 12th, and 15th before shipping Kessel to Pittsburgh for picks and prospects. It's worth a mention that the year they finished 5th and made the playoffs they were knocked out by the Bruins in the first round. Game Seven of this series was the "It Was 4-1" game that you might have heard about, and a 21 year old Seguin finished the series with 1 assist and 29 shots on goal. 

Bonus ESPN said: "Kessel gives the Leafs a powerful offensive threat, though giving up three high draft picks appears to be quite costly. But the Leafs also have several promising rookies in Tyler Bozak, Viktor Stalberg, Nazem Kadri and Christian Hanson."

Would you rather:
  • 2 players: 686 NHL games, 197 goals, 481 points, 68 playoff games, 31 playoff points
  • 4 players: 1,216 NHL games, 262 goals, 625 points, 55 playoff games, 15 playoff points
It's worth mentioning that about a third of the regular season production (and almost all of the playoff production) came from Stalberg's time with the Chicago Blackhawks and not the Maple Leafs. 

Sorry, I got sidetracked. But I like when the Leafs are bad. Moving on!


July 2013

Dallas received: F Tyler Seguin, F Rich Peverley, lifetime minor leaguer Ryan Button
Boston received: F Loui Eriksson, D Joe Morrow, F Matt Faser (who was waived in 2014), F Reilly Smith (who was traded for F Jimmy Hayes)

Stars GM Jim Nill said: "It wasn't an easy trade for either party to make."

What an idiot! Fire Jim Nill right now. Somebody call @OldTakesExposed

Listen, obviously Dallas "won" this trade. Seguin is one of their franchise cornerstones and he's part of the highest-scoring duo of the past two years.

But, unlike the Thornton trade, I can see the logic behind the Bruins' move here. Boston had an aging core and wanted to bring in a more established player while also shedding Peverley's cap hit. Hindsight is 20/20, and Seguin was far from a sure thing at age 21. Eriksson, at age 28, was an established hired gun to complement the similarly-aged Bergeron, Krejci, and Marchand. 

My best guess is Boston knew the window was eventually going to shut, and I guess it made more sense for them to load up for a few years of runs with Eriksson, who was less costly:
  • Eriksson (expires this summer): $4.25 million cap hit
  • Seguin (signed after the trade, expires summer 2019): $5.75 million cap hit
Factor in Peverley's $3.25 million cap hit and you can understand the logic behind spending less than half the money. 

But (and this is a big but)... 

Seguin turned into a stud. 

Knowing what we know now, obviously this was a stupid trade for the Bruins. It might even be stupider than the Thornton trade (give it like five more years before we judge it). They gave away franchise-caliber players for role players and no-names, and didn't really compete with those acquired players on the roster. 

The only thing that will save Boston is if they bottom out next year and the following year, draft two cornerstone players, and load up for a run in 2019. But by that point, Bergeron and Krejci will both be 33 and making a combined $14 million. 

If 2019 is the target (four seasons after the trade, like it was with Thornton), then Boston should want a player in his mid-twenties to lead them (like Lucic, Krejci, Bergeron, and Horton did in 2011). How old is Tyler Seguin going to be in 2019? 

27. Would that work? 

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Let's Find Evgeny Medvedev A New Home, Part 2

Last night's performance was a rough one for the Flyers. Everyone stinks except Gostisbehere and there is no hope in the world and so on. It was, however, a decent night for Evgeny Medvedev; he contributed pretty significantly on offensive and defense:
It's time to revisit the idea of trading Evgeny Medvedev before this season's deadline. I initially wrote about this nearly a month ago as a remedy for the crowded blueline. Obviously, with Luke Schenn now playing for the Kings, the logjam is no longer an issue. But allow me to overreact to one bad game:

The Flyers aren't going to do anything this year. I've been optimistic basically all year, and I still think they are a solid, middle-of-the-pack team in the East. So I have a few bullets to go through:
  • A middle-of-the-pack team does not need a 33 year old defenseman for the future
  • Medvedev's 1-year contract means he's going to need more money (and more years) this summer
  • Del Zotto and Gostisbehere will definitely be back next season
  • Schultz, Gudas, and Manning will likely be back as well
  • Mark Streit is a question mark, but I can't imagine him netting enough assets to justify moving him
  • That's six defensemen returning to clog up the pipeline for Ivan Provorov, and we don't need more bodies in his way
So, ipso facto, we should trade Medvedev at the deadline to obtain an asset or two for the future. I get the sense that this was Hexy's plan all along; if Medvedev impressed, he's worth a moderate hall at the deadline. If he was a bust, then he'd be gone after one year anyway. 

On a much more positive note, trading Meddy to a legitimate contender would also allow him to really experience playing in the NHL. We all know the playoffs are a different animal altogether and the chance to really fight for a Stanley Cup would be a great way to end his rookie season in North America. 

As blasphemous as it might sound, in my heart I hope we cut a deal with the Capitals. Medvedev getting to experience that run with Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, and two other less-known Russians would be incredible to follow. I went over that in my last post (link above). 

Now, after that thousand word intro, I want to take a look at what we could actually fetch from Washington for Meddy. I'm using SB Nation/Jasper's Rink to check out our options. Here are some limitations:
  • I'm using the JR Top 25 Under 25 list to see how they evaluate their prospects. It's not perfect, but it limits the pool to younger guys and the parallel list on BroadStreetHockey was solid
  • Andre Burakovsky (#1 in their Top 25 Under 25) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (#2) are almost certainly off-limits
  • Forward prospects, especially wingers, would be ideal
  • But some additional depth at the blueline wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing
  • Age matters. An 18 year old is a full decade behind the Giroux/Voracek core, whereas a 22-25 year old should be ready to jump in and contribute immediately
Jakub Vrana, Center/Winger, Drafted 13th in 2014, 19 years old

The young Czech is cut from the Travis Konecny mold, in that he is small (5'11") but has shown solid puck possession skills. The JR outlook for this year sounds like he's good enough to play in the NHL but there isn't a spot for him quite yet. Well, my friend, we have plenty of spots for you in Philly, and one of those might even be on the opposite wing of the second-best Czech player in the NHL. 

Madison Bowey, Defenseman, Drafted 53rd in 2013, 20 years old

My favorite part of Bowey is the fact that he captained his junior team (Kelowna) to a WHL Champsionship. Not to bring up Konecny again, but I really believe that leadership in juniors is a great trait for a young player. We don't need a kid who can't even drink yet to lead the team, but it shows a maturity off the ice that is always welcome. 

On the ice, Bowey was a point-per-game player as a defensemen when he won that WHL trophy, and he's a right-handed shot. Those are a huge need for the Flyers going forward, as Radko Gudas is currently the only righty on the roster. 

Nate Schmidt, Defenseman, Undrafted in 2012, 24 years old

The exact quote from JR: "Schmidt's a good skater and a smart player, and those attributes set his floor pretty high." There is a lot to be gained from a defenseman that won't wow you like Ghost or Provy but earns a modest amount of money to contribute.

Now, if Schmidt was the entire haul for Medvedev, I'd riot. But I love the idea of him as a throw-in player, like Gudas last season. Schmidt's on the books at $750k this year and $875k next year, and then he's a restricted free agent. That's a dream contract for the Flyers; if he can chip in like an upgraded Brandon Manning for a couple years, that gives the prospects time to develop without handicapping the roster for years down the road.

Christian Djoos, Defenseman, Drafted 195th in 2012, 21 years old

Again right from JR: "Djoos' size will probably always be a concern, especially for a defenseman. But what he lacks in size, he makes up for in speed and passing ability." Hmmm... if only the Flyers had any sort of track record turning undersized, offensively talented defensemen into contributors. 

Tom Wilson, Winger, Drafted 16th in 2012, 21 years old

Tom Wilson is a sonofabitch, I know. But he's also just about to turn 22, and he seems like the kind of player that would benefit from a change of scenery. He's cast in the goon role in Washington, though he projected as a higher-end skill player coming out of juniors. 

I could see him fitting into the Flyers two ways: the easy comparison is Ryan White, who plays with very little skill but throws his weight around. The more challenging comparable (from a coaching standpoint) would be Wayne Simmonds. Big body? Check. Physical net-front presence with skill to create powerplay goals? I hope so. Ability to smash someone in the mouth if the throw a dirty hit? Hell yeah. 

And shit, now I've talked myself into trading for Tom Wilson. 

Thursday, January 7, 2016

Yesterday's Flyers-Kings Trade Was A Win For Everyone Involved

In case you were on vacation under a rock or your phone was broken yesterday, there were two huge trades in the NHL. The night ended with Columbus sending disgruntled center Ryan Johansen (bad attitude) to Nashville for Seth Jones (hockey's number one diversity man). Both players will turn over a new leaf - Johansen with his crappy attitude and Jones with the role of number one defenseman.

But in Philly, the biggest news of the day was the trade made between the Flyers and the Los Angeles Kings. The short version: Vinny Lecavalier and Luke Schenn to LA for prospect Jordan Weal and a third round pick. The long version: the Flyers will retain half of Lecavalier's and Schenn's salaries (Schenn expires after this year), and Lecavalier will agree to retire after this season and forfeit the remaining 2 years (and $9 million) on his contract.

Flyers twitter blew up with joy. We got rid of Vinny's contract. Holy shit.

Holy shit.

Ron Hextall actually did it.

It was a win for us in the short-term and long-term. But it was also a win for the Kings, and for each of the three players involved.

Philadelphia Flyers

The hope in Philly all season has been for Vinny to retire or agree to mutually terminate his contract. He still feels he can contribute, and was using his enormous contract as leverage to try to get on the ice in Philly. He left Hextall with three options: play him (quick note: he stunk when he played this year), buy him out (and be stuck with $2.25 million of dead cap money until 2020), or look to trade one of the worst contracts in the NHL.

Somehow, Ron did the damn thing. The one downside for the Flyers is they have to retain half of each player's salary. But if Vinny follows through this summer and retires, then there is no money on the books past this season (more on that part of it in the sections still to come).

The Luke Schenn side of the trade stings a little for me, as I'm sure it does for any Flyers fan with a brother. I loved watching Brayden and Luke play together. As dumb as it is, this interview made me start to tear up:
Luke was not a great fit for Coach Hakstol's system, and I believe (sticktap Sean Tierney) that he only had 1 pass leading to a shot attempt in his last 8 games. He clearly wasn't in the long-term plan, so give credit to Hextall for extracting assets and not holding onto him for too long.

The asset they extracted is 23 year old center Jordan Weal. His THN scouting report lists point production and play in his own end as his assets, and size as his flaw. Their bottom line on him is he's a depth forward with a little upside.

The Flyers turned a $4.5 million healthy scratch and an expiring defenseman that didn't fit their system into a prospect and a pick. That's a win (1/5).

Los Angeles Kings

On the other side of the table, it's hard to say the Kings got "fleeced" or even "taken advantage of". On the day when their goaltender and top defenseman were both named to John Scott's All-Star team, they added depth on defense and a little bit of potential on offense, without really giving up all that much.

Schenn will likely end up being their fourth or fifth best defenseman, which means he's going to be asked to (1) kill penalties (2) be big and physical (3) maybe contribute to the offense every now and then. Boom, done.

Lecavalier, on the other hand, is a question mark. He certainly has the size to fit with the Kings's style of play, and he has the experience and the pedigree to serve as a veteran leader. To his credit, he handled his disgruntling situation in Philly literally as well as he could have. He's a professional, and just wanted his chance. He'll get it, but we'll have to see who he spends his time on ice with, and how much time on ice he actually gets.

The Kings got both of these guys for a mid-round pick, a prospect that's too small to fit in with the team, and a total expense of around $4 million (none of which stays on the books past this year). That's a win (2/5).

Vincent Lecavalier

Tired of being the goat in Philly and sitting in the press box during games, Vinny finally decided to give in a little to get his old ass back on the ice. He was in a position to take a hit on his salary the next two years because he's already made upwards of $90 million in his career.

There were rumblings of a trade yesterday morning, but the only way it was ever going to work was if he agreed to retire after this year.

Vinny now has a chance to chase a cup with the Pacific-leading Kings, and there was a real outpouring of support from Flyers fans on Twitter wishing him luck. This saga could have ended very differently, but I get the sense that a big number of Flyers fan will (once again) be Kings fans in the spring.

Lecavalier has all the money in the world, and he gets to chase a second Stanley Cup with a team that (1) can contend and (2) has demonstrated that they want him. That's a win (3/5).

Jordan Weal

Weal's situation is strikingly similar to Lecavalier's, though it's a prospect compared to a potential Hall of Famer. He's been an elite AHL contributor the past few years, including leading the Kings' minor league affiliate to the Calder Cup and winning playoff MVP. But he can't seem to get on the ice for the big club this year.

In my eyes, it seems like Weal is too small to play the style of hockey LA wants to play. I wouldn't be surprised if, like Jonathan Drouin in Tampa, he asked to be traded. It's telling that we never heard any noise about any sort of request: First, it tells us that he's not as good as Drouin because he didn't feel like his talent could overcome the bad attitude label. Second, it tells us that he's not a dick, which is good.

It should. I'd love to see Hakstol use Weal to get Scott Laughton going. Both guys are nearing the end of their "prospect" phase, and both could benefit a lot financially by having some success in the second half of this season. Plus, don't they look like they could be the bad guys in any movie ever?



The bottom line is Weal needed a change of scenery. Ron Hextall said it best - "He’s a player that’s trying to prove he belongs in the NHL." He was having a hard time doing that on a team that didn't value his skill set, and he needed to get out.

He's going to get an extended tryout in Philly because he's not waiver-exempt - so if they try to send him to the AHL he could be claimed and they could lose him for nothing. Weal gets a chance to prove to everyone that he can play at the highest level in the sport, and he's now with a team that shuffles it lines around every two weeks. He should see time in the bottom-six but may end up spending time with the Flyers' core guys as well. That's a win (4/5).

Luke Schenn

I'm saving the hardest part for last. I'm going to miss Luke Schenn. By all accounts, he's a great person. He's just too big and slow for the style of hockey the Flyers want to play. So they turned him into assets, and that's good for the Philadelphia Flyers.

But it's also good for Big Schenn (or Fat Schenn, if you prefer), He's going to have less pressure on him in LA because he's going to have a legit top four above him. He can focus on doing what he's good at, and the team will appreciate his bruising style of play.

As it stands, the Flyers have a -22 goal differential and have five teams ahead of them in the Wild Card (not counting Toronto and Carolina, who have the same number of points as Philadelphia). They probably aren't going to make a run, and they obviously weren't planning on re-signing him. It would have been a waste for Luke to stick around.

The Kings, on the other hand, are ten points clear of everyone chasing them in the Pacific, and are almost a lock to play postseason hockey this year. Luke can chase a ring, and he (like Vinny) left on about as good terms as he possibly could have. That's a win (5/5).

-

The Flyers will play their first game without Luke and Vinny on the roster tonight in Minnesota. I expect Brayden Schenn to either score a hat trick and lead the team in hits or never score another goal again.