Tuesday, November 29, 2016

I've Been Fucking Around With Some Hockey Possession Stats

As you may have heard, 2016 is the year that Corsi died. It peaked last season, but now people seem to realize that there is more to the game of hockey than CF/60 and CF%.

I'd strongly encourage you to read up on Dom's Game Score:
..but there are a million different ways to calculate possession and useful possession and offensive impact.

An easy way, at least for me, is adding up even strength Corsi, Fenwick, Shots, Scoring Chances, Expected Goals, and Goals. For this experiment, I set the minutes floor at 120 (about 8 games played) and calculated Total Counts Per 60.

Good At Hockey

Let's jump right into the numbers. Here's my top ten (green shading is better than average, red shading is worse than average):

Player Pos Team TF/60 TA/60 TF%
BRAD.MARCHAND C BOS 182.24 106.72 63.07%
DAVID.PASTRNAK R BOS 187.21 111.4 62.69%
PATRICE.BERGERON C BOS 171.46 103.32 62.40%
BRAYDEN.MCNABB D L.A 165.64 103.11 61.63%
CONOR.SHEARY L PIT 187.15 124.34 60.08%
SIDNEY.CROSBY C PIT 202.02 134.63 60.01%
JORDAN.STAAL C CAR 166.68 111.34 59.95%
MICHAEL.RAFFL L PHI 163.02 111.77 59.33%
ANZE.KOPITAR C L.A 155.81 108.51 58.95%
PATRIC.HORNQVIST R PIT 203.9 145.28 58.39%


First things first with that top ten is the Flyers are probably FUCKED tonight against the Bruins. That Marchand-Bergeron-Pastknak light is deadly at even strength, and I'd probably expect them to net at least a pair of goals tonight in Philly. 

The second takeaway with this (admittedly simple) statistical calculation is it's probably a solid measuring stick. That Boston line and Pittsburgh's Crosby line are two of the best lines in hockey, and Kopital, Staal, and Raffl are three of the best possession players in the league. Brayden McNabb is a bit questionable, but the Kings dominate possession (and they're a point behind first in the Pacific with a game in hand). 

Bad At Hockey

The top is all well and good, but now let's look at the bottom of that list:

Player Pos Team TF/60 TA/60 TF%
CHRIS.STEWART R MIN 99.49 153.73 39.29%
BEN.SMITH R COL/TOR 108.68 167.6 39.34%
MICHAEL.STONE D ARI 118.85 180.87 39.65%
DREW.MILLER L DET 112.14 166.18 40.29%
ALEX.GOLIGOSKI D ARI 121.24 178.56 40.44%
COLTON.SISSONS C NSH 99.68 145.21 40.70%
ANDREAS.MARTINSEN L COL 108 156.74 40.79%
BEN.CHIAROT D WPG 106.22 152.23 41.10%
DEREK.MACKENZIE C FLA 106.47 151.48 41.28%
ANDREW.COPP C WPG 108.63 153.29 41.47%
STEVE.OTT C DET 107.75 151.65 41.54%
TOBIAS.RIEDER C ARI 128.98 180.87 41.63%
KEVIN.BIEKSA D ANA 113.09 158.2 41.69%
TEDDY.PURCELL R L.A 110.1 151.91 42.02%
DEVIN.SHORE C DAL 124.53 171.08 42.13%
JAMIE.MCGINN L ARI 131.88 180.88 42.17%
NIKLAS.KRONWALL D DET 115.07 157.12 42.28%
SHANE.DOAN R ARI 122.37 166.9 42.30%
DEREK.GRANT C BUF 120.37 164.17 42.30%
TRAVIS.HAMONIC D NYI 128.36 174.92 42.32%
With three exceptions, these all qualify as guys that don't really scare you. Those exceptions are:
  • Kronwall and Doan, who combine for 75 years of age
  • Hamonic, who gets stuck with tough minutes on a shitty Islanders team (his usual partner, Nick Leddy, is right behind this list with a TF% of 42.54%)
Good At Offense

Regardless of opportunities conceded, who's generating the most in the offensive zone?

Player Pos Team TF/60 TA/60 TF%
PATRIC.HORNQVIST R PIT 203.9 145.28 58.39%
SIDNEY.CROSBY C PIT 202.02 134.63 60.01%
DAVID.PASTRNAK R BOS 187.21 111.4 62.69%
CONOR.SHEARY L PIT 187.15 124.34 60.08%
BRAD.MARCHAND C BOS 182.24 106.72 63.07%
VIKTOR.ARVIDSSON L NSH 180.29 150.86 54.44%
SCOTT.WILSON C PIT 179.79 143.72 55.57%
JAKE.GARDINER D TOR 176.87 147.45 54.54%
ZACH.HYMAN C TOR 174.01 155.15 52.86%
PATRICK.MAROON L EDM 173.15 132.09 56.73%
JORDAN.EBERLE C EDM 172.91 146.92 54.06%
AUSTON.MATTHEWS C TOR 172.6 147.18 53.97%
PATRICE.BERGERON C BOS 171.46 103.32 62.40%
WILLIAM.NYLANDER C TOR 171.25 157.61 52.07%
CHRIS.KUNITZ L PIT 170.88 140.33 54.91%
MICHAEL.DEL ZOTTO D PHI 170.09 142.08 54.49%
BRENDAN.GALLAGHER R MTL 169.93 153.63 52.52%
MATTHEW.TKACHUK L CGY 169.86 132.11 56.25%
KRIS.LETANG D PIT 169.56 139.87 54.80%
CONNOR.CARRICK D TOR 169.3 138.86 54.94%
The top of this list looks extremely familiar, but the biggest takeaway is additional confirmation that Toronto is a very fun team to watch. 

Also, hey Michael Del Zotto, maybe we should pair you with a solid defensive partner instead of scratching you in the press box. Just a thought. 

Bad At Offense

Player Pos Team TF/60 TA/60 TF%
CHRIS.THORBURN R WPG 97.57 130.32 42.81%
CHRIS.STEWART R MIN 99.49 153.73 39.29%
COLTON.SISSONS C NSH 99.68 145.21 40.70%
BRANDON.TANEV L WPG 103.34 131.11 44.08%
ALEX.BURMISTROV C WPG 103.51 137.76 42.90%
BEN.CHIAROT D WPG 106.22 152.23 41.10%
DEREK.MACKENZIE C FLA 106.47 151.48 41.28%
STEVE.OTT C DET 107.75 151.65 41.54%
ANDREAS.MARTINSEN L COL 108 156.74 40.79%
ANDREW.COPP C WPG 108.63 153.29 41.47%
ERIC.FEHR R PIT 108.65 137.14 44.20%
BEN.SMITH R COL/TOR 108.68 167.6 39.34%
AUSTIN.WATSON L NSH 109.16 128.74 45.88%
MARK.LETESTU C EDM 109.3 148.25 42.44%
TYLER.GRAOVAC C MIN 109.96 145.13 43.11%
GUSTAV.FORSLING D CHI 109.97 145.69 43.01%
TEDDY.PURCELL R L.A 110.1 151.91 42.02%
ANDREAS.ATHANASIOU C DET 110.32 129.07 46.08%
JIMMY.VESEY L NYR 111.14 133.92 45.35%
GREG.MCKEGG C FLA 111.26 131.43 45.84%
Fuck you, Greg McKegg. 

Good At Defense

Player Pos Team TF/60 TA/60 TF%
CARL.GUNNARSSON D STL 111.77 96.32 53.71%
KEVIN.SHATTENKIRK D STL 128.18 102.02 55.68%
MELKER.KARLSSON C S.J 133.48 102.03 56.68%
DMITRIJ.JASKIN R STL 138.58 103.03 57.36%
BRAYDEN.MCNABB D L.A 165.64 103.11 61.63%
PATRICE.BERGERON C BOS 171.46 103.32 62.40%
NIC.PETAN C WPG 125.79 104.93 54.52%
MATT.STAJAN C CGY 132.16 106.55 55.36%
DALE.WEISE R PHI 144.06 106.57 57.48%
BRAD.MARCHAND C BOS 182.24 106.72 63.07%
DANIEL.WINNIK C WSH 127.06 108.09 54.03%
HAMPUS.LINDHOLM D ANA 135.96 108.12 55.70%
RYAN.REAVES R STL 144.09 108.3 57.09%
ANZE.KOPITAR C L.A 155.81 108.51 58.95%
LARS.ELLER C WSH 147.53 108.63 57.59%
NAIL.YAKUPOV R STL 150.61 111.01 57.57%
JORDAN.STAAL C CAR 166.68 111.34 59.95%
DAVID.PASTRNAK R BOS 187.21 111.4 62.69%
SEBASTIAN.AHO R CAR 139.38 111.41 55.58%
ARTEMI.PANARIN C CHI 134.07 111.72 54.55%
I would not have expected to find Yakupov and Panarin in this group, and I would not have expected to find Weise in any group that includes the word "good" - but if you look at the raw totals, those two Russians and that big dumb Dutchman stifle their opponents (or at least prevent them from setting up in their zone). 

Bad At Defense

Player Pos Team TF/60 TA/60 TF%
JAMIE.MCGINN L ARI 131.88 180.88 42.17%
MICHAEL.STONE D ARI 118.85 180.87 39.65%
TOBIAS.RIEDER C ARI 128.98 180.87 41.63%
ALEX.GOLIGOSKI D ARI 121.24 178.56 40.44%
MARTIN.HANZAL C ARI 138.59 176.78 43.95%
MARTIN.MARINCIN D TOR 154.83 174.96 46.95%
TRAVIS.HAMONIC D NYI 128.36 174.92 42.32%
ROMAN.POLAK D TOR 145.31 173.1 45.64%
CHRISTIAN.DVORAK L ARI 131.15 173.08 43.11%
ANTHONY.DUCLAIR L ARI 147.36 172.74 46.04%
MITCHELL.MARNER C TOR 163.06 172.46 48.60%
DEVIN.SHORE C DAL 124.53 171.08 42.13%
ANTHONY.DEANGELO D ARI 138.78 171.03 44.80%
TYLER.BOZAK C TOR 163.64 170.55 48.97%
PATRIK.NEMETH D DAL 160.05 170.43 48.43%
JASON.CHIMERA L NYI 139.41 170.23 45.02%
BRANDON.DUBINSKY C CBJ 138.57 170.22 44.88%
LUKE.SCHENN D ARI 145 169.52 46.10%
LAURI.KORPIKOSKI L DAL 136.53 169.5 44.61%
NICK.LEDDY D NYI 124.74 168.48 42.54%
I'm going to have to ask someone who follows the Islanders why Hamonic and Leddy appear here along guys who are substantially worse than them. I mean the Polak-Hunwick pairing in Toronto may well be the worst defensive pairing in the league. Clearly Hamonic and Leddy are at least a step better than those scrubs. 

Speaking of Toronto, perhaps the reason Marner hasn't woo'd Leafs fans like Auston Matthews and William Nylander is because he's horrible at defense. Just saying. 

Also, of the 20 players on this list, NINE of them are Coyotes. Woof. 

Fun To Watch

Player Pos Team TF/60 TA/60 TF% TF+TA
PATRIC.HORNQVIST R PIT 203.9 145.28 58.39% 349.18
SIDNEY.CROSBY C PIT 202.02 134.63 60.01% 336.65
MITCHELL.MARNER C TOR 163.06 172.46 48.60% 335.52
TYLER.BOZAK C TOR 163.64 170.55 48.97% 334.19
JAMES.VAN RIEMSDYK L TOR 167.5 164.93 50.39% 332.43
VIKTOR.ARVIDSSON L NSH 180.29 150.86 54.44% 331.15
PATRIK.NEMETH D DAL 160.05 170.43 48.43% 330.48
MARTIN.MARINCIN D TOR 154.83 174.96 46.95% 329.79
ZACH.HYMAN C TOR 174.01 155.15 52.86% 329.16
WILLIAM.NYLANDER C TOR 171.25 157.61 52.07% 328.86
MORGAN.RIELLY D TOR 166.98 160.91 50.93% 327.89
ALEX.GALCHENYUK C MTL 168.26 158.69 51.46% 326.95
JAKE.GARDINER D TOR 176.87 147.45 54.54% 324.32
BRENDAN.GALLAGHER R MTL 169.93 153.63 52.52% 323.56
SCOTT.WILSON C PIT 179.79 143.72 55.57% 323.51
MIKE.RIBEIRO C NSH 163.46 158.74 50.73% 322.2
CONNOR.BROWN R TOR 159.06 161.81 49.57% 320.87
ANTHONY.DUCLAIR L ARI 147.36 172.74 46.04% 320.1
JORDAN.EBERLE C EDM 172.91 146.92 54.06% 319.83
AUSTON.MATTHEWS C TOR 172.6 147.18 53.97% 319.78

It's a good sign for the NHL that this list features the best player in the league (Crosby) and a host of young talent (Marner, Nylander, Galchenyuk, Duclair, Eberle, Matthews). It's also very telling that the only person on this list to be better-than-average in both columns in Crosby. 

Boring To Watch

Player Pos Team TF/60 TA/60 TF% TF+TA
CARL.GUNNARSSON D STL 111.77 96.32 53.71% 208.09
CHRIS.THORBURN R WPG 97.57 130.32 42.81% 227.89
KEVIN.SHATTENKIRK D STL 128.18 102.02 55.68% 230.2
NIC.PETAN C WPG 125.79 104.93 54.52% 230.72
TOM.WILSON R WSH 116.3 116.39 49.98% 232.69
BRANDON.TANEV L WPG 103.34 131.11 44.08% 234.45
DANIEL.WINNIK C WSH 127.06 108.09 54.03% 235.15
MELKER.KARLSSON C S.J 133.48 102.03 56.68% 235.51
AUSTIN.WATSON L NSH 109.16 128.74 45.88% 237.9
MARK.PYSYK D FLA 119.97 118.68 50.27% 238.65
MATT.STAJAN C CGY 132.16 106.55 55.36% 238.71
BRENDAN.GAUNCE C VAN 114.64 124.66 47.91% 239.3
ANDREAS.ATHANASIOU C DET 110.32 129.07 46.08% 239.39
TYLER.PITLICK C EDM 111.46 128.84 46.38% 240.3
MARKO.DANO C WPG 115.3 125.33 47.92% 240.63
VERNON.FIDDLER C N.J 116.7 124.11 48.46% 240.81
ALEX.BURMISTROV C WPG 103.51 137.76 42.90% 241.27
PAUL.STASTNY C STL 127.37 113.98 52.77% 241.35
DMITRIJ.JASKIN R STL 138.58 103.03 57.36% 241.61
JOE.COLBORNE C COL 125.44 116.62 51.82% 242.06
The Jets are in second-to-last place in the Central, they are completely tanking in the playoff race, and they make up like half of this "most boring" list. Should of just stayed in Atlanta. 
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)