Thursday, August 11, 2016

Let's Bet On Some Pool Activities Again Tonight

First off, I just looked at the Blogger dashboard and my last blog about Yulia Efimova was this site's 420th entry. Nice, especially for a blog that was primarily about drugs. My Girl Yulia will be making another appearance in this post, though I haven't figured out if she's going to be My Girl again tonight.

It's a big night for everyone's favorite Olympic sports. The individual gymnastics competition is happening at 3:00 today, but we're all going to try to avoid spoilers so we can pretend to watch it live tonight.

One quick note on spoilers: there is a girl from high school that I still followed (past tense) on Twitter even though she hadn't tweeted in like three years. She decided to hop back on Twitter right in the middle of the NBC gymnastics broadcast on Sunday and retweet a congratulatory tweet that spoiled the whole goddamn contest for me. Then, I'm assuming, she logged off and won't log on again until she finds a copy of the script to the last episode of Game Of Thrones and ruins that for all of us too. </rant>

Swimming! Swimming is happening tonight in addition to gymnastics. There are four finals tonight, and I think we should try to bet on all of them. Let's dive right in. </puns>

9:17pm, Women's 200m Breaststroke

World Record: Rebecca Soni (USA) - 2:14.57 (2009)
Fastest in Heats: Rike Moller Pedersen (DEN) - 2:22.72
Fastest in Semis: Taylor McKeown (AUS) - 2:21.69
Available Odds: McKeown +175, Rie Kaneto +200, Efimova +400

Pedersen seems to not really have a chance, as she only moderately improved from Heats to Semis and she was passed by McKeown, Japan's Kaneto, Britain's Molly Renshaw, and China's Shi Jinglin (Hall Of Fame-caliber name).

Basically, it's a two-horse race and I'm inserting my own third horse because I love her. But Yulia finished almost a full second behind McKeown in the Semis. Efimova is kinda sorta the world record holder at 2:14.39, but she was on meldonium for that race so it's been discounted.

As far as someone else unseating McKeown, second-place Kaneto was half a second back. The distance between first and second was the same as between second and fifth. So it's McKeown at +175 - she's not going to break the record, but she'll win by half a second or more.

9:26pm, Men's 200m Backstroke

World Record: Mitch Larkin (AUS) - 1:45.63 (2015)
Fastest in Heats: Evgeny Rylov (RUS) - 1:55.02
Fastest in Semis: Rylov - 1:54.45
Available Odds: Larkin -125, Ryan Murphy +140, Rylov +200

At first glance, the easy bet is the guy who was fastest in the previous two rounds who also pays 2/1. But there's a reason Rylov's payout is that high, and it's because another guy in the field finished almost TEN SECONDS faster last Fall.

But if you're looking for a "Hmmm" on Larkin, he's about ten seconds over his peak time now, and he finished off the podium in fourth place in the 100m backstroke (Murphy won, for what it's worth). Maybe that competition was draining Larkin just enough and he'll carve two seconds off the 1:54.73 he swam in the Semis.

But we have a legit three horse race in this one, folks. Take your pick:

  • The world record holder, swimming in his final event of this Olympics
  • The guy who won gold in the shorter version of this event, also in his final event of this Olympics
  • The guy who won the first two legs of this contest, you guessed it, also swimming in his final event of this Olympics
Take your pick. I'm going to let Alex decide. 

10:01pm, Men's 200m Individual Medley

World Record: Ryan Lochte (USA) - 1:49.63 (2012)
Fastest in Heats: Lochte - 1:57.38
Fastest in Semis: Michael Phelps (USA) - 1:55.78
Available Odds: Phelps -400, Kosuke Hagino +325, Lochte +650

I cannot, for the life of me, figure out why Lochte's line is so high. He's the world record holder. If you want to say his age is the issue, well he's only a year older than Phelps. If you want to point to Hagino as the reason, well that dude finished behind Lochte in the Heats (Hagino came in 6th, Lochte 1st) and Semis (Hagino 4th, Lochte 2nd).

And then, Phelps. If this was all eight swimmers on full rest, he's surely the favorite. I don't know if he'd be a -400 favorite, but obviously he'd be the one everyone expects to win. But they're not all on the same rest, and Phelps is swimming the Heats for the 100m butterfly this afternoon and the Semis for that same contest at 10:34pm. Granted, I'd worry much more about the later race, but swimming three Olympic races in one day is rougher than swimming one, as Hagino and Lochte will be doing.

I like Lochte at +650. I like that line a lot.

10:18pm, Women's 100m Freestyle

World Record: Cate Campbell (AUS) - 50.91 (2015)
Fastest in Heats: Campbell - 52.78
Fastest in Semis: Campbell - 52.71
Available Odds: Campbell -1000, You Are An Idiot If You Bet On Anyone Else

The 100m freestyle is the sexiest event in Olympic swimming. It's the shortest distance of the fastest stroke and it's essentially determine the Usain Bolt of swimming.

Well, this year there is no fucking doubt that Cate Campbell is the Usain Bolt of swimming. She set the Olympic record in the Heats, then broke it in the Semis, and will probably break it in the Finals. I'd really love Bovada to set an over/under on her time instead of just setting an extremely prohibitive moneyline. I don't think there's any doubt she beats 52.71, but can she get under 52.5? Or 52.0?

I'd take all of the money that you own, plus all of you winnings from McKeown, the 200 Back, and Lochte, and bet it on Campbell. If you can get a small $1 million loan from your father like Donald Trump did, this race'll win you a cool $100 grand.

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