Simone Biles Is Incredible

Yesterday was not great. I spent the afternoon thinking we nailed our Simone Biles +626 parlay, only to find out that they do a separate contest for each individual activity and she's only a quarter of the way through that parlay.

Then, we bet on three swimmers that finished fifth, second, and fifth.

Not ideal.

So I'm going to try to inject some positive energy into this morning. Simone has DOMINATED the individual all-around file twice now, and she should continue dominating as the competition progresses. What's left of our parlay is three legs: beam, vault, and floor.

Vault

Simone in the Team event: 15.933 (1st)
Simone in the Individual event: 16.000 (1st)
Girls to watch out for:

• Aly Raisman (USA) finished second in both Team and Individual with a 15.833 and a 15.766
• Maria Paseka (RUS) finished third in Team with 15.700 but didn't compete in Individual
• Giulia Steingruber (SUI) didn't compete in Team but finished third in Individual with 15.600
• Rebecca Andrade (BRA) finished fourth in Team and Individual with a 15.400 and a 15.566
• Aliya Mustafinia (RUS) tied for fifth in Team with 15.133 and finished fifth in Individual with 15.166
• Ellie Downie (GBR) tied for fifth in Team with 15.133 and finished ninth in Individual with 14.833

Confidence level: Very high. Simone could screw up and drop down to the mid-15's, and someone like Raisman or Paseka or Steingruber could overtake her, but that's not happening. This is Simone's strongest event. As the gay NBC announcer always says, she runs higher and jumps faster than any gymnast in history.

Beam

Simone in the Team event: 15.300 (1st)
Simone in the Individual event: 15.633 (1st)
Girls to watch out for:

• Sanne Wevers (NED) finished second in Team with 15.250 but didn't compete in Individual
• Laurie Hernandez (USA) finished third in Team with 15.233 but didn't compete in Individual
• Two Chinese Girls (CHN) finished fourth in Team with 15.066 but only one competed in Individual and she finished eighth with 14.366
• Aly Raisman (USA) finished fifth in Team with 15.000 and third in Individual with 14.833
• Aliya Mustafina (RUS) finished sixth in Team with 14.958 but tanked in Individual and scored just 13.033, placing her 21st out of 24
• Flavor Flavia Saraiva (BRA) finished seventh in Team with 14.833 and second in Individual with 15.133

Confidence level: High. Simone and Flavia were the only two competitors with a chance to win who improved from the Team event to the Individual event. Everyone else either was hungover or cracked under the pressure. And Simone, as is the case in every event except the uneven bars, is just better than everyone else. She doesn't have quite as big a cushion on the beam as she does on the vault, but there's still a sizable cushion there by gymnastics standards. 

Floor

Simone in the Team event: 15.800 (1st)

Simone in the Individual event: 15.733 (1st)
Girls to watch out for:

• Aly Raisman (USA) finished second in Team and Individual with a 15.366 and a 15.275
• Vanessa Ferrari (ITA) didn't compete in Team but finished third in Individual with 14.866
• Laurie Hernandez (USA) finished third in Team with 14.833 but didn't compete in Individual
• Wang Yan (CHN) finished fourth in Team and Individual with a 14.733 and a 14.666  
• Everyone else's best score was at least a full point behind Simone's worst score

Confidence level: I mean, come on. No worries on the floor at all. I was mad when I realized we didn't win the money yesterday, but she's dominated every event twice now. There's no reason to start doubting her at this stage. 

Let's Bet On Some Pool Activities Again Tonight

First off, I just looked at the Blogger dashboard and my last blog about Yulia Efimova was this site's 420th entry. Nice, especially for a blog that was primarily about drugs. My Girl Yulia will be making another appearance in this post, though I haven't figured out if she's going to be My Girl again tonight.

It's a big night for everyone's favorite Olympic sports. The individual gymnastics competition is happening at 3:00 today, but we're all going to try to avoid spoilers so we can pretend to watch it live tonight.

One quick note on spoilers: there is a girl from high school that I still followed (past tense) on Twitter even though she hadn't tweeted in like three years. She decided to hop back on Twitter right in the middle of the NBC gymnastics broadcast on Sunday and retweet a congratulatory tweet that spoiled the whole goddamn contest for me. Then, I'm assuming, she logged off and won't log on again until she finds a copy of the script to the last episode of Game Of Thrones and ruins that for all of us too. </rant>

Swimming! Swimming is happening tonight in addition to gymnastics. There are four finals tonight, and I think we should try to bet on all of them. Let's dive right in. </puns>

9:17pm, Women's 200m Breaststroke

World Record: Rebecca Soni (USA) - 2:14.57 (2009)
Fastest in Heats: Rike Moller Pedersen (DEN) - 2:22.72
Fastest in Semis: Taylor McKeown (AUS) - 2:21.69
Available Odds: McKeown +175, Rie Kaneto +200, Efimova +400

Pedersen seems to not really have a chance, as she only moderately improved from Heats to Semis and she was passed by McKeown, Japan's Kaneto, Britain's Molly Renshaw, and China's Shi Jinglin (Hall Of Fame-caliber name).

Basically, it's a two-horse race and I'm inserting my own third horse because I love her. But Yulia finished almost a full second behind McKeown in the Semis. Efimova is kinda sorta the world record holder at 2:14.39, but she was on meldonium for that race so it's been discounted.

As far as someone else unseating McKeown, second-place Kaneto was half a second back. The distance between first and second was the same as between second and fifth. So it's McKeown at +175 - she's not going to break the record, but she'll win by half a second or more.

9:26pm, Men's 200m Backstroke

World Record: Mitch Larkin (AUS) - 1:45.63 (2015)
Fastest in Heats: Evgeny Rylov (RUS) - 1:55.02
Fastest in Semis: Rylov - 1:54.45
Available Odds: Larkin -125, Ryan Murphy +140, Rylov +200

At first glance, the easy bet is the guy who was fastest in the previous two rounds who also pays 2/1. But there's a reason Rylov's payout is that high, and it's because another guy in the field finished almost TEN SECONDS faster last Fall.

But if you're looking for a "Hmmm" on Larkin, he's about ten seconds over his peak time now, and he finished off the podium in fourth place in the 100m backstroke (Murphy won, for what it's worth). Maybe that competition was draining Larkin just enough and he'll carve two seconds off the 1:54.73 he swam in the Semis.

But we have a legit three horse race in this one, folks. Take your pick:

• The world record holder, swimming in his final event of this Olympics
• The guy who won gold in the shorter version of this event, also in his final event of this Olympics
• The guy who won the first two legs of this contest, you guessed it, also swimming in his final event of this Olympics

Take your pick. I'm going to let Alex decide. 

10:01pm, Men's 200m Individual Medley

World Record: Ryan Lochte (USA) - 1:49.63 (2012)
Fastest in Heats: Lochte - 1:57.38
Fastest in Semis: Michael Phelps (USA) - 1:55.78
Available Odds: Phelps -400, Kosuke Hagino +325, Lochte +650

I cannot, for the life of me, figure out why Lochte's line is so high. He's the world record holder. If you want to say his age is the issue, well he's only a year older than Phelps. If you want to point to Hagino as the reason, well that dude finished behind Lochte in the Heats (Hagino came in 6th, Lochte 1st) and Semis (Hagino 4th, Lochte 2nd).

And then, Phelps. If this was all eight swimmers on full rest, he's surely the favorite. I don't know if he'd be a -400 favorite, but obviously he'd be the one everyone expects to win. But they're not all on the same rest, and Phelps is swimming the Heats for the 100m butterfly this afternoon and the Semis for that same contest at 10:34pm. Granted, I'd worry much more about the later race, but swimming three Olympic races in one day is rougher than swimming one, as Hagino and Lochte will be doing.

I like Lochte at +650. I like that line a lot.

10:18pm, Women's 100m Freestyle

World Record: Cate Campbell (AUS) - 50.91 (2015)
Fastest in Heats: Campbell - 52.78
Fastest in Semis: Campbell - 52.71
Available Odds: Campbell -1000, You Are An Idiot If You Bet On Anyone Else

The 100m freestyle is the sexiest event in Olympic swimming. It's the shortest distance of the fastest stroke and it's essentially determine the Usain Bolt of swimming.

Well, this year there is no fucking doubt that Cate Campbell is the Usain Bolt of swimming. She set the Olympic record in the Heats, then broke it in the Semis, and will probably break it in the Finals. I'd really love Bovada to set an over/under on her time instead of just setting an extremely prohibitive moneyline. I don't think there's any doubt she beats 52.71, but can she get under 52.5? Or 52.0?

I'd take all of the money that you own, plus all of you winnings from McKeown, the 200 Back, and Lochte, and bet it on Campbell. If you can get a small $1 million loan from your father like Donald Trump did, this race'll win you a cool $100 grand.