Bad, baaad fucking news, boys. Sean Couturier is going to be too injured to play tonight in Pittsburgh. It's a mysterious lower body injury, and nobody really seems to have a read on what's wrong with him.
So fuck.
The Flyers announced the scratch after warmups this morning in Pittsburgh, and it seems like Flyers twitter is in absolute shambles right now. Coots generally is tasked with shutting down the Malkin line (and Giroux tends to play against the Crosby line), This gameplan, recently, has been almost unbeatable against Pittsburgh - the Flyers have won their last 64 matchups with the Penguins.
But tonight is going to be tough, and it's deeper than just "we can't stick Coots on Malkin." The game is in Pittsburgh, which means Penguins coach (Googles who that is) Mike Sullivan is going to have the ability to seek the matchups that he desires. So if he doesn't want Crosby/Malkin going against Giroux's line, he can yank them off and send them out against the Ryan White line or the RJ Umberger line.
(Puts gun in mouth)
We can fix this. We need to balance at least three lines so that we don't leave a crappy trio out there to get torched. If we happen to notice three guys are playing like crap, we'll sit them or heavily shelter them.
Necessity is the mother of invention, so to speak, so here is version 8 of the Flyers 2015-16 lineup card (the general theme of these lines is "let's throw some shit at the wall to see what might work"):
Laughton - Giroux - Vandevelde
Laughton's two shortcomings this season have been (1) lack of ice time/ability to get into a rhythm (2) issues in the defensive zone. So let's throw him with the captain to let him get some solid usage and put him with two of the better defensive forwards that we have.
If Laughton stinks again early, I'd LOVE to see a White-Giroux-VV line. I advocated for this months ago, and I don't think there's a better time for that trio than a game against Pittsburgh where we're scrambling. 25-28-76 is a phenomenal bunker/trenches type of line.
Voracek - Schenn - Read
Brayden hasn't really showed that he can center a line yet, but Voracek is talented enough that he carried the Bellemare/Vandevelde experiment to a respectable line. Mix in Read, who's stellar basically from end to end, and this is another line that can chew up minutes against the Penguins' big boys.
There's also quite a big of offensive skill here, so they could punish the Pens' bottom six if given the chance.
Simmonds - Bellemare - Raffl
This is a prototypical checking line, essentially just a pair of upgrades on the usual White-Bellemare-Vandevelde line. They should be solid in all three zones (maybe even a little devious in the attacking zone), and they're all big enough to carry their own defensively.
Umberger - Weal - White
And now it all goes to shit. Even if we shelter this line or swap White and Laughton, Weal is a total question mark. Umberger is a thumbs down emoji with the font size dragged all the way up as big as possible. Ideally they'd play 8-10 minutes, but Umberger was -2 (with two missed open goals) in under 6 minutes on Tuesday.
If the goal is to mitigate the damage, we need to split up the Giroux/Voracek/Simmonds line and the Raffl/Schenn pairing. It's nice to be top-heavy when you can play matchups and the team is at full strength, but we don't have either of those luxuries tonight.
It's going to be a rough ride, and we're going to find out a lot about how much fight this team has. I expect absolutely ferocious games from everyone, but especially Giroux, Del Zotto, and Brayden Schenn. I'm also going to be keeping an eye on Shayne Gostisbehere, because this feels like a milestone game for him (his first against Pittsburgh) and I'm excited to see how he handles it.
(Update: The Flyers have recalled Sam Gagner! Here comes the hungry cavalry! I could see him being slotted in for Read with Voracek/Schenn (bumping read down to Umberger's spot) or just swapping Gagner in directly for Umberger. If Gagner goes to that fourth line, I'd bump White up to Giroux's line to leave us with Laughton-Weal-Gagner as the sheltered line.)
Follow along on twitter, I'll be going back and forth between #coldones and chugging bleach. Let's go Flyers.
Showing posts with label lineup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lineup. Show all posts
Thursday, January 21, 2016
Thursday, October 1, 2015
Flyers Lineup Prediction, Volume 2
With one preseason game remaining (before the unofficial two-game second preseason in Florida), the roster is starting to take shape. There are a few key contributors next year that are back in Canada with the Weed Kings, Hitmen, and 67's. There are a few guys in Lehigh Valley that should make a splash in a year or two.
And now onto Volume 2, after a lot of time spend watching and even more time spent on Twitter.
Forwards 1: Raffl - Giroux - Voracek
Forwards 4: Vandevelde - Bellemare - White
Nothing has changed on my first and fourth lines, because nothing needs to change. The first is one of the best lines in the NHL, and the fourth is one of the best fourth lines in the league. These two are simple. I wrote about them in my "Six Lines I Want To See" post, and they met or exceeded my expectations. Get well soon, Raf.
Forwards 2: Gagner - Couturier - Simmonds
I like the playmaking ability of Gagner (I hope the nickname Sammer holds), the physicality of Coots, and the gritty goalscoring of Simmer on a line together. And keep this in your back pocket: Sammer is 26, Simmer is 27, and Coots is 22. If the plan is to move the huge contracts of Lecavalier/Umberger/Streit/MacDonald/Schenn, there's going to be a lot of money to go around. If this line clicks and becomes a productive second line, let's lock Sam up long term and let him pick up where his older brother Simon left off. I think we're more likely to see Read or Brayden in that spot, but I'd rather stack two lines than let Coots dwindle as a tweener again.
Forwards 3: Porter - Schenn - Read
This line is clearly a notch below the top two in terms of talent and experience. But you will see all three of these names later on when we get to the special teams lines. For a team that isn't expected to contend this season (we lost twice to the Devils last night), it's not the end of the world to have a line who can defend and also create plays and maybe pot a few goals. However, there is a larger prize that I expect Hextall to force Hakstoll to look for...
Forwards 3: Schenn - Lecavalier - Umberger
There is SO much to be gained this year by having Lecavalier (35 years old) and Umberger (33) look decent enough to trade their huge contracts. Here's how we do that. If another line is nearing the end of a shift, chip the puck on goal and crash the net. Get an offensive zone faceoff. Then in come these three losers with a D-pair that can score, and we try to design some plays that put the puck in the net. I don't care if we don't get anything in return for Vinny or RJ. I just want them gone so we can start to build around players that actually belong here for the future.
One quick note on forwards: I think the first and fourth lines are untouchable. But you can pretty easily swap Gagner for Read (and mix Porter in when he gets called up), and you can rotate Simmonds/Schenn/Umberger. And even at Center, you can move Schenn, Lecavalier, and Umberger all into that 3C spot without messing too much up. There is a lot of flexibility in the middle lines, and it's Hakstoll's job to find combinations that work.
Another note: one name you will not see in the preview is Scott Laughton. I don't know if I'm only seeing the negatives because I have this idea in my head, but I think he stinks. I have never seem him win a 1-on-1 battle, and I've seen him turn the puck over about a thousand times. If Ghost and Hagg aren't ready for the big leagues, there is no way Laughton belongs on the Flyers this year. (Konecny also looked a lot better than Laughton, but the ability to bury him to keep a year off his entry level contract meant he would have had to be a lock for the top six.)
Defensemen 1: Streit - Schultz
Somehow I have convinced myself that these two make a significantly-above-average pair.
Defensemen 2: Del Zotto - Medvedev
Somehow I have convinced myself that we are solid on defense.
Defensemen 3: God Nevermind - Forget Those Last Two Comments
We are so fucked on defense. Our options here are MacDonald ($5 million until 2020), Luke ($3.6, expires after the season), Gudas and Manning (both under $1, and then RFA after this year). I'd love to see Luke Schenn and Radko Gudas create and old-time hockey "fourth line" kind of D-pair. That would be my favorite defensive pairing since Chris Therien and Dan McGillis accidentally got put on the ice together.
Defenseman 4: MacDonald - Manning
Curve ball! We're going with 8 defensemen, and we're dressing all 8 so nobody has to play too much and we can keep their shitty old legs healthy.
Goalie: Mason - Neuvirth
I don't expect a whole lot of arguments here.
23-man Roster:
Forwards (13): 10, 12, 14, 17, 20, 24, 25, 28, 40, 76, 78, 89, 93
Defensemen (8): 3, 15, 22, 23, 32, 47, 55, 82
Goalies (2): 35, 30
PECO Power Play 1: Giroux - Voracek - Simmonds - White - Streit
The best power play unit in the NHL, quarterbacked by the best power play playmaker in the NHL. There are players that shoot the puck everytime they get it that are also fun to watch on the power play, but (especially in the preseason), Claude is an extension of assistant coach Joe Mullen on the ice. You can see him barking out directions and pointing out instructions. Love you, Claude. As for Ryan White over Schenn, White was impressive when he got minutes last season and Brayden is of more use down here:
PECO Power Play 2: Gagner - Schenn - Couturier - Del Zotto - Medvedev
PECO decided to also sponsor the second unit this year, because we're all hoping for a pretty huge improvement. Sam and Brayden will take on the Giroux/Voracek playmaker roles from the circles, Coots will bang in front of the net, and MDZ/MDV are both offensive enough to justify two defensemen on the power play.
Eastern State Penitentiary Penalty Kill 1: Couturier - Read - Schultz - Schenn
Reader and Coots at the top of the PK unit makes carving out a roster spot for 24 and absolute must. Nick Schultz is the only defensemen that I really think is qualified to kill penalties, but I think Luke's size and ability to learn from Hakstoll (he's shown that already guys, I swear) will be beneficial.
Eastern State Penitentiary Penalty Kill 2: Bellemare - Vandevelde - Medvedev - ????
I hate the "Giroux killing penalties" strategy so goddamn much. He's the best offensive player on the team, and he shouldn't be wasting his energy chasing around penalties or (gulp) risking his body to block shots from the point. PEB and CVV are both solid penalty killers, but I'd also mix Porter in when he gets called up after we trade Vinny and RJ. As for that second defenseman spot, I don't even fucking know. Streit and MDZ both fall under the Giroux logic. MacDonald stinks. Gudas kind of stinks. Manning might stink? Ultimately I think I would put Gudas in there.
Microsoft Windows 3 Tablet 3-on-3 Overtime 1: Giroux - Voracek - Streit
Other Players Good Enough For Overtime: Couturier, B. Schenn, Simmonds, Raffl, Gagner, Bellemare, White, Read, Del Zotto, Medvedev
We have so much garbage on our defensive roster that it seems like we're going to be better off mixing in combinations of three forwards (and one of them, Giroux/Couturier primarily) serving a defensive role. There is a logical rotation here that I am not going to figure out, but basically you need to have at least one of Streit/MDZ/MDV/Giroux/Coots on the ice at all times. But really, it doesn't matter, because we always lose these anyway.
#LGF
And there is a whole bunch of overpaid shit at the NHL level standing in their way.
Here was Volume 1 of the lineup, from about a month ago before we really saw anything:
Boom. And this is my new favorite website https://t.co/IRpfl46UB9 pic.twitter.com/MMVJXueCwj
— Jay (@jaylike) September 3, 2015
And now onto Volume 2, after a lot of time spend watching and even more time spent on Twitter.
Forwards 1: Raffl - Giroux - Voracek
Forwards 4: Vandevelde - Bellemare - White
Nothing has changed on my first and fourth lines, because nothing needs to change. The first is one of the best lines in the NHL, and the fourth is one of the best fourth lines in the league. These two are simple. I wrote about them in my "Six Lines I Want To See" post, and they met or exceeded my expectations. Get well soon, Raf.
Forwards 2: Gagner - Couturier - Simmonds
I like the playmaking ability of Gagner (I hope the nickname Sammer holds), the physicality of Coots, and the gritty goalscoring of Simmer on a line together. And keep this in your back pocket: Sammer is 26, Simmer is 27, and Coots is 22. If the plan is to move the huge contracts of Lecavalier/Umberger/Streit/MacDonald/Schenn, there's going to be a lot of money to go around. If this line clicks and becomes a productive second line, let's lock Sam up long term and let him pick up where his older brother Simon left off. I think we're more likely to see Read or Brayden in that spot, but I'd rather stack two lines than let Coots dwindle as a tweener again.
Forwards 3: Porter - Schenn - Read
This line is clearly a notch below the top two in terms of talent and experience. But you will see all three of these names later on when we get to the special teams lines. For a team that isn't expected to contend this season (we lost twice to the Devils last night), it's not the end of the world to have a line who can defend and also create plays and maybe pot a few goals. However, there is a larger prize that I expect Hextall to force Hakstoll to look for...
Forwards 3: Schenn - Lecavalier - Umberger
There is SO much to be gained this year by having Lecavalier (35 years old) and Umberger (33) look decent enough to trade their huge contracts. Here's how we do that. If another line is nearing the end of a shift, chip the puck on goal and crash the net. Get an offensive zone faceoff. Then in come these three losers with a D-pair that can score, and we try to design some plays that put the puck in the net. I don't care if we don't get anything in return for Vinny or RJ. I just want them gone so we can start to build around players that actually belong here for the future.
One quick note on forwards: I think the first and fourth lines are untouchable. But you can pretty easily swap Gagner for Read (and mix Porter in when he gets called up), and you can rotate Simmonds/Schenn/Umberger. And even at Center, you can move Schenn, Lecavalier, and Umberger all into that 3C spot without messing too much up. There is a lot of flexibility in the middle lines, and it's Hakstoll's job to find combinations that work.
Another note: one name you will not see in the preview is Scott Laughton. I don't know if I'm only seeing the negatives because I have this idea in my head, but I think he stinks. I have never seem him win a 1-on-1 battle, and I've seen him turn the puck over about a thousand times. If Ghost and Hagg aren't ready for the big leagues, there is no way Laughton belongs on the Flyers this year. (Konecny also looked a lot better than Laughton, but the ability to bury him to keep a year off his entry level contract meant he would have had to be a lock for the top six.)
Defensemen 1: Streit - Schultz
Somehow I have convinced myself that these two make a significantly-above-average pair.
Defensemen 2: Del Zotto - Medvedev
Somehow I have convinced myself that we are solid on defense.
Defensemen 3: God Nevermind - Forget Those Last Two Comments
We are so fucked on defense. Our options here are MacDonald ($5 million until 2020), Luke ($3.6, expires after the season), Gudas and Manning (both under $1, and then RFA after this year). I'd love to see Luke Schenn and Radko Gudas create and old-time hockey "fourth line" kind of D-pair. That would be my favorite defensive pairing since Chris Therien and Dan McGillis accidentally got put on the ice together.
Defenseman 4: MacDonald - Manning
Curve ball! We're going with 8 defensemen, and we're dressing all 8 so nobody has to play too much and we can keep their shitty old legs healthy.
Goalie: Mason - Neuvirth
I don't expect a whole lot of arguments here.
23-man Roster:
Forwards (13): 10, 12, 14, 17, 20, 24, 25, 28, 40, 76, 78, 89, 93
Defensemen (8): 3, 15, 22, 23, 32, 47, 55, 82
Goalies (2): 35, 30
PECO Power Play 1: Giroux - Voracek - Simmonds - White - Streit
The best power play unit in the NHL, quarterbacked by the best power play playmaker in the NHL. There are players that shoot the puck everytime they get it that are also fun to watch on the power play, but (especially in the preseason), Claude is an extension of assistant coach Joe Mullen on the ice. You can see him barking out directions and pointing out instructions. Love you, Claude. As for Ryan White over Schenn, White was impressive when he got minutes last season and Brayden is of more use down here:
PECO Power Play 2: Gagner - Schenn - Couturier - Del Zotto - Medvedev
PECO decided to also sponsor the second unit this year, because we're all hoping for a pretty huge improvement. Sam and Brayden will take on the Giroux/Voracek playmaker roles from the circles, Coots will bang in front of the net, and MDZ/MDV are both offensive enough to justify two defensemen on the power play.
Eastern State Penitentiary Penalty Kill 1: Couturier - Read - Schultz - Schenn
Reader and Coots at the top of the PK unit makes carving out a roster spot for 24 and absolute must. Nick Schultz is the only defensemen that I really think is qualified to kill penalties, but I think Luke's size and ability to learn from Hakstoll (he's shown that already guys, I swear) will be beneficial.
Eastern State Penitentiary Penalty Kill 2: Bellemare - Vandevelde - Medvedev - ????
I hate the "Giroux killing penalties" strategy so goddamn much. He's the best offensive player on the team, and he shouldn't be wasting his energy chasing around penalties or (gulp) risking his body to block shots from the point. PEB and CVV are both solid penalty killers, but I'd also mix Porter in when he gets called up after we trade Vinny and RJ. As for that second defenseman spot, I don't even fucking know. Streit and MDZ both fall under the Giroux logic. MacDonald stinks. Gudas kind of stinks. Manning might stink? Ultimately I think I would put Gudas in there.
Microsoft Windows 3 Tablet 3-on-3 Overtime 1: Giroux - Voracek - Streit
Other Players Good Enough For Overtime: Couturier, B. Schenn, Simmonds, Raffl, Gagner, Bellemare, White, Read, Del Zotto, Medvedev
We have so much garbage on our defensive roster that it seems like we're going to be better off mixing in combinations of three forwards (and one of them, Giroux/Couturier primarily) serving a defensive role. There is a logical rotation here that I am not going to figure out, but basically you need to have at least one of Streit/MDZ/MDV/Giroux/Coots on the ice at all times. But really, it doesn't matter, because we always lose these anyway.
#LGF
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