Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Let's Look At Some #FutureFlyers

As we all know, the World Juniors are underway and the Flyers are well-represented on the teams from Canada, Russia, and Sweden. Presently, Sweden and Canada are atop Group A and Russia is atop Group B - and the Flyers' prospects have contributed across the board.

Defensemen Travis Sanheim (Canada) and Ivan Provorov (Russia) have lived up to expectations, showing offensive ability from the blue line. Forward Travis Konecny (Canada) and Goalie Felix Sandstrom (Sweden) have been frustratingly limited. Forwards Oscar Lindblom (Sweden) and Radel Fazleev (Russia) have been productive, though that's far from a surprise for Lindblom's followers.

Couple the guys at the WJC with the prospects in the AHL and the future, as always, is bright for the orange and black.

My #FlyersBoner is raging, and I want to look forward. It might be next year, or maybe the following year or even the year after that, but we will have a new batch of talented players to add to our current core. Let's look ahead at the forwards:

The Giroux Line: Konecny - Giroux - Schenn

I like Giroux and Schenn together, if for no other reason than it elevated Brayden's game. They are solid in the defensive zone and, at times, are explosive in the offensive zone. Konecny will help in both situations, as well as in the neutral zone.

I already have visions of Konecny dancing through the neutral zone, swinging behind the net, and having Giroux and Schenn set up at the faceoff circles wound up for one-timers.

The Coots Line: Read - Couturier - Voracek

I don't have much to add here, other than I like Read with this line more than Simmonds. Obviously, the line has succeeded with Simmer on the wing, but we have to look at the opportunity cost. Sending Read down to a line that stinks is a complete and utter waste of his talent. Simmonds, on the other hand, will fit in nicely with...

The Checking Line: Simmonds - Bellemare - Raffl

Let's throw Pierre Bellemare a bone and give him two forwards that can drive possession in the offensive zone, while also complementing his physical game. This is a big, bruising line that also has quite a bit of offensive ability.

Boom, that's three lines that can all play in both ends, and it leaves us with the following group of guys to fill in for injuries/rest, or to make a fourth line:



Chris Vandevelde - High energy, great penalty killer. There will always be a place for him.
Ryan White - Maybe I was a little overzealous by suggesting he should play on Giroux's line all the time, but I love Ryan White's game.
Scott Laughton - Get ready for five years of "Is this the year for Scott Laughton?" now that Coots is a solid Yes.
RJ Umberger (unless he gets bought out) - But please get him the fuck off the team to make some room.
Oscar Lindblom - He shows flashes of a Raffl-type player, best exemplified by his goal this morning (see below).
Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Radel Fazleev - Philly's other two junior forward prospects
Nick Cousins, Taylor Leier, Petr Straka - Too old for juniors, not quite good enough for the Flyers
Danick Martel, Aaron Palushaj, Tyrell Goulbourne - The next step down in the Phantoms lineup


Ideally, I'd like to ice a fourth line of Laughton centering White and Vandevelde, although I know that would be horrible for Scotty's career development.

But, hear me out. That leaves a top six in Lehigh Valley of Cousins-Straka-Leier (the top three scoring forwards) and Lindblom-Fazleev-Aube-Kubel (their three prospects that are currently not in the USA). Throw in some more seasoning on Martel-Palushaj-Goulbourne and we should be able to create a trio good enough to play 8 minutes per game for the Flyers, while also leaving the Phantoms competitive in the AHL.

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Let's Re-Do The 2010 NHL Draft

I'm bored at work. It's super slow, the office shouldn't even be open, and I need to entertain myself somehow. And since I can't reasonably just spend the next 6 hours in the bathroom, let's rewind tghe calendar and re-do the top ten (or so) pick from an old NHL draft.

Today we are going back to Los Angeles in June 2010. These guys are all now firmly beyond their rookie deals, and there are quite a few impact players. As you might imagine, not all of them were selected in the early first round.

So, here we go. Let's re-order them.

1. Edmonton Oilers

This was such an Oilers pick. It will become more and more apparent as we re-draft everyone that they REALLY fucked this pick up. Again. Just like always. That's going to be the common theme of these re-drafts from the last decade or so. The Oilers just suck.

The Pick: Tyler Seguin. You could make an argument that one other person should go first overall, but you would be wrong.

2. Boston Bruins

The Bruins, of course, turned this pick into Loui Eriksson and some scrubs when they traded Seguin to Dallas. I hope that somebody eventually makes a really good documentary about that whole situation, because Boston could reasonably have a forward core of Seguin-Bergeron-Krejci-Marchand-Lucic-Rinaldo.

The Pick: Vladimir Tarasenko. Christ, that'd be terrifying.

3. Florida Panthers 

I'm not going to call Erik Gudbranson a bust because he's still in the league, but there are at least a dozen players (probably more like two or three dozen) that should probably have gone before him. Luckily for both Panthers fans in the world, they made up for it four years later by drafting Aaron Ekblad, who immediately became their best defenseman.

The Pick: Justin Faulk. There are some forwards that might be arguable here, but the Panthers wanted a defenseman and they picked the wrong one. It wasn't just Florida that fucked up, though - Faulk made it all the way to #37, behind D-men like Dylan McIlrath, Derek Forbort, and Alex Petrovic (no joke, the Panthers had 5 picks where they could have taken Faulk, and they used 2 of them on defensemen). Could you imagine if they were icing a top pair of Ekblad and Faulk? Maybe we would even take them seriously. Be better, Florida.

4. Columbus Blue Jackets

I think I'm going to be an asshole here.

The Pick: Ryan Johansen. I don't think he's the problem, and I think they're going to regret trading him as much as Boston regrets trading Seguin.

5. New York Islanders

Nino Niederreiter wasn't necessarily a bad pick because he contributes today, but let's pick knits.

The Pick: Jeff Skinner. The Youngest All-Star Ever (remember to vote for Shayne or Claude here). The thought of him on this year's team (and the core that's going to be there for the next 3-5 years) legitimately has me shaking in my boots.

6. Tampa Bay Lightning

Brett Connolly was eventually traded for a pair of 2nd Round Picks. You'd like to see a team do better than that with the sixth overall pick. Florida, again showing that they have no business being involved with hockey.

The Pick: Cam Fowler. How about a top-pairing (or at the very least top-four) defenseman?

7. Carolina Hurricanes

Hey guys, sorry we took away your stud rookie and the potential future of your franchise. How can we make it up to you?

The Pick: Nick Bjugstad? Emersen Etem? Brock Nelson? Tyler Toffoli? Christ, that's a pretty significant dropoff.

8. Atlanta Thrashers/Winnipeg Jets

There were three Russians taken in the first round. Tarasenko should have been the first, and he was not. Evgeny Kuznetsov (great read here) should have been the second, and he also was not. The guy that bumped them down was Alexander Burmistrov, who spent some time in the AHL, some time in the KHL, and now finally plays for the team that (kind of) drafted him.

The Pick: Kuznetsov. Be better, teams from the Southeast United States.

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Flyers Awards: A Third Of The Way In

Obviously that would be "roughly a third of the way in" because the Flyguys have played 34 of their 82 games, but the Christmas break seems like the logical first time to stop and check in on the end-of-season team awards that they give out. We'll probably check in again at the All-Star break and then they do the actual awards at the end of the season.

Barry Ashbee Trophy - Outstanding Defenseman
Obviously, the ballot at the end of the season is likely to depend A LOT on the decisions that get made in the next six days. You can make the case, currently, for Michael Del Zotto or Shayne Gostisbehere. Mark Streit is also likely going to throw his name in the ring when he returns from his penis enlargement surgery.

Del Zotto is the most deserving through the first third of the season. He's been the leader in ice time and has been asked to take on a MUCH different role than he probably expected when he signed here. He's the team's number one defenseman, and I think it's safe to say he's far surpassed everyone's expectations of him.

Gostisbehere is  a fan favorite and he's incredible to watch and he breathed life into a dead team and yadda yadda yadda.. this is Del Zotto's award this year and they're going to have to pry it from his cold dead hands if they want to take it away from him.

Pelle Lindbergh Memorial Trophy - Most Improved Player
Del Zotto is also probably the frontrunner for the Lindbergh, but in the interest of diversity let's look at a couple of options. Sean Couturier has established himself as the second line center, but we always kind of knew that's where he was going to end up. Brayden Schenn seems to have solidified himself as a top-six winger, which is a big step forward from him. Gostisbehere, of course, is going to get mentioned.

I think we're going to really have to wait and see what happens at the end of the season, but my picks to keep an eye on would be Del Zotto, Schenn, and Scott Laughton. I think Laughts needs to get put on a line with Matt Read and Sam Gagner to really get some offensive chemistry flowing, and I hope it's only a matter of time until we see that small, speedy trio.

Gene Hart Memorial Award - Most Heart
There are quite a few Heart guys on this Flyers team, as there are every year. Wayne Simmonds probably exemplifies it the most, but there are like ten guys on this team that qualify as Heart guys. Simmer, Giroux, Bellemare, Vandevelde, White, Gudas, and Schultz are all rated 90 or higher in the EA Sports NHL 2016 "heart" skill category.

Ultimately, my heart (pun intended) tells me to give it to Bellemare. PEB has dealt with a lot - especially off the ice - and he's continued to anchor the quietly awesome third/fourth line. He doesn't get paid a lot, he normally gets crushed with defensive zone starts, he has to kill penalties, and he still has managed to become a fan favorite and is someone that the fan base wants to keep around for a long time.. or forever.

He's another guy that I'd like to see get some more talented linemates at even strength. If Gagner is not in the long-term plan. then throw Pebbles out with Laughton and Read to see what kind of damage they can do together.

Yanick Dupre Memorial Class Guy Award - Strong Rapport With The Media
This was kind of a weird award for me to pick, but I LOVE the relationship that Wayne Simmonds and Chris Therien have on the bench in their mid-game interviews.

Bobby Clarke Trophy - Most Valuable Player
As long as Claude Giroux wears an orange sweater with a 28 on the back and a capital C on the front, he will always be this team's most valuable player.

Golden Hockey Stick - Best Czech Player
This one isn't an official Flyers award (I can't really find who awards it, but I assume it has to be the King or Czar of the Czech Republic or whatever). But we have three Czechs on the team, and we need to award one of them with this solid gold piece of wood.

Jake Voracek, Michal Neuvirth, Radko Gudas: who you got?

I Think We Finally Need To Talk About This Mark Streit Situation

The Flyers won last night, and boy was it a hell of a win. They completed their season sweep of the Blues, which is pretty damn impressive considering expectations for both teams this year. There are people on the internet who will write better recaps than I can, but here's the bullets version:

  • Wayne Simmonds scored two goals, and they were both assisted by Jake Voracek and Shayne Gostisbehere
  • Chris Vandevelde scored a shorthanded goal to kickstart the Flyers' comeback (at the time, they were down 3-0 and had their best penalty killer in the box for a garbage hooking penalty). CVV also had the secondary assist on the game-winner
  • Ryan White made a beautiful (/greasy) pass to Evgeny Medvedev to put the Flyers ahead with about three minutes to play, and they held onto that lead until the end
It was a great game to see in person, both for the comeback and the friendly reminder that Philadelphia sports fans have a pretty hostile relationship with referees. Voracek got called for a roughing penalty for a play on which he quite literally had no contact with anybody on the opposing team. Radko Gudas participated in a six-man scrum after St. Louis took a penalty and got sent to the box for doing so. Claude Giroux's hooking penalty was so bad that I shattered the ear drums of everyone around me with boos. The arena music guy played the piano riff that is supposed to lead the fans to chant "Let's Go Flyers!" - it turned into an unmistakable "Ref You Suck!" 

And then, of course, Vandevelde smashed home the rebound from a Pierre-Edouard Bellemare shorthanded breakaway, and the boys were off to the races. 

Everything's happy in Flyertown going into this Christmas vacation before the second West Coast Road Trip of the year. We also get the Travs on national television the day after Christmas. 

But it's finally time to figure out what the hell is going to happen when Mark Streit comes back to the team on the 27th. There are a few options, and none of them are particularly appetizing. 

Option 1: The One That's Easiest, But Nobody Wants To Even Think About

The Lord Voldemort of roster moves, if you will. 

When Streit's penis fell off, you'll recall that the Flyers brought up a rookie offensive-minded defenseman to take his place. That rookie defenseman, of course, is Shayne Gostisbehere. He's lit the league on fire, energized the team, and become a fan favorite in less than 20 games. 

(Fun note: If you take the train home from Flyers games, you've probably seen the guy with a mohawk and matching Flyers logo tattoos on either side of his scalp. That guy has a Flyers Winter Classic Gostisbehere jersey. What the hell else do I even need to say? Everyone loves the kid.)

The easiest move, in terms of roster transactions, is to re-activate Streit and send Ghost down to the Phantoms. The cap situation will be the same as it was before Streit's penis snapped in half, and we will call Ghost up no later than the February 29th trade deadline. 

Honestly, I don't think Philadelphia can survive - as a city, not even just as a hockey team - without Gostisbehere in town for two months. 

Option 2: Try To Move Scott Laughton and Brandon Manning To The Phantoms

If moving the Ghost Bear is really off your list, there are two other names that, when moved down together, would create enough cap room to make everything work. 

I'm fine with moving Scott Laughton down, and I think he'd benefit by playing more minutes per game and having a more offensive role. That part makes sense, and his two-way contract means we can essentially assign him right to Lehigh Valley without risking him going through waivers. Great, I'm all for that (and Laughton is the only guy besides Ghost with that kind of two-way deal).  

But the money doesn't work if it's just Laughton, so you have to move Brandon Manning down too. And Manning is 25 years old, which means he would have to clear waivers. Say what you will about Brandon Manning, but can't you see somebody taking a chance at the 25 year old defenseman at $625k per year? I mean there's no risk, no cost, and no downside to claiming him. 

Why would Ron Hextall risk that? He wouldn't, which is why it won't happen. 

Option 3: Trade Someone

If I'm not already on record, I'd like to officially go on record and say that I think we should keep Mark Streit until next year's deadline. He'll still fetch a first- or second-round pick as a rental for a playoff run, but we'll have his presence in the locker room and on the ice for the following guys: Ghost, Sam Morin, Robert Hagg, Mark Alt, Ivan Provorov, and maybe Travis Sanheim. 

This is a CRITICAL time for these young Flyers defensemen. Do we want them mentored by a guy who's been a pro for twenty years (and a captain, in some capacity, for most of them) or Michael Del Zotto and Radko Gudas?

I know I'm definitely on record as saying I think we should keep Luke Schenn. He's a bruiser, a right-handed shot, a fan favorite (chicks, at least), and it's awesome that he plays on the same team as his younger brother. Plus he has a no trade clause so we might have issues shipping him out of town. I'd love to see him agree to a Nick Schultz kind of contract - even bumping him to 2-3 years at $2.5-3.5 million would be a solid value. I'm sure he'll fetch more on the open market as an unrestricted free agent, but we can't let that impact our judgment for obvious, have-happened-in-the-past, highest-paid-player-in-AHL-history reasons. 

Speaking of Schultz, people rag on him but $2.25 isn't a bad cap hit. He kills penalties and the rest of the team seems to like him. I like him and Streit as a second pairing for this year through to next year's trade deadline. If we can't get anything good for Schultz, then he walks away after 2016-17 and we're done with him. 

It almost kind of goes without saying, but Michael Del Zotto and Radko Gudas are also firmly off the trading block. They're our top pair, and I don't expect that to change when Streit returns. MDZ is a better version of Streit, and Gudas is just better at everything than Schultz. 

That leaves us with one defenseman left to trade who will clear enough cap room to keep Shayne in town: Evgeny Medvedev. But don't worry, I love Meddy and I think his story is one of the best in the NHL this year. So I'm going to take care of him, and send him to a team that will (1) accept him and allow for a smooth transition (2) appreciate his talents and let him be himself (3) let him make a long playoff run and show him the best kind of hockey in the world. Bullets style:
  • Pittsburgh Penguins: Evgeni Malkin is also Russian, but Fuck The Penguins. 
  • Columbus Blue Jackets: Fedor Tyutin and Sergei Bobrovsky are Russian, but I said I wanted Meddy to be on a team that's going to make a run at the Stanley Cup. So the BJ's are out. 
  • Detroit Red Wings: Pavel Datsyuk is an interesting Russian old guy (I bet him and Medvedev could have some good chats about the good old days of the USSR), but the Red Wings currently have the following cap hits on their roster on defense: $6 million, $4.75 million, $4.25 million, $4.25 million, $2.75 million, $2.4 million, $2.1 million. I mean Christ, if they aren't happy with that group of guys then they should fire everyone in their front office. I'm thinking they're probably set. 
  • Montreal Canadiens: The Habs are strangely similar to the Red Wings. They have great team and a pair of solid Russians (including an Alternate captain), but a lot of money already committed to the back end. Barring any injuries, we probably won't see a Medvedev-Andrei Markov-Alexei Emelin trio in the playoffs. 
  • Chicago Blackhawks: Artem Anisimov and Artemi Panarin are both Russian. Then there's the whole Kimmo Timonen situation from last year. I'd love for that situation to happen again (although with a lot less emotion in Philly this time around). Again, the big issue is the salary cap. The Hawks would need a mysterious Patrick Kane wrist injury to create some cap space before the playoffs to create a stacked team for a deep Cup run. Hmmm....
  • Washington Capitals: The best Russian player ever in Alex Ovechkin. The fifth-best (maybe?) Russian in the league in Evgeny Kuznetsov. Other Russians Dmitriy Orlov (?) and Stanislav Galiev (??). First place in the Metro, dominating the East, solid on offense and in goal. They would be able to ice a solid top four defensemen, but Brooks Orpik has a mysterious lower body injury that has his $5.5 million cap hit on the IR for "a long time." The Caps have every pick except their third next draft and every pick the following draft. Would a slick-skating, heavy-shooting defensemen fetch a second round pick? I'd love to see Meddy end up in Washington. I feel dirty trading the kind of player Medvedev is to a team within the division, but it really is the best place for him. 
Option 4: Hire Rocky From The First Fifteen Minutes Of "Rocky"

Before he was a boxer, Rocky Balboa broke kneecaps for the mob. There are a few kneecaps on the Flyers' payroll that need breaking. Vinny Lecavalier, for instance, could make all these issues go away if he agreed to terminate his contract (or if "broken kneecaps" qualifies for Long-Term IR). RJ Umberger could also go for a date with the Italian Stallion, but I imagine he'd just lie about his injury and play through his broken knees. The third member of The Kneecaps Trio is, of course, Five Million Dollar Annual Salary Minor League Hockey Player Andrew MacDonald. 

Do we want to be breaking the legs of our own players? Not really, if only because it will deter people from signing here in the future. 

But we also don't want to be forced into a trade and get less than we might be able to get in two months. 

Buuuuut we alllllso don't want to punish the most exciting player in Philly sports and piss off the fans at the same time. 

So I don't know, Ron. You have a terrible decision to make, and I don't see how you can make it without pissing a big group of people off. I definitely do not envy the position you're in, and I hope to god you follow your track record and make the right move. 

Friday, December 18, 2015

The Sean Couturier Graveyard

Here lie the bones of the men who unsuccessfully attempted to play hockey against Sean Couturier. May they rest in peace for eternity.

October 14 - Chicago Blackhawks
Couturier played most of his time (about 8 of his 11 minutes at even strength) against Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa. He played them even in Corsis, held them off the score sheet, and assisted on Matt Read's goal to ice the game. 

October 21 - Boston Bruins
The Couturier-Read-Simmonds line spent most of their ice time matched up with Boston's Eriksson-Krejci-Pastrnak line. The Coots line out-Corsi'd the Krejci line by 2-4 (depending on the player) and held them off the score sheet at even strength except for a Krejci assist on Jimmy Hayes' goal. 

During the Bruins game, Couturier was cheap-shotted in the head by Noted Scum Of The Earth Zac Rinaldo. He was out with a concussion until November 5th. 

November 5 - Calgary Flames
The Flyers were in Calgary for this game, and thus didn't have the luxury of being able to match the Coots line against the Gaudreau-Bennett-Monahan line. They played pretty evenly against all four Flames lines and all three defensive pairs, and they murdered all of them. This was a big "Welcome Back Coots" game, in which his line finished +15 Corsis at even strength and played with a little big of life, which they'd been lacking in his absence. 

November 7 - Winnipeg Jets
Another road game, another night that Dave Hakstol was unable to get the Coots line matched the way he would have liked. We're adding the Jets' line of Burmistrov-Stafford-Ehlers to the graveyard, because they were shut down and out-Corsi'd, but this is one of the less impressive sets of bones in the boneyard. 

November 12 - Washington Capitals
This was the biggest test (to that point) of the season for the Coots line. They were at home, and Hakstol matched them up with the Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Oshie line for about 8 of their 11 even strength minutes. The Coots line out-Corsi'd the Ovi line by half a dozen, and out-High-Danger-Scoring-Chance'd them 3-2. Oshie scored (it was a greasy rebound goal if I remember correctly), but you can't blame this loss on the second line because they played as well as anyone can against that Caps line. 

November 14 - Carolina Hurricanes
The Couturier line followed up one of their toughest matchups with one of their easiest. At Carolina, the Canes seemed to aim for the matchup of Rask-Terry-Lindholm against Couturier-Read-Simmonds. The boys in orange (and white) out-Corsi'd them by double digits and were each +1 for the night, but failed to generate anything that showed up on the scoreboard. Simmonds was credited with a goal, but it was a Brandon Manning pass to set up a Shayne Gostisbehere shot from the point that ended in a goal (his first NHL point, by the way). The rumblings were in full force by this time - Flyers Facebook was overrun with people criticizing this line, despite the fact that they had shut down everyone in the graveyard through the first month of the season. 

November 17 - Los Angeles Kings
Home game. High-powered line on the other side. Coots line shut them down. The Carter-Toffoli-Lucic line is an intimidating one, and the Coots line played them even in Corsis and didn't even allow a single high-danger scoring chance at even strength. Lucic scored with a minute left in the game when Hakstol put out his "Can't Handle The Puck, Can't Generate Any Kind Of Zone Exits, Hopefully Will Block Some Shots" lineup. But nobody cared, because this was the night the Shayne Gostisbehere era officially began. 

November 25 - New York Islanders
Road game. High-powered line on the other side. Coots line shut them down. This time it was Tavares-Nelson-Okposo, who were out-Corsi'd by double digits by Courutier & Co. The Flyers lost again, but again you cannot blame the shutdown line. They allowed one goal from one of the best lines in the Eastern Conference, but - stop me if you've heard this one before - the Flyers couldn't generate enough goals to win. 

November 28 - New York Rangers
The Flyers entered Madison Square Garden having not won a game there since the team captains were Richards, Carter, Pronger, and Timonen. The whole team, really, dominated the Rangers in this 3-0 shutout. But the Coots line was exceptional: they spent most of their time matched up with the Miller-Fast-Lindberg line, kept them off the scoreboard (obviously), and out-Corsi'd them. Simmonds scored twice and assisted on Couturier's goal. This was also the night that Luke Schenn fought someone and got an instigator penalty that was served by his younger brother, which is a really cool thing to have happened. 

December 1 - Ottawa Senators
The Coots line spent most of the game playing against the Stone-Lazar-Zibanejad line, who they out-Corsi'd by double digits (Couturier finished +12 at even strength). Coots had a goal and two assists, Simmonds had one of each, and Gostisbehere scored again. All was well in Flyerland, as the win brought the team to .500 on the season.

December 8 - New York Islanders
I know the Coots line already killed them, but they spent almost the whole game against that Tavares-Okposo-Nelson line and dominated them again (+9/13/15 Corsis). Unfortunately, Jaro Halak made 43 saves on 46 shots and Steve Mason made 7 saves on 10 shots, and the Flyers lost in a shootout (on that filthy move by Okposo). 

December 17 - Vancouver Canucks
With a new linemate, the expectations for Couturier's offensive game are increased. But playing with Simmonds and Voracek isn't going to diminish his influence on the defensive end. And it should actually lead to him playing even more against the other team's top competition. Against Vancouver, the New Coots Line was matched up against both Sedins (and then just one after Henrik got hurt). The line all finished with a positive Corsi differential against the Sedins, Alex Burrows (their usual third), and Bo Horvat (who filled in for Henrik). But shutting down the top line, they kept the whole Canucks team off the scoresheet. The three of them also combined for a goal, as Jake and Wayne assisted on Sean's goal in the third period. 

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Sean Couturier Is A Second Line Center

I was browsing Twitter this morning and I came across the following exchange between Sean Tierney (who I did not follow until today but is a good follow if you like analytics), Collin Mehalick (A+ follow if you like the Flyers), and Muneeb Alam (A++ follow if you like hockey):


 Clearly, my belief is that Coots belongs in the second line center spot (especially if he's flanked by Wayne Simmonds and Jake Voracek), but I wanted to make my list to see where he falls. I'm going to go throwback Bill Simmons category style with this, and we'll see what happens.

The Unquestionable List Of Top Ten Centers That We Can Knock Out Quickly

In no particular order (wink face):
  • Claude Giroux, Flyers
  • Tyler Seguin, Stars
  • John Tavares, Islanders
  • Evgeni Malkin, Penguins
  • Henrik Zetterberg, Red Wings
  • Steven Stamkos, Lightning
  • Jonathan Toews, Blackhawks
  • Anze Kopitar, Kings
  • Patrice Bergeron, Bruins
  • Sidney Crosby, Penguins
If you have any one of these guys on your team, they are centering the top line. If you have more than one of these guys on your team, then you have an issue with cap allocation and you probably aren't that good. 

Older Guys That You Would Probably Maybe Take Over Couturier

Age, of course, plays a factor in this discussion. Coots just turned 23. He has like ten years of his prime left (I popped a boner typing that sentence). Long term, I'd rather have him than any of these guys. But I'll entertain this list because I think it's going to end up being unequivocal that Sean Couturier is one of the 60 best centers in the NHL:
  • Pavel Datsyuk, Red Wings (37)
  • Joe Thornton, Sharks (36)
  • Henrik Sedin, Canucks (age 35)
  • Tomas Plekanec, Canadiens (33)
  • Patrick Sharp, Stars (33)
  • Mike Cammalleri, Devils (33)
  • Mikko Koivu, Wild (32)
  • Jason Spezza, Stars (32)
  • Alex Steen, Blues (31)
  • David Backes, Blues (31)
  • Frans Nielsen, Islanders (31)
  • Eric Staal, Hurricanes (31)
  • Joe Pavelski, Sharks (31)
  • Jeff Carter, Kings (30)
  • Ryan Getzlaf, Ducks (30)
  • Paul Statsny, Blues (30)
  • Carl Soderberg, Avalanche (30)
  • David Krejci, Bruins (29)
To varying degrees, you could argue that you'd rank these guys over Couturier on a year-by-year basis. I'm fine with including them in this exercise, but if you would rather have Nielsen/Statsny/Soderberg than Couturier, please include your Twitter handle in the comments so I can mock you and then block you. 

Young Guys That Are In The Discussion

On the other end of the spectrum are guys who have the same amount of years left (or more), and that makes the discussion a little gray. Flyers fans - or at least the ones that are not #bad and #dumb - will rave about Coots' upside. I'm sure the fans of these teams would do the same for their guys:
  • Nick Bjugstad, Panthers (23)
  • Mikael Granlund, Wild (23)
  • Jonathan Huberdeau, Panthers (22)
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Oilers (22)
  • Mark Scheifele, Jets (22)
  • Mike Zibanejad, Senators (22)
  • Boone Jenner, Blue Jackets (22)
  • Victor Rask, Hurricanes (22)
  • Vincent Trocheck, Panthers (22)
  • Sean Monahan, Flames (21)
  • Alex Galchenyuk, Canadiens (21)
  • Filip Forsberg, Predators (21)
  • Aleksander Barkov, Panthers (20)
  • Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche (20)
  • Leon Draisaitl, Oilers (20)
  • Max Domi, Coyotes (20)
  • Jack Eichel, Sabres (19)
  • Dylan Larkin, Red Wings (19)
  • Connor McDavid, Oilers (18)
  • Oscar Lindberg, Rangers (24, but in his rookie season)
There are a bunch of no-brainers here. Rookies Domi, Eichel, Larkin, and McDavid look to all be on their way to that first group. Forsberg and MacKinnon are already among the league's best. Zibanejad and Scheifele are especially interesting, because they were taken with the two picks before Couturier. 

(Side note: find me a trio of guys that got drafted back-to-back-to-back with more talent and more confusing names. you can't.)

Guys In Their Early-To-Mid-Twenties
  • Matt Duchene, Avalanche
  • Ryan O'Reilly, Sabres
  • Evgeny Kuznetsov, Capitals
  • Nicklas Backstrom, Capitals
  • Ryan Johansen, Blue Jackets
  • Kyle Turris, Senators
  • Mathieu Perreault, Jets
  • Tyler Toffoli, Kings
  • Derick Brassard, Rangers
  • Bryan Little, Jets
  • Leo Komarov, Maple Leafs
  • David Desharnais, Canadiens
  • Tyler Bozak, Maple Leafs
  • Mike Hoffman, Senators
  • Tyler Johnson, Lightning
  • Artem Anisimov, Blackhawks
  • Brandon Pirri, Panthers
  • Logan Couture, Sharks
  • Martin Hanzal, Coyotes
  • Derek Stepan, Rangers
  • Tyler Ennis, Sabres
Similar to the previous group, there are a few guys here who are almost unquestionably above Coots in anyone's ranking. There are also a lot of guys here who are almost unquestionably below him. 

In Conclusion

On Sean Couturier as a top six center: yes. That's the top ten (10), the guys over 30 (18), guys younger than Coots (20), and guys in their mid-twenties (21). Add it all up and you get 69 players (nice) than could possibly be in the discussion with Couturier. Axe whoever you want to axe, because I'm sure there are at least a couple dozen players that could be chopped off the ballot. Here's how I did that:

The top ten guys, obviously, are above Couturier. 

Factoring in age/the future, Couturier is above just about everybody in the 30+ group. Ignoring age, I'd concede everyone in that group except Sharp, Koivu, Spezza, Nielsen, Statsny, and Soderberg. That's 12 more to bring our running tally to 22 guys above Coots. 

Continuing on in order of descending age, the mid-twenties group are all largely established. I'd be fine putting Coots right smack dab in the middle there, so let's add another 10 to bring our tally to 32. 

The youngsters are tricky, because most will be making about 15% of Couturier's salary next year. I'll concede the four star rookies, MacKinnon, Barkov, Forsberg, Galchenyuk, and Monahan.

Our final tally is 41 centers that we'd rank above Sean Couturier. That leaves a lot of room to concede more names in case I missed any. He's capable of shutting down any line in the league, and he's now paired with a couple of offensive talents - so the sky is the limit. 

On the rest of the league, in bullets form:
  • I would not like to be a Sharks fan because they are a bunch of geezers. 
  • Edmonton and Florida seem to be in great shape for the next few years. 
  • Every team in the league is represented here (70 players divided by 30 teams makes for an average of 2.3 per team), and the most common for this exercise are Detroit (3), Buffalo (3), San Jose (3), Montreal (3), Colorado (3), St. Louis (3), Edmonton (3), NY Rangers (3), and Florida (4). 

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Steven Stamkos Needs A New Home

If you missed all the discussion about Steven Stamkos yesterday, then you probably follow less hockey writers on Twitter than I do. Because I saw the screencap of his Twitter page - his only Like ever was on a story about him going to Toronto - roughly a thousand times yesterday.

The like has since been removed, but the point remains: it's December, and Stammer still hasn't re-upped with the Lightning. They are trying to conserve as much money for the Triplets and Victor Hedman, and it seems like they were hoping for a hometown discount.

Except Steve's hometown is not Tampa Bay. It's Toronto.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs only have about $6 million in cap space, but they have the following contracts coming off the books after this year:

  • Michael Grabner ($3 million)
  • Shawn Matthias ($2.3 million)
  • Nick Spaling ($2.2 million)
  • P.A. Parenteau ($1.5 million)
  • Marc Acobello ($1.1 million)
  • Brad Boyes ($700k)
  • Roman Polak ($2.75 million)
  • James Reimer ($2.3 million)
Obviously, at least a few of those guys will be re-signed. The most notable are Parenteau (8 goals on the season) and Reimer (because Jonathan Bernier is a tire fire). 

That will leave Toronto with right around $25 million committed to five forwards (Nazem Kadri's new contract plus Joffrey Lupul, James van Reimsdyk, Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov, and Daniel Winnick). They also have Nathan Horton's $5.3 million on the books until 2020 or until he retires. 

On defense, the Leafs have the mammoth Dion Phaneuf contract ($7 million per year until 2021) and Jake Gardiner's $4 million returning. The rest of the defense will likely be rookies and young players with contracts around $1 million each. The question on defense is Stephane Robidas, who's signed for $3 million this year and next but has not played yet this year. 

That'll put Toronto somewhere in the $10-15 million dollar range under the cap, depending on how foolish they get filling out their bottom six forwards. They will have the ability to sign Stamkos to one of the five largest contracts in the league ($9 million+), and they've already hinted that their corporate partners will shower him with money too. 

This is obviously a very rough draft of their lineup, but couldn't they go with a top six of Lupul, Stamkos, Parenteau, van Reimsdyk, Kadri, Bozak and at least contend in most games? 

That seems like a really good move for Stamkos and for the Leafs if he (1) doesn't sign an extension with Tampa and require Toronto to trade some assets for him and (2) isn't moved at the deadline. He has a No Movement Clause, but I don't fucking know what it says specifically (so stop asking). 

Arizona Coyotes

Let's move from the destination the League would love to the destination the Commissioner would love. Hockey sticking in the southwest, for some reason, seems to be the goal. A huge step toward solidifying that would be getting one of the five most talented scorers in the league (and one of the two most attractive) to that market. It would also make for more a more notable rivalry between the 'Yotes and the incoming Las Vegas team. 

Only the Jets have more cap room than Arizona's $10.8 million, and that's largely driven by the young nature of the Coyotes' team and the exploitative nature of entry-level contracts. Only cornerstone defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson (age 24, cap hit of $5.5 million) makes more than $4 million. 

To add to that cap room, the following contracts come off the books after this season: forwards Boyd Gordon ($3 million) Steve Downie ($1.75 million), Viktor Tikhonov ($1 million), Kyle Chipchura (875k), and John Scott ($575k) and defenseman Niklas Grossman ($3 million). 

The goal will be to replace as many of those as possible with young, recently-drafted talent, and it should end up leaving Arizona with around $15 million in cap room. 

Wait that's not that much more than Toronto, did I miss something?

Oh yeah, that's right. They have Shane Doan's $5.3 million (after this year) and Chris Pronger's $4.9 million (after next year) coming off as well. 

They have more than enough money to pay Stamkos, and they could, at some point in the next calendar year, ice a power play unit of Stamkos, Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, Ekman-Larsson, and (pick literally any fifth player to round this out). 

In looking at Arizona's cap situation, they've positioned themselves very well to maintain flexibility moving forward. They haven't committed big money to anybody except the stud OEL and goalie Mike Smith (granted, this is a big $5.66 million deal until 2019). If they determine that Stamkos could mesh with their current young core, it might make sense for them to overpay and offer to make him the highest-paid player in the NHL. 

Philadelphia Flyers

We covered what the commissioner wants, what the league wants and, allegedly, what Stamkos himself wants. Now lets' talk about what I want. It's my five-step plan to Flyers dominance:
  1. Vinny Lecavalier either retires or agrees to mutually terminate his contract in exchange for a million Comcast Spectacor stock options. Andrew MacDonald, in a surprising move, opts out of his contract and accepts a position as an assistant coach for the Phantoms at an exactly identical salary. 
  2. Because other teams need to reach the cap floor and would benefit from a veteran presence, Ron Hextall is able to move RJ Umberger next summer for the final year of his contract. 
  3. Andrew MacDonald continues to be a steady presence for the Flyers at the AHL level, preparing the prospects there for life with the big club. 
  4. Brayden and Luke Schenn both agree to Matt Read-esque contracts worth around $3.5 million per year each. 
  5. Sign Stamkos (currently 25 years old) to a deal that pays him $60 million over 6 years, so it will expire when Giroux's does. He will then be 32 and able to collect his big Toronto/end of career contract after winning multiple Cups as a Flyer. 
That gives us Giroux-Stamkos-Couturier down the middle, with Voracek, Schenn, Simmonds, Read, Bellemare, Vandevelde, Laughton and the prospects (notably Konecny) on the wings. 

I just popped a boner thinking about that top six (G-Jake-Brayden, Stamkos-Simmonds-Konecny), and oh yeah we'd also have one of the best shutdown lines in the league too (Coots-Read-Bellemare).

This is, unquestionably, not happening in real life. But I'm finally getting NHL for Christmas, and I'll let you guys know how many Stanley Cups in a row I win.