Summarizing THN's Central Division Preview

(If you missed the summaries for the Atlantic and Pacific Divisions, there are the links. And here's the link to all of the THN previews from Dom Luszczyszyn.)

Let's jump into the "best" division in the league today, though I'm not quite sure it really is the best. Spoiler alert: there are four good teams and one decent team in the Central, but they might cannibalize each other to the point where they all end up below 100 points.

Projected Central Division Standings

1. St. Louis (82.3% chance of making the playoffs)
2. Dallas (78.3%)
3. Chicago (75.0%)
4. Nashville (74.7%)
5. Minnesota (66.5%)
6. Winnipeg (48.0%)
7. Colorado (20.8%)

Those playoff percentages, of course, are all bolstered by the fact that the Central will almost certainly steal the Pacific's Wild Card spot. Even with the news of Johnny Gaudreau's re-signing (not resigning) in Calgary, the safe bet is Minnesota or Chicago will squeeze them out of the playoff picture.

Best Forwards In The Division

1. Tyler Seguin, Dallas (2.04 GSAR/60, 3.4 GSVA)
2. Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis (1.96, 3.2)
3. Patrick Kane, Chicago (1.80, 3.1)
4. Jamie Benn, Dallas (1.74, 3.0)
5. Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg (1.56, 2.6)
6. Filip Forsberg, Nashville (1.52, 2.5)
7. Jason Spezza, Dallas (1.42, 2.1)
8. Mark Scheifele, Winnipeg (1.30, 2.1)
9. James Neal, Nashville (1.29, 2.1)
10. Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado (1.24, 2.1)
11. Zach Parise, Minnesota (1.26, 2.0)
12. Jonathan Toews, Chicago (1.21, 2.0)
13. Jaden Schwartz, St. Louis (1.23, 1.9)
14. Artemi Panarin, Chicago (1.20, 1.9)
15. Patrick Sharp, Dallas (1.18, 1.8)
16. Mathieu Perreault, Winnipeg (1.23, 1.7)
17. Ryan Johansen, Nashville (1.07, 1.7)
18. Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado (1.06, 1.7)
19. Alex Steen, St. Louis (1.03, 1.7)
20. Nino Neiderreiter, Minnesota (1.14, 1.6)
21. Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg (1.10, 1.6)
22. Eric Staal, Minnesota (1.03, 1.6)
23. Matt Duchene, Colorado (0.96, 1.6)
24. Bryan Little, Winnipeg (0.98, 1.5)
25. Paul Stastny, St. Louis (0.92, 1.5)

Let's all take a minute to laugh at those Kane/Toews contracts, especially compared to the deals for Seguin, Tarasenko, Benn, Wheeler, and Forsberg. 

We should also kind of raise our eyebrows at the Jets having five top-line forwards plus a pair of rookies that are already second-line caliber (at least). Considering the late-breaking news of Ondrej Pavelec's placement on waivers yesterday, perhaps we need to bump the Jets up into the middle of the pack in the Central. More on that in two sections.

Best Defensemen In The Division

1. John Klingberg, Dallas (1.34 GSAR/60, 2.7 GSVA)
2. Dustin Byfuglien, Winnipeg (1.06, 2.3)
3. Duncan Keith, Chicago (0.98, 2.1)
4. PK Subban, Nashville (0.94, 2.1)
5. Colton Parayko, St. Louis (1.14, 2.0)
6. Kevin Shattenkirk, St. Louis (1.02, 1.9)
7. Ryan Ellis, Nashville (0.91, 1.6)
8. Alex Pietrangelo, St. Louis (0.68, 1.5)
9. Roman Josi, Nashville (0.67, 1.5)
10. Tyson Barrie, Colorado (0.73, 1.4)

I guess I'd like to know what goes into Game Score that values Klingberg so much more than Pietrangelo and Josi, but this also probably means that Gostisbehere will rank well in the Metro preview so I'll let it slide. 

The blue lines in St. Louis and Nashville are absurd, and the Blues look like they're primed to finally have "the year" (again, for like the sixth season in a row).

Best Goalies In The Division

1. Corey Crawford, Chicago (0.21 GSAR/60, 2.3 GSVA)

That's it. Like the Pacific, the Central has just one goalie that rates in the top ten in the league. The Atlantic has three, which means the Metro has half of the elite-level goalies in the NHL.

Worst Players In The Division, Starting Lineup
Winger: Ryan Reaves, St. Louis (-0.84, -0.6)

Center: Alex Burmistrov, Winnipeg (-0.58, -0.7)

Winger: Cody McLeod, Colorado (-0.71, -0.6)

Defenseman: Fedor Tyutin, Colorado (-0.23, -0.4)

Defenseman: Carl Gunnarsson, St. Louis (-0.24, -0.4)

Goalie: Antti Niemi, Dallas (-0.05, -0.4)

Goalie: Kari Lehtonen, Dallas (-0.09, -0.7)

Goalie: Pekka Rinne, Nashville (-0.01, -0.1)

Goalie: Ondrej Pavelec, Winnipeg (-0.04, -0.3)

I really wanted to try to narrow this worst goalie down to one guy, but there are four really viable candidates here. Let's take a closer look:

• Lehtonen ($5.9 million) and Niemi ($4.5 million) are simultaneously the worst goalie tandem in the league and the highest-paid. That's... not good. 
• Rinne ($7 million) is a shade below replacement level, and he's the second-highest-paid player on the Predators. He also has a no movement clause until after the 2018-19 season, meaning Nashville has to protect him in the upcoming expansion draft. 
• The aforementioned Pavelec ($3.9 million) was waived yesterday, and giving his starts to Someone Other Than Him will catapult the Jets from a bottom-six goaltending team to a middle-of-the-pack goaltending team. 

Here are the full rankings/projections:

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week Six

I'm just now realizing that I skipped last week. It was a hectic week at work, and I'm sorry.

To start, let's rewind to Week Five. Washington killed Stanford. Tennessee squeaked by Georgia. Florida State had their hearts ripped out by North Carolina. Oklahoma beat TCU despite giving up 46 points total (including 22 in the fourth quarter). 

Alright, Florida State's dead. Let's fast forward to Week Six, and we'll start with those dead Native Americans. 

#23 Florida State beat #10 Miami, 20-19

The game itself was awesome - watch the highlights if you missed it - but not even The Block At The Rock (TM) can save Florida State's season. They're 1-2 in the ACC, trailing Clemson (3-0) and Louisville (2-1 with the tiebreaker over the 'Noles). 

Wins over Clemson on Halloween weekend and Florida on Thanksgiving weekend would be nice, but FSU would need too much outside help to win the ACC Atlantic. 

Confidence Level: Bad

#5 Washington beat Oregon, 70-21

I was pretty wasted on Saturday night (and all day, but that's not important) and I thought my brain was broken when I saw this score. This box score reads like one of Washington's games from earlier this season against Idaho or Portland State. 

Quarter-by-quarter the Huskies put up 21-14-21-14. Jake Browning threw six touchdowns. They ran for four more touchdowns, including two from Brown. They totaled 304 passing yards and 378 rushing yards, and they didn't have a single turnover. 

Oregon is pretty shitty, but trouncing a team full of Power Five-caliber players like this is pretty god damn impressive. 

The Huskies have a bye this week, then a game against Oregon State (ESPN's Football Power Index gives Washington a 98.1% chance to win) before a showdown with Utah - likely the only remaining game against a ranked team for them - on Halloween weekend. 

Confidence Level: Good

#9 Tennessee lost to #8 Texas A&M, 45-38 (2OT)

I fucking hate Tennessee, and I wish we had never signed up to root for them this season. Every single game, they do the same exact thing. They fall into a huge hole and just pray they can get out of it. They almost did this weekend, scoring 21 points in the fourth quarter to force overtime, and then Josh Dobbs threw an interception and that was the whole fucking game. 

The Vols are 2-1 in the conference, with the tiebreaker in hand over Georgia (2-1) and Florida (2-2). They will probably lose to Alabama next weekend, but then they have a manageable five games to end the season that should leave them with six or seven wins in the SEC. Florida and Georgia have decidedly more difficult schedules (including playing each other), so we should be Gucci. 

Confidence Level: Okay

#20 Oklahoma beat Texas, 45-40

Is giving up 40 points to an unranked team, including 27 in the second half, good? Probably not.  But that's Big 12 football, baby. A win is a win, I guess. 

There are three games left in the season that are going to determine who win the conference:

• 11/12 - Baylor at Oklahoma
• 11/19 - Oklahoma at West Virginia
• 12/3 - Baylor at West Virginia

WVU having home field advantage certainly helps, and Baylor having to go on the road isn't going to make it easy. But all three teams control their own fate for the next two months, and it's going to be up to Baker Mayfield and Samaje Perine to not fuck anything up until that round robin starts. 

Summarizing THN's Pacific Division Preview

Yesterday, I broke down THN's season projections for the Atlantic Divison (this info all comes from THN's season previews by Dom Luszczyszyn.. The Atlantic wasn't really surprising at the top, as the three most valuable players turned out to be a perennial Selke candidate, a perennial Norris candidate, and a perennial Vezina candidate.

The real fun stuff, though, comes in the form of learning who is in the tier below the Elite Headline Makers. Guys like Nikita Kucherov, Brendan Gallagher, and Tomas Tatar should end up being almost as valuable (if not more valuable) to their teams as the big guns like Bergeron, Marchand, and Stamkos.

So, this morning, let's head from one ocean-themed conference to another and tackle the Pacific Division. As before, I'm going to include all of the first-line forwards, number one defensemen, and top-ten goalies in my rankings.

Projected Pacific Division Standings

1. San Jose (93.9% chance of making the playoffs)
2. Los Angeles (92.5%)
3. Anaheim (62.0%)
4. Calgary (47.1%)
5. Edmonton (36.4%)
6. Arizona (21.0%)
7. Vancouver (7.0%)

The first thing that jumped out at me here was the weakness of the divison. The Atlantic features four teams with a playoff chance above 78%. The Pacific features just two, and Anaheim is quite a bit back in the race. Part of that is the sheer strength of the Central Division (with which these Pacific teams complete for Wild Card playoff spots), but still. This is the worst division in the league by far. 

The Sharks and Kings are good, though. So they have that going for them, and we'll get a great rivalry matchup in the second round of the playoffs. 

Best Forwards In The Division

1. Joe Pavelski, San Jose (1.92 GSAR/60, 3.2 GSVA)
2. Tyler Toffoli, Los Angeles (1.84, 2.8)
3. Connor McDavid, Edmonton (1.71, 2.8)
4. Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles (1.57, 2.8)
5. Joe Thornton, San Jose (1.67, 2.6)
6. Jeff Carter, Los Angeles (1.38, 2.3)
7. Tomas Hertl, San Jose (1.52, 2.1)
8. Corey Perry, Anaheim (1.31, 2.1)
9. Ryan Getzlaf, Anaheim (1.29, 2.1)
10. Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary (1.28, 2.1)
11. Logan Couture, San Jose (1.25, 1.9)
12. Daniel Sedin, Vancouver (1.21, 1.9)
13. Milan Lucic, Edmonton (1.08, 1.6)
14. Jordan Eberle, Edmonton (1.05, 1.6)
15. Loui Eriksson, Vancouver (0.99, 1.6)
16. Tanner Pearson, Los Angeles (1.03, 1.5) 
17. Mikael Backlund, Calgary (1.02, 1.5)

Two things.

First, yes, you did not see a single Coyote on that list because they have no forwards that grade as first-line players. That will almost certainly change in the coming years with Domi, Duclair, Strome, Crause, and Rieder. 

Second, I was surprised to only see one Sedin brother. Here's some trivia to impress your friends with: Daniel is better than Henrik (by a pretty significant margin, too). 

Third, here's another point to back up "The Atlantic is better than The Pacific" - the Atlantic division had 26 top-line forwards, which is three whole extra teams worth of top-line players more than this Pacific Division. 

Best Defensemen In The Division

1. Brent Burns, San Jose (1.52 GSAR/60, 3.3 GSVA)
2. Mark Giordano, Calgary (1.21, 2.5)
3. Drew Doubty, Los Angeles (1.00, 2.4)
4. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Arizona (1.05, 2.2)
5. Jake Muzzin, Los Angeles (1.03, 2.0)
6. Dougie Hamilton, Calgary (0.96, 1.8)
7. Marc-Edouard Vlasic, San Jose (0.92, 1.8)
8. Hampus Lindholm, Anaheim (0.89, 1.7)
9. Alex Goligoski (0.67, 1.4)
10. TJ Brodie (0.62, 1.3)

The Oilers and Canucks both lack a true number one defenseman, which could be part of the reason why there's like a quarter-of-a-percent chance that they both make the playoffs. 

Burns is the most productive defenseman in the division, and he's going to get paid like it next summer. 

Best Goalies In The Division

1. Brian Elliot, Calgary (0.16 GSAR/60, 1.8 GSVA)

That's the whole list. Cam Talbot is just outside the top ten, with a 0.16 GSAR/60 and 1.7 GSVA. This could also be part of the reason why the Pacific is in fourth place of the four NHL divisions. 

Worst Players In The Division, Starting Lineup

Winger: Matt Hendricks, Oilers (-0.56, -0.5)
Center: Markus Granlund, Vancouver (-0.52, -0.6)
Winger: Derek Dorsett, Vancouver (-0.45, -0.5)

Defenseman: Derek Engelland, Calgary (-0.35, -0.4)
Defenseman: Darnell Nurse, Edmonton (-0.42, -0.7)

Goalie: Mike Smith, Arizona (-0.05, -0.5)

Fun fact: Mike Smith's cap hit is almost $5.7 million, and he's signed through 2018-19 (with a No Movement Clause all the way through).

(Yes, I did just copy and paste that Jimmy Howard fun fact from yesterday and change a few details.)

Here are the full rankings/projections:

Summarizing THN's Atlantic Division Preview

I like to admit when I don't know as much as I should. Like, for example, one of the questions I ask most frequently is "What is going on with the Phillies?" - I ask one of my friends that on like a monthly basis, because I am interested in how the team is developing but I don't care enough to actually follow them closely.

So, instead of pretending I know anything about Cesar Hernandez, I just ask. And then he tells me, and then I know.

When it comes to hockey, I admittedly do not know as much about non-Metropolitan teams as I should. The Atlantic, for example, is a division that I should probably be way more educated about that I am.

Thankfully, The Hockey News (I think it might just be Dom Luszczyszyn) is rolling out their season previews for all 30 NHL teams, so we can learn new things to make us sound smarter. And as we all know, sounding smart is the only thing that matters on Hockey Twitter.

Projected Atlantic Division Standings

1. Tampa Bay (85.7% chance of making the playoffs)
2. Boston (80.2%)
3. Florida (79.1%)
4. Montreal (78.5%)
5. Ottawa (36.4%)
6. Detroit (31.5%)
7. Toronto (16.2%)
8. Buffalo (3.6%)

Boston being that high might be a surprise, but they have a stellar group of top-six forwards and their struggles on defense might be over-exaggerated by people around the league. I would have expected Florida to be above Boston, but it appears the only difference between the teams in this model is Tuukka Rask being better than Roberto Luongo. 

The playoff race is the Atlantic is a four-horse race, because Ottawa and Detroit both have to deal with the two-headed monster of A Lot Of Crap At The End Of The Roster and Questions About Their Goaltending. 

Toronto and Buffalo are going to stink, and they aren't going to care. Load up those prospect pipelines, baby!

I'm going to list the top-ranked players by position, and I'm cutting that ranking off at guys considered either first-line forwards, number one defensemen, or top-ten goalies. THN ranks everyone in the league by Game Score Above Replacement Per 60 Minutes and Game Score Value Added. 

Best Forwards In The Division

1. Patrice Bergeron, Boston (2.05 GSAR/60, 3.4 GSVA)
2. Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay (1.73, 2.7)
3. Brad Marchand, Boston (1.71, 2.6)
4. Max Pacioretty, Montreal (1.66, 2.6)
5. Brendan Gallagher, Montreal (1.72, 2.5)
6. Tomas Tatar, Detroit (1.58, 2.1)
7. Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay (1.24, 2.0)
8. Mark Stone, Ottawa (1.22, 2.0)
9. David Pastrnak, Boston (1.42, 1.9)
10. Alexander Radulov, Montreal (1.30, 1.9)
11. Mike Hoffman, Ottawa (1.24, 1.9)
12. Reilly Smith, Florida (1.19, 1.9)
13. Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay (1.18, 1.8)
14. Vincent Trochek, Florida (1.16, 1.8)
15. Jussi Jokinen, Florida (1.19, 1.7)
16. Ondrej Palat, Tampa Bay (1.18, 1.7)
17. Dylan Larkin, Detroit (1.12, 1.7)
18. Kyle Okposo, Buffalo (1.11, 1.7)
19. Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida (1.08, 1.7)
20. Aleksandr Barkov, Florida (1.03, 1.7)
21. Alex Galchenyuk, Montreal (1.03, 1.6)
22. Gustav Nyquist, Detroit (1.12, 1.5)
23. William Nylander, Toronto (1.05, 1.5)
24. Frans Nielsen, Detroit (0.98, 1.5)
25. Nazem Kadri, Toronto (0.94, 1.5)
26. David Krejci, Boston (0.90, 1.5)

I guess I should mention that I don't really understand what those two GS stats stand for or mean, but obviously more of both is good. Patrice Bergeron is the best in the divison in both categories. It shouldn't be a surprise to anybody, but he's the most valuable forward in the division. 

Best Defensemen In The Division

1. Erik Karlsson, Ottawa (1.39 GSAR/60, 3.3 GSAV)
2. Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay (1.30, 2.7)
3. Torey Krug, Boston (1.14, 2.2)
4. Anton Stralman, Tampa Bay (0.80, 1.6)
5. Mike Green, Detroit (0.84, 1.5)
6. Aaron Ekblad, Florida (0.78, 1.5)
7. Keith Yandle, Florida (0.69 (nice), 1.3)

Here's another one that shouldn't be a surprise to anybody. Karlsson is the best defenseman in the division, and probably the whole league - though Hedman is closing the gap on both counts. 

You'll notice that the Montreal Canadiens don't have any players on this list, and that's because they don't have any defensemen that rank as Number One Defensemen according to THN's rankings. Hmmm. The Leafs and Sabres, likewise, do not have a number one blueliner, but those two franchises also did not recently trade away a guy who projects at 0.94 GSAR/60 and 2.1 GSVA. 

Best Goalies In The Division

1. Carey Price, Montreal (0.29 GSAR/60, 3.3 GSAV)
2. Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay (0.20, 2.3)
3. Tuuka Rask, Boston (0.18, 2.1)

This should be even less of a surprise than Bergeron and Karlsson. Carey Price dominated the league before he got hurt last season, and Montreal's personnel moves this summer seem to indicate that they plan to protect him even more than they used to. 

Worst Players In The Division, Starting Lineup

Winger: Drew Miller, Detroit (-0.77, -0.8)

Center: Zac Rinaldo, Boston (-0.93, -0.6)

Winger: Nicolas Deslauriers, Boston (-0.86, -0.7)

Defenseman: Mark Borowiecki, Ottawa (-0.50, -0.7)
Defenseman: Josh Gorges, Buffalo (-0.55, -0.8)

Goalie: Jimmy Howard, Detroit (-0.06, -0.3)

Fun fact: Jimmy Howard's cap hit is almost $5.3 million, and he's signed through 2018-19 (with a No Movement Clause through next season).

Here are the full rankings/projections:

I Made A New TV Show Using The Ringer's Rules

This morning, the staff of The Ringer released their newest "kill some time at work and learn some new things about the people you follow on Twitter" project. They based it on the salaries of the highest-paid TV actors in the country, and they also factored in the wide variety of TV genres and settings that are currently popular.

Here are the general rules:

• You have a budget of $250
• With that budget, you have to pick one setting, one time period, and at least three actors

That's basically the whole thing. Here are some ideas that I have. Please feel free to hire me to produce/direct any of these, if you have that ability. 

I Can't Think Of A Name For This Show But I Know It's A Winner

Kiefer Sutherland ($30) + Julie Bowen ($25) + Kit Harrington ($50) + Tom Selleck ($20)

Present Day ($5) + Washington DC ($25)

Total Budget: $155

It stars Kiefer Sutherland, so obviously this is a show about terrorism. He's the good guy, in the classic Jack Bauer/Tom Kirkman fashion, and Julie Bowen is the wife that he actually allows to get close (unlike basically everyone in 24). 

Julie Bowen works some kind of "mom job" (like at a store or something) and that's how she meets Kit Harrington. He's a frequent customer, and I'm going to cross some boundaries here and say that there is some sexual tension between Jon Snow and Virginia Venit. Nothing will ever come of it, we convince ourselves, but you never know. 

Kiefer Sutherland's team at work has been working on a non-Muslim terror threat (way different than 24, I know). They aren't sure when or where or how the strike will come (those details come out as the show develops), but they know the man in charge of it all is Tom Selleck. They allude to an agent who has been infiltrating the terror group, and then the show cuts to Kit Harrington's face. It'll be reminiscent of this scene from Game Of Thrones:

In both shows, we assume Kit is the guy they're referring to in the preceding scene. In GOT, that may or may not end up being true. In this show, we are correct. Kit is a counter-terror agent who is simultaneously infiltrating Tom Selleck's terror group and crushing on Kiefer Sutherland's wife (though he doesn't know she's his boss' wife). 

The show progresses from there. At some points, we think Kit is going to flip for the bad guys. At some points, we think we're going to get a Harrington/Bowen sex scene. At some point, we think Kiefer knows that the young agent who works under him may also be working under his wife (if you know what I mean). 

At the end of the day, in the final scenes of the show, Kit has a choice between Sutherland and Selleck. He chooses Sutherland, kills Selleck, and saves the day. He finally meets Julie Bowen and realizes who she is. Then he kills himself because of all the mental hoops he's had to jump through over the course of the season. 

That got dark, maybe we need to spend the extra $12 to have this classified as gritty?

Harry Potter Spinoff

Harry Potter Universe ($75) + "Gritty" ($12)

Total Cast Spend: $177.50

Total Budget: $264.50

(Quick note: I don't know if the HP Universe gets me all of the magic/dragons/castles/settings already, or if I was supposed to pay extra for that. I chose to not pay extra for that, because an ensemble cast of this caliber was already a little over budget. If we go way over budget, that's someone else's problem.)

We're in the Harry Potter Universe, several decades before the events of the JK Rowling books. We're following Dumbledore (Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, $50) and Grindelwald (Jonah Hill, just kidding, Daniel Craig, $25). They begin the series as friends, traveling the world and reaching magic heights that have never been reached before. 

I splurged on the "gritty" tag because this is a dark show. They are, essentially, planning to enslave everyone who is less powerful than they are. JK Rowling has alluded to Dumbledore being almost in love with Grindelwald, and essentially getting used for his magical ability. It's a more complex show than just "wizards and dragons" and I want it to feature the harsh reality of relationships. In that regard, it'll be a lot like Game of Thrones. 

There will, at some point, be a powerful scene (I'll leave out some specifics in the interest of spoilers) that features Aberforth and Arianna Dumbledore (Aaron Paul, $22.50, and Kristen Bell, $12.50) in vulnerable, emotional positions. 

Depending on how long we're planning on continuing this series, a variety of other characters could come into play. The only one I can afford to include here is Lena Headey ($50) as a young Professor McGonagall. She's talented, she's strong, and it will be super fucking weird to see Jaime and Cersei Lannister in such different roles. 

I'd Like To Get Stone And Watch This Live-Action Spongebob Remake

Spongebob Universe ($50)

Total Cast Spend: $205

Total Budget: $255

Once again, I'm going to ignore time period and setting so we can maximize the quality of our cast. This is as far from gritty as you can be, because it's Spongebob Goddamn Squarepants. Let's hop right into the cast:

• Spongebob - Rob Lowe, $17.50 (he's playing Chris Traeger from Parks & Rec)
• Patrick - Matt LeBlanc, $20
• Gary The Snail - A Nonfictional Domestic Corgi, $30
• Squidward - Andre Braugher, $10
• Mr. Krabs - Billy Bob Thornton, $25
• Sandy Cheeks - Lizzy Caplan, $10
• Plankton - Peter Dinklage (no offense), $50
• Mrs. Puff - Sofia Vergara, $25
• The Flying Dutchman - Anthony Hopkins, $17.50

I don't think any casting director ever has cast a better trio than Chris Traeger/Joey Tribbiani/Anthony Hopkins as Spongebob/Patrick/Flying Dutchman. I'm going to pat myself on the back for that one for a really long time. 

We already have a million episodes of Spongebob plots to use, we just have to tweak them so that real people can act them out. We can also tie in references to Parks, Hannibal, Friends, Bad Santa, Game Of Thrones, and the thousand other shows/movies that this cast has made. 

I'm going to write these new scripts myself because I have negative five dollars to pay anyone to write them for me, but I'm going to try to channel my inner Archer/Arrested Development and write these scripts as cleverly as I can (I'm not actually going to write them). I imagine this show will be watched by about 12 people, and they will all love it. 

The Flyers Just Cut Sam Morin and Taylor Leier

Per GM Ron Hextall, the #Flyers have assigned Taylor Leier and Sam Morin to the @LVPhantoms.

— Philadelphia Flyers (@NHLFlyers) October 5, 2016

I guess it wasn't so much "cut" as it was "reassigned to the minor league affiliate," but efficient headlines are important in sports journalism.

To the surprise of nobody (I hope), Leier and Morin were returned to Lehigh Valley. Leier looked like a solid, reliable call-up option if the need arises this season. Morin looked like he's made huge strides in his development, but needs to cook for a little while longer. We'll see them both in orange and black in the future, without a doubt.

The interesting part about this round of cuts, though, is it leaves us with a very manageable group of guys left in Flyers camp. The roster now stands at 26, and Hextall has said they will be down to 23 before the season starts.

So let's take a look at who might be heading out of Philadelphia to get down to that magic number.

Not A Chance In Hell These Guys Aren't On The Team

Forwards (10): Nick Cousins, Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux, Boyd Gordon, Michael Raffl, Matt Read, Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds, Jake Voracek, Dale Weise

That's three (or maybe two) guys on the top line, two (or maybe three) guys on the second line, and the third- and fourth-line centers (Cousins and Gordon). Depending on how everything shakes out, Raffl/Read/Weise will likely be wingers somewhere in the bottom three lines.

Defensemen (5): Michael Del Zotto, Shayne Gostisbehere, Radko Gudas, Nick Schultz, Mark Streit

I don't think anyone will have any debate about these top five.

Goalies (2): Steve Mason, Michal Neuvirth

Duh.

That's the easy part. Now, let's look at who's competing for the other five spots on the roster. It'll likely end up being three forwards and two defensemen, but that could obviously change.

Forwards

Pierre-Edouard Bellemare
Travis Konecny
Scott Laughton
Roman Lyubimov
Chris Vandevelde
Jordan Weal

This whole section starts and ends with Konecny. If he makes it, he's playing on Giroux or Couturier's wing, and Raffl/Read will be thrown into the bottom six mix. That takes a spot away from one of these other guys, and it cascades from there.

But, for a team that certainly had offensive struggles last year, I don't think they can afford to leave Konecny off the team. He's more talented offensively than the other guys competing for that last top-six spot, and those guys are more talented than the people they'd be replacing in the bottom six. Everyone wins.

Well, everyone except Chris Vandevelde and Jordan Weal, who are going to get cut. The only exception might be if Hextall decides to send Laughton to Lehigh Valley. He's waiver-exempt, which means he can't be claimed by another team when he's sent down. Weal, though he's far from a franchise cornerstone, would likely be claimed by someone else and the Flyers would lose him for nothing. For that reason, I could see him being the odd man out (aka the healthy scratch press box guy).

In: Bellemare, Konecny, Lyubimov, Weal

Out: Laughton, Vandevelde

Defensemen

Andrew MacDonald
Brandon Manning
Ivan Provorov

I'll be brief.

If Ivan Provorov gets sent back to the WHL, it is going to be bad.

For expansion draft purposes, either Manning has to play 14 games or MacDonald has to play 40 games. I would rather have Manning rotate in every so often, either to give Streit/Schultz a break or to cover for a short-term injury. Playing MacDonald for half of the season would be detrimental to the team.

In: Provorov, Manning

Out: MacDonald

Andrew MacDonald Needs To Be Fired Into Outer Space

I can't let this go on any longer. I've tried to convince myself that everything is going to be okay when Ron Hextall sends The Kids back to juniors or the AHL and keeps Andrew MacDonald in Philadelphia. I threw out every excuse in the book.

"He's not terrible, he's just overpaid."

"He looked good in training camp, maybe he worked on his game this summer."

"He's got decent stick skills and he can skate alright."

"No, I definitely for sure don't want to claw my eyes out every time I watch him attempt to defend."

Last night was the first chance I got to actually see the boys in orange and black play in a game setting in person. And, because Radko Gudas got himself tossed like one minute into the game, we got to see MacDonald paired with just about every defenseman that dressed last night.

How'd it go?

one game sample etc, but wow. lmao.
"MDZ has a 71% CF%, Ghost 69%, Provorov 68%, Gudas 64%, Morin 56%......yet AMac had a 36% CF%"

— Viktor Allvin (@ViktorAllvin) October 4, 2016

Now, for my next example, I'm going to just Chart Vomit everything from Hockeyviz (you should be following Micah, consuming all of his content, and if I eventually make any money I promise I will buy him an Outback Steakhouse gift card).

This picture is really, truly worth a thousand words. The whole Flyers team (basically) was positive in even strength score adjusted shot attempts. The rest of the defensemen finished the game at 55%, 60%, 69% (nice), 69% (nice), and 69% (nice). MacDonald was only slightly above 35%. 

He routinely got caved in, and he dragged quite literally every single one of his partners down with him. 

Quick side note from MacDonald: the Couturier/Read/Voracek line (and the Coots/Read duo specifically) finished below the rest of the team in shot attempt differential. But, as usual, there is an easy explanation. 

It's the same explanation as every game ever for Couturier: he spent the bulk of his minutes against the other team's best line. In this case, it was Nash/Stepan/Vesey (RIP), and they held them scoreless at even strength (Vesey's goal was on the power play). 

Now back to the reason we've all gathered here today. Andrew MacDonald played 19 minutes last night against a team that was icing a bottom six and four defensemen that shouldn't sniff the NHL, and did not finish with a positive shot attempt differential against ANYONE. Not one single player. 

I know Corsi isn't everything, and you have to watch the game so you have some context to judge the numbers. And the "eye test" last night was MacDonald allowing controlled entries and letting the Rangers set up in their offensive zone. He was the only Flyers blueliner to give up a goal without also being on the ice for a Flyers goal. His best play of the night was a sliding-on-the-seat-of-his-pants breakdancing move where he poked the puck away from whoever this was:

However you gotta get the job done, AMac! pic.twitter.com/a2rLSQ23D4

— Sons of Penn (@SonsofPenn) October 4, 2016

 That's not good hockey.

And so, here we are. The Flyers next preseason game isn't until Thursday (in New York, and then they play Saturday in Boston). There is expected to be another round of cuts before then.

Quick look at how I see PHI's camp roster now, more or less.
Green: Locks
Blue: Probably locks
Purple: Still battling
Red: Likely to AHL pic.twitter.com/TuId1HcjC4

— Charlie O'Connor (@BSH_Charlie) October 3, 2016

Let's stay focused on the defense for the purpose of this post. The four guys in green are going to make the team. Nick Schultz is going to make the team. Brandon Manning will be the 7th defenseman and they'll mix him in for his dozen or so games to allow him to be exposed for the expansion draft.

That leaves one final spot on the blueline, for either MacDonald, Provorov, or Morin. I thought Morin was the best player on the ice in the first period last night, but he really fell off a cliff from there and solidified that he needs more time with the Phantoms.

If you watched last night, or any other night, or looked at any low-level or high-level stats, I can't fathom how you can possibly have MacDonald slotted higher than Provorov on your organizational depth chart. Keeping Manning in the 7th spot for this exercise, you have two options:

• Del Zotto-Gudas, Gostisbehere-MacDonald, Streit-Schultz
• Del Zotto-Gostisbehere, Provorov-Gudas, Streit-Schultz 

That second combination also gives you the option to split up MDZ/Ghost with Streit/Schultz if the need arises (if Streit is bad, basically). Manning can rotate in every so often to ensure he can serve the role of Exposed Defenseman (usually MacDonald's job, am I right?), and there is a mixture of skill and stay-at-home in the final year before Streit-Schultz are replaced by some combination of kids.

That second lineup also gives you the chance to send MacDonald through waivers, which is a quick rabbit hole that I'm going to fall down. Here are some teams that have the requisite cap space (per General Fanager) and also a desperate enough need for blueline help (per Dom I-Can't-Spell-His-Last-Name) that they might take on someone who stinks as bad as MacDonald for the next four years:

• Hurricanes: $16.5 million in cap space, a bunch of young/cheap defensemen that could benefit from the tutelage of an experienced vet like MacDonald, similar to how he had a positive impact on the Phantoms last season (ignore that he played for an AHL team and got paid $5 million last season)
• Devils: $11.3 million in cap space, are already paying $5 million for multiple years to Replacement-Level Defenseman Andy Greene, do not have a defenseman that projects in the top half of the NHL since they traded away Adam Larsson, are already going to ice the worst blueline in the league, midas whale go for it and try to have the worst group of defensemen in history
• Panthers: $9.2 million in cap space, are probably actually okay on overpaid defensemen since they're paying Keith Yandle and Jason Demers a combined $10.85 million through 2023 and 2021 respectively. They also have $7.5 million committed to Aaron Ekblad until 2025 (not an overpay, just mentioning the financial obligation)
• Sabres: $8.5 million in cap space, are going to ice (by Dom's estimation) the second-worst defense behind the Devils, including the worst number one defenseman in the league (Rasmus Ristolainen) and the worst overall defenseman in the league (Josh Gorges)(yes, he's even worse than Dan Girardi). I've been mostly sarcastic in this section but I think the Sabres would actually benefit from claiming MacDonald and working them into their blueline rotation

Maybe Hextall has to grease the palm of the Sabres a little bit, with a prospect or a pick. Maybe Tim Murray realizes what's happening in Philly with Provorov (and the "next year" guys like Morin and Sanheim and Myers) and sees a way to pry a long-term asset away from Hextall while also making his miserable blueline a bit stronger in the process. Maybe he realizes he can buy MacDonald out next summer (or the following one) with a cap penalty of less than $2 million when MacDonald's gone. 

Here's my dream Hexy press conference: "Andrew MacDonald has been traded to Buffalo with a second round pick in exchange for a conditional pick that ranges from fourth to sixth depending on MacDonald's games played and the team's success. No salary will be retained."

Now it's time for me to go have some alone time in the bathroom and think about that fantasy.