Week 7 College Football Preview: The Noon Games

(If you missed the Louisville-Florida State preview, it's here - but I like FSU -7.)

Here are the rest of the notable 12:00 games:

West Virginia @ Baylor (-21.5)
WVU has been in a freefall, losing by 20 at Oklahoma and by 7 at home to Oklahoma State. Baylor scores 60+ points per game. I like Baylor, I wish it was inside three touchdowns, but I don't want to tease with this because it's either going to be a 30 point blowout or a single-digit nailbiter. It's tough to argue with Baylor's offense though, so I like the Bears -21.5.

Purdue @ Wisconsin (-23.5)
When you Google both of these teams, the first ESPN result is the link to the basketball page. That's a fun fact, and here's another: except for their 3 point loss at Michigan State, Purdue lost has lost their games against Big 5 opponents by 27 (Virginia Tech) and 28 (Minnesota) - and both of those games were at home. I'm almost wondering if the Boilermakers are a frisky road team because they have a home crowd that doesn't care? Couple that with Wisconsin's 1-1 B1G record (lost by 4 at home to Iowa and won by 2 at Nebraska), and I'm in on Purdue +23.5.

Ole Miss (-11) @ Memphis
Memphis is 5-0 against a bunch of crap teams. Ole Miss is 5-1 (2-1 in the SEC). In Ole Miss' only loss, Florida held them to 1 passing touchdown, 259 passing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, and just 69 rushing yards (nice). For the season, Chad Kelly averages 310.3 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game (with almost 1 interception per game). Their ground game averages 188.3 yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game. The issue with trying to analyze Ole Miss is they combined for 201 points (25 offensive touchdowns) against UT-Martin, Fresno State, and New Mexico State. Memphis probably won't win, but I'd like to mix this into the teaser bag to get it under a touchdown.

Iowa (-2) @ Northwestern
The friskiest team in the Big Ten getting points at home? I'm in!

Texas Tech (-32.5) @ Kansas
Kansas is another team that has the basketball page show up before the football page, and wow is it easy to see why. 0-5. Lost to South Dakota State. Lost by 32 to Memphis at home. Lost by 13 to Rutgers and by 25 to Iowa State. Coming off a 59 point loss at home to Baylor in which they only managed to score a touchdown on their first drive and go scoreless on their next thirteen. Texas Tech has been held under 50 twice this year (both times they scored 35 points) - at Arkansas, which they won, and at home to Baylor, which they lost because Baylor is Baylor. The Red Raiders beat Iowa State 66-31 last week, so transitive property tells us they should beat Kansas by 50. One of our first rules was Thirty Points Is A Lot, but I'm in on Texas Tech -32.5.

College Football Week 5 Betting Guide

West Virginia @ Oklahoma, 12pm
WVU has beaten up on Georgia Southern, Liberty, and Maryland by a combined score of 130-23. They held their only Big Five opponent to 6 points. They haven't played a road game yet, but the 'Eers went 4-1 on the road last year.

Oklahoma destroyed Akron 41-3 in their opener, then beat Tennessee 31-24 on the road, then beat Tulsa 52-38 at home.

This is a tricky game to predict, and Vegas has been holding around Oklahoma -7. I think that is too many points, so I'm on WVU +7 before it changes to +6.5

Iowa @ Wisconsin, 12pm
Wisconsin lost to Alabama in week one, and it wasn't pretty. Since then, they are 3-0 and have outscored their opponents 114-3. That was a classic B1G Cupcake Run against Miami (OH), Troy, and Hawaii, but still.... 114-3.

Likewise, Iowa has played a classic B1G Cupcake Schedule so far, beating Illinois State and North Texas at home, beating Pittsburgh at home without their only elite player, and getting a huge win on the road against The Second Worst Team In The Big 12. They are being portrayed as a stout run defense, but Wisconsin is going to run all over them.

I have no idea how this line is only 7 points. Give me Wisconsin -7 in this situation every day for the rest of the football season.

(Note: Iowa State is the second-worst team in the Big 12, but Kansas is the worst and ISU is favored by 17 against the Jayhawks this week.)

Alabama @ Georgia, 3:30
This is right from Clay Travis' preview this week: "Here's the deal, these two teams are almost completely equal except Greyson Lambert is playing much better than either of Alabama's quarterbacks. So how do you not take the better quarterback playing at home when the teams are otherwise equal? (And when Georgia can actually make a field goal). The Dawgs win, sending Alabama and Auburn to 0-2 starts in the SEC for the first time in the history of the SEC."

Clay's been hot recently, so let's go Dawgs - UGA -1.5.

Ohio State @ Indiana, 3:30
I wish I had the balls to take Indiana +21.5 here because I don't think OSU will be able to cover that, but I don't.

Ole Miss @ Florida, 7pm
I guess I don't understand how the Rebels, who beat Alabama on the road, are only favored by 7.5 against Florida. The Gators have played one possession games against Tennessee, Kentucky (!), and East Carolina (!!). Maybe throw Ole Miss into a teaser to get it closer to a pickem, but even at the regular spread I still like Ole Miss -7.5.

Notre Dame @ Clemson, 8pm
We have a very staunch "No Betting On Notre Dame" policy, but they're actually getting two points at Clemson. The Irish blew the doors off of Texas, beat Virginia (on the road) and Georgia Tech by a touchdown each, and smacked UMass last week.

Clemson dominated Wofford and App State (snore), and beat Louisville by 3 points on the road.

DeShone Kizer got his tune-up game last week against woeful UMass, and I think ND is just flat out better than Clemson. But we don't bet on them here. I'm just looking out for you guys.