Can We Bring JVR Back To Philly?

I mean the short answer is probably definitely not. But I saw this tweet from PSG today:

Good question https://t.co/0lvHsindAG

— Platinum Seat Ghosts (@3rdPeriodSuits) June 8, 2016

..and my brain immediately framed it in a Flyers context.

The Milan Lucic Trade

Before last summer's entry draft, the Bruins moved one of their franchise cornerstones to LA in their biggest move of a busy summer.

Bruins received: pick #13, goalie Martin Jones, defenseman Colin Miller

Los Angeles received: forward Milan Lucic (Boston retained 45% of his salary)

I suppose the logic made sense on both sides. The Kings were set in goal and didn't really need an above-average backup. They also didn't really need Miller for their supposed Cup run, so they turned a prospect and a pick into one of the best power forwards in the league. Visions of a big, mean team probably danced in Kings GM Dean Lombardi's head (though, in doing some internet comment section research, lots of fans weren't exactly thrilled).

On the Bruins side of things, they turned the final year of Lucic's 3 year/$18 million deal into a backup goalie and two prospects. It would have made more sense if they committed to the rebuild and moved some more older players (and hadn't given away Dougie Hamilton and Tyler Seguin in the previous year), but the logic makes sense. They could have ended up with a Rask-Jones tandem in goal, a blueline prospect that was borderline NHL-ready, and a trio of first round picks.

Well, they traded Jones three days later (for the 29th or 30th pick in this year's draft), used their three picks on players who have made approximately zero noise in the past year, and Miller isn't good enough to rescue their back end from their $13.7 million commitment to Chara, Seidenberg, McQuaid, and Miller (plus Torey Krug's pending new deal). The Bruins missed the playoffs and the window is just open enough for them to not completely rebuild.

James van Riemsdyk

There are three main differences between Lucic in 2015 and JVR in 2016:

• Lucic was a bit more expensive on a per-year basis, with a $6 million cap hit compared to van Riemsdyk's $4.25 million
• Lucic's contract expired the summer after the trade, whereas JVR is locked into his deal for two more years
• Lucic played 81 games in 2014-15. JVR played just 40 last year before he fractured his foot

So, in Typical Leafs Fan fashion, Leafs Fans are going to overvalue JVR and expect a larger return than the Lucic deal for a player who:

• is the same age
• is coming off a season where he fractured his foot and missed half of his games
• generated similar or worse numbers in the following categories: Corsi, Fenwick, Expected Goals For, Expected Goals Against, Actual Goals For, Actual Goals Against, Goals For Per 60, Goals Against Per 60
• has played half the playoff games and has generated a third of the playoff points
• will not have any of his salary retained because the Toronto front office is against that

Final Verdict

I have changed my mind. I don't want JVR, because his perceived value in Toronto seems to be WAY higher than his actual value anywhere (Philadelphia included, and you know how much we love Former Flyers and Power Forwards). 

Leafs Fans Have Some Interesting Trade Deadline Predictions

Let’s play a game. Try and predict a trade that will occur in the next 6 days. The teams and all the pieces involved. Use #PSGPredict.

— Platinum Seat Ghosts (@3rdPeriodSuits) February 23, 2016

I think this Platinum Seat Ghosts is a Toronto Maple Leafs fan, and his name is not in any way a Shayne Gostisbehere reference. That's a little weird because the word "Ghost" in any sort of context should be referencing the Flyers' rookie blueliner. But, for whatever reason, he's using the word to mean something other than what we care about. Fine, live your own life I guess.

The responses to his tweet this morning are an interesting cross-section of Hockey Twitter. Obviously, the vast majority of people who follow PSG (and would be responding to this tweet) are crazy hockey fans. They come from different cities and root for different teams, but all of Hockey Twitter shares a love for crazy, senseless, boiling hot takes.

@3rdPeriodSuits #PSGPredict Kevin Shattenkirk will become a Leaf

— Michael Do Couto (@TheRealDoCouto) February 23, 2016

Twitter in a nutshell. No reasoning behind it, no logical way for it to happen, nothing the Leafs can offer St. Louis to make it worth their time. But let's bring the best potential defenseman on the market  (who is actually probably off the market at this point) to my home team and fucking make a run!

God I'm going to hate the Leafs so much in two years when they're good.

@3rdPeriodSuits Parenteau for bickell, scuderi, dano, 1st 2016, 2nd 2017. Then Chi has cap space for ladd or staal #PSGPredict

— Dave bice (@davebice_leafs) February 23, 2016

I guess the logic behind this kind of makes sense. Chicago could add Parenteau to their middle six, then add Ladd/Staal to their top line, and be a prohibitive favorite to win the Stanley Cup this year.

But come the fuck on, Leafs fans, they aren't going to give up their best prospect and two solid picks for a crappy winger on a one year contract. This trade would also leave the Hawks without anything left to trade to actually acquire Ladd or Staal.

@3rdPeriodSuits Parenteau to NYI for the 2016 2nd #PSGPredict

— Max Homie (@50_MissionCap) February 23, 2016

This is a much more reasonable return for Parenteau. Good job, Max.

@3rdPeriodSuits PA Parenteau to New Jersey for Mackenzie Blackwood. #PSGPredict

— Tyrannosaurus Ricks (@RickC1983) February 23, 2016

God damnit! Does this person think that New Jersey would send their goalie of the future back to Toronto - who is now managed by the man who ditched NJ - for a rental in a year where they have no realistic shot of making any noise in the playoffs?

I mean, yeah, obviously it'd be nice to turn an aging player on an expiring deal into a goalie prospect to replace the hot mess they currently have in Toronto, but this guy might as well have suggested a Parenteau for Lundqvist swap.

@3rdperiodsuits JvR to the Hawks for Bickell, Dano, and a 1st. #PSGPredict

— Damon (@Baseball_Damon) February 23, 2016

The trend I'm seeing out of Maple Leafs Twitter is they're supremely overvaluing P.A. Parenteau. He's 32. He's never scored more than 20 goals in a season. He's been declining since 2011.

JVR is a much more interesting candidate. He's just 26, he's under contract until 2018, and he'd be a 30 goal/60 point guy if he could stay healthy. I just don't think he's a good fit for the Hawks because his cap hit is upwards of $4 million. He's probably more valuable to the Leafs if they keep him for their rebuild, to be honest.

The one big intangible with JVR is the fact that he's a #FormerFlyer. That's something that can't be measured on the ice during the actual game, but it carries a lot of weight with the Hockey Gods, and it means he's probably going to eventually win a Cup.

@3rdPeriodSuits Oilers fail to get anything resembling decent value for their rental players after waiting until last minute #PSGPredict

— Lawrence Alexander (@LD10) February 23, 2016

Yes please, I would like to see this happen.

#PSGPredict Kadri to St.Louis in return for Parayko, 1st round pick 2016 and 3rd round pick 2017

— David Papais (@DPapais) February 23, 2016

Elliotte Friedman mentioned the idea of Kadri to St. Louis yesterday in his Reddit AMA. Kadri is 25, and a restricted free agent this summer. He figures to get an offer sheet that's in the range of compensation which awards a 1st and 3rd round pick. So, at a minimum, he should net a first and a third at the deadline.

Throwing Parayko into the mix is interesting - he was drafted in the third round and has developed almost as well as a third-round defenseman can (see #53 in Philadelphia). I'd guess there's no chance that the Blues give up both picks plus Parayko - but what if the offer goes to Parayko and the 3rd rounder?

Kadri for Fabbri and a 2nd #PSGPredict

— Chief (@_McGill_76) February 23, 2016

 This is along the same lines, and if St. Louis wants to really challenge Chicago this year, I think they should consider upgrading Fabbri. It'll hurt long term when Fabbri is a stud on a cheap deal in Toronto, but there's no doubt Kadri could slide nicely into their top six.

The Leafs don't make another trade #PSGPredict

— Jesse Turner (@Jessturr) February 23, 2016

This is an option that most Leafs fans are not considering.

@3rdPeriodSuits Ladd to NYR for Mcilrath, Buchnevich and 2016 1st. #PSGPredict

— David Maurstad (@davedrivesbus) February 23, 2016

I will bet you one million dollars that David is a Rangers fan.

(Checks his timeline)

Well consider my mind blown, because it looks like he's a Jets fan. What? How? Why would he be content with a late first round pick, a thug defenseman, and a Russian prospect whose KHL team has expressed desires to extend his contract and keep him there? Ladd is the best rental chip available on the market, and they'd be getting like a 50% chance at nothing for him.

Reminder: hockey fans everywhere are the worst. I love reading through the CrossingBroad comment section for all of the hot takes, but sometimes I question if people are actually as dumb as they seem online.

This blog alleviated that a bit for me, because Leafs fans might even be dumber than Flyers fans.

-

(Update: PSG tweeted a link to this blog, so this will likely be our most-viewed post in months - please let me know how you initially found it, if you're reading this. I feel like I should just clarify one point:

This wasn't a Leafs fan hit piece, just more of an observation that every fan base has the "Trade Giroux" or "Trade Subban" or "PA Parenteau Is Worth A First And Dano" or "Crosby Is A Good Captain" group. Not everyone can be the type of fan that focuses on possession and exit/entry metrics and things that we generally associate with "smart" hockey fans. 

The question in the original tweet was posed from a Leafs blog, and obviously most of the responses were Leafs-centric. It was nice to see that it's not just Flyers fans that may not have realistic hopes or opinions on the internet - but it's also not just Leafs fans, either. That's the takeaway, I guess. We're all kind of dumb. 

But I still hate you, though, Leafs fans. And I hope Stamkos signs with Buffalo this summer.)

These NHL Prospects Will Be The Reward For This Year's Sadness

Sadness, in an NHL context, is when you miss the playoffs and also miss out on a top draft pick. My Twitter friend Micah takes a variety of statistical figures into account to generate his daily Sadness Index projection. Here's where that stands as of today:

Furthermore, those attuned to Sadness should Continue to be Sad. pic.twitter.com/YnbNxqrwi9

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) February 17, 2016

Obviously, 16 teams make the playoffs. Micah's cutoff for missing out on "a top draft pick" is anyone lower than fifth. So,  there are going to end up being 9 teams that are #sad at the end of the year. Yet, somehow, 11 teams have a better-than-fifty-percent chance of ending up in one of those spots. Move past that.

Puljujarvi and Laine at the World Junior Championships

The top five picks, in some order, will be Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, Jesse Puljuvarvi, Matthew Tkachuk, and one of defensemen Olli Juolevi or Jakob Chychrun.

Let's take a look at the guys that are going to likely fall just outside the top five, because it seems like there's a pretty good chance the Flyers will end up drafting one of them. I use Eliteprospects for stuff like this because they compile several different scouting sites in one place.

Canadian defenseman Jakob Chychrun

Juolevi or Chychrun, whichever is not drafted fifth

Both of these defensemen project to be solid NHL talents, and no fan base would be upset to land either of them. They may not be a franchise-changer like Matthews, but they should both be blueline contributors for the better part of a decade.

Maple Leafs prospect William Nylander, who is substantially more attractive than his younger brother

Michael McLeod, Center
Alex Nylander, Winger

Currently teammates in Mississauga, they have been tearing up the OHL. McLeod is described as a "power center", which is an asset for any NHL team to be able to ice on any of its four lines.

Nylander is probably best known for being the younger brother of Toronto Maple Leafs prospect William Nylander, but the younger Nylander lit up the World Juniors for 9 points in 7 games.

Future Philadelphia Flyer Julien Gauthier

Pierre-Luc Dubois, Winger
Tyson Jost, Center/Winger
Julien Gauthier, Winger

Let me throw some more Canadians at you, because there are obviously a lot of them available because hockey. These three (plus McLeod) are Canada's four best forward prospects. Eliteprospects has quite a bit of info for each, and it's easiest to summarize it like this:

• Dubois has an unreal hockey sense and he's the prototypical "better than his physical attributes" kind of hockey player
• Jost is an incredible playmaker and I keep seeing the word "crafty" used to describe him. I see shades of Travis Konecny in his game
• Gauthier is a power forward, but he also has a surprising amount of skill with the puck on his stick. He might end up being the best forward in this draft behind Matthews and The Fins

Future Philadelphia Flyer Max Jones

Clayton Keller, Center

Max Jones, Winger

Kieffer Bellows, Center/Winger

Luke Kunin, Center

Alex DeBrincat, Center

There is a good chance that seven American forwards get drafted in the first round this summer. The two big names (Matthews and Tkachuk) should go within the first four picks, and it would be a mild upset if any of these five made it to the second round. 

Jones and Bellows are both described as "power forwards" with puck skills that match their projected draft positions. They both also play with pretty high-quality teammates; Jones is a London Knight with Tkachuk, Juolevi, Coyotes prospect Christian Dvorak, Maple Leafs prospect Mitch Marner, Bellows is a BU Terrier along with Ahti Oksanen and Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, who played for Finland and Sweden respectively in the World Juniors.

Keller is, almost across the board, projected higher than Jones or Bellows. But I can't find any information on him. He's a center, he's in the USHL development league, he's going to BU next season with Bellows, and he's on the smaller side at 5'10/170. Is he a playmaker or a scorer or an energy guy? I have no fucking clue. About the best I can find is this SB Nation story that talks about his "keen eye, soft hands, and creative mindset." He sounds kind of like Christian Grey, to be quite honest. 

Kunin, who plays at the University of Wisconsin, is decidedly a step below Keller/Jones/Bellows. But anyone who is a first-round talent should eventually turn into a top-nine forward unless something goes wrong. Luke (who apparently also goes by Lane, idk) has unquestionable skills in the offensive zone, but will have to develop the other 2/3 of his game to be a real elite player. 

I hate DeBrincat. He cheapshotted Travis Konecny in the World Juniors and he looked like crap every other time I watched him play. He has 179 points in 113 games between last season and this season, so obviously he's not bad, but he's just such a little shit that I can't see him being a player I ever actively root for. To be honest, I hope he falls to New Jersey (they're currently in spot 18, he's projected in the 20-24 range), He'd be a great Devil in that he's a son of a bitch and I hate him. 

Future Flyers defensemen Jake Bean and Travis Sanheim

Mikhail Sergachyov, Defenseman

Charlie McAvoy, Defenseman

Dante Fabbro, Defenseman
Jake Bean, Defenseman

How about we add some more blueliners into our pool? This group is one Russian, one American, and two Canadians. Serge plays in the OHL, Bean plays in the WHL, and McAvoy and Fabbro both play in college in the US. Suck on that, Canada.

Sergachyov is someone I haven't read much about, but he's a Russian and their style of play generates high-risk, high-event defensemen. His physical talent and his head seem to be able to justify his risk-taking, but I keep thinking about Evgeny Medvedev's defensive zone turnovers and I worry about how his game would translate to the NHL.

McAvoy currently plays for Boston University, and Fabbro will join him on Commonwealth Ave next year. As is the case with most defensive prospects, they are vaguely described as good in their own zone with offensive upside. That doesn't mean a whole lot, but playing together in one of the country's premier college programs should certainly benefit them both.

Jake Bean probably doesn't quite belong in this post. He's probably going to get drafted by a team that made the playoffs, which should suit him that much better. I see his name quite a bit because he plays with Flyers prospects Travis Sanheim and Radel Fazleev, and by all accounts Bean is just a shade below Sanheim for the Calgary Hitmen. Someone like Dubois or Gauthier or Jones would make a lot more sense for the Flyers, but I wouldn't be mad at all if Hextall decided to throw Beaner into the prospect pool of defensemen in Philly.

Steven Stamkos Needs A New Home

If you missed all the discussion about Steven Stamkos yesterday, then you probably follow less hockey writers on Twitter than I do. Because I saw the screencap of his Twitter page - his only Like ever was on a story about him going to Toronto - roughly a thousand times yesterday.

The like has since been removed, but the point remains: it's December, and Stammer still hasn't re-upped with the Lightning. They are trying to conserve as much money for the Triplets and Victor Hedman, and it seems like they were hoping for a hometown discount.

Except Steve's hometown is not Tampa Bay. It's Toronto.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs only have about $6 million in cap space, but they have the following contracts coming off the books after this year:

• Michael Grabner ($3 million)
• Shawn Matthias ($2.3 million)
• Nick Spaling ($2.2 million)
• P.A. Parenteau ($1.5 million)
• Marc Acobello ($1.1 million)
• Brad Boyes ($700k)
• Roman Polak ($2.75 million)
• James Reimer ($2.3 million)

Obviously, at least a few of those guys will be re-signed. The most notable are Parenteau (8 goals on the season) and Reimer (because Jonathan Bernier is a tire fire). 

That will leave Toronto with right around $25 million committed to five forwards (Nazem Kadri's new contract plus Joffrey Lupul, James van Reimsdyk, Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov, and Daniel Winnick). They also have Nathan Horton's $5.3 million on the books until 2020 or until he retires. 

On defense, the Leafs have the mammoth Dion Phaneuf contract ($7 million per year until 2021) and Jake Gardiner's $4 million returning. The rest of the defense will likely be rookies and young players with contracts around $1 million each. The question on defense is Stephane Robidas, who's signed for $3 million this year and next but has not played yet this year. 

That'll put Toronto somewhere in the $10-15 million dollar range under the cap, depending on how foolish they get filling out their bottom six forwards. They will have the ability to sign Stamkos to one of the five largest contracts in the league ($9 million+), and they've already hinted that their corporate partners will shower him with money too. 

This is obviously a very rough draft of their lineup, but couldn't they go with a top six of Lupul, Stamkos, Parenteau, van Reimsdyk, Kadri, Bozak and at least contend in most games? 

That seems like a really good move for Stamkos and for the Leafs if he (1) doesn't sign an extension with Tampa and require Toronto to trade some assets for him and (2) isn't moved at the deadline. He has a No Movement Clause, but I don't fucking know what it says specifically (so stop asking). 

Arizona Coyotes

Let's move from the destination the League would love to the destination the Commissioner would love. Hockey sticking in the southwest, for some reason, seems to be the goal. A huge step toward solidifying that would be getting one of the five most talented scorers in the league (and one of the two most attractive) to that market. It would also make for more a more notable rivalry between the 'Yotes and the incoming Las Vegas team. 

Only the Jets have more cap room than Arizona's $10.8 million, and that's largely driven by the young nature of the Coyotes' team and the exploitative nature of entry-level contracts. Only cornerstone defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson (age 24, cap hit of $5.5 million) makes more than $4 million. 

To add to that cap room, the following contracts come off the books after this season: forwards Boyd Gordon ($3 million) Steve Downie ($1.75 million), Viktor Tikhonov ($1 million), Kyle Chipchura (875k), and John Scott ($575k) and defenseman Niklas Grossman ($3 million). 

The goal will be to replace as many of those as possible with young, recently-drafted talent, and it should end up leaving Arizona with around $15 million in cap room. 

Wait that's not that much more than Toronto, did I miss something?

Oh yeah, that's right. They have Shane Doan's $5.3 million (after this year) and Chris Pronger's $4.9 million (after next year) coming off as well. 

They have more than enough money to pay Stamkos, and they could, at some point in the next calendar year, ice a power play unit of Stamkos, Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, Ekman-Larsson, and (pick literally any fifth player to round this out). 

In looking at Arizona's cap situation, they've positioned themselves very well to maintain flexibility moving forward. They haven't committed big money to anybody except the stud OEL and goalie Mike Smith (granted, this is a big $5.66 million deal until 2019). If they determine that Stamkos could mesh with their current young core, it might make sense for them to overpay and offer to make him the highest-paid player in the NHL. 

Philadelphia Flyers

We covered what the commissioner wants, what the league wants and, allegedly, what Stamkos himself wants. Now lets' talk about what I want. It's my five-step plan to Flyers dominance:

1. Vinny Lecavalier either retires or agrees to mutually terminate his contract in exchange for a million Comcast Spectacor stock options. Andrew MacDonald, in a surprising move, opts out of his contract and accepts a position as an assistant coach for the Phantoms at an exactly identical salary. 
2. Because other teams need to reach the cap floor and would benefit from a veteran presence, Ron Hextall is able to move RJ Umberger next summer for the final year of his contract. 
3. Andrew MacDonald continues to be a steady presence for the Flyers at the AHL level, preparing the prospects there for life with the big club. 
4. Brayden and Luke Schenn both agree to Matt Read-esque contracts worth around $3.5 million per year each. 
5. Sign Stamkos (currently 25 years old) to a deal that pays him $60 million over 6 years, so it will expire when Giroux's does. He will then be 32 and able to collect his big Toronto/end of career contract after winning multiple Cups as a Flyer. 

That gives us Giroux-Stamkos-Couturier down the middle, with Voracek, Schenn, Simmonds, Read, Bellemare, Vandevelde, Laughton and the prospects (notably Konecny) on the wings. 

I just popped a boner thinking about that top six (G-Jake-Brayden, Stamkos-Simmonds-Konecny), and oh yeah we'd also have one of the best shutdown lines in the league too (Coots-Read-Bellemare).

This is, unquestionably, not happening in real life. But I'm finally getting NHL for Christmas, and I'll let you guys know how many Stanley Cups in a row I win.