The Flyers Just Cut Sam Morin and Taylor Leier

Per GM Ron Hextall, the #Flyers have assigned Taylor Leier and Sam Morin to the @LVPhantoms.

— Philadelphia Flyers (@NHLFlyers) October 5, 2016

I guess it wasn't so much "cut" as it was "reassigned to the minor league affiliate," but efficient headlines are important in sports journalism.

To the surprise of nobody (I hope), Leier and Morin were returned to Lehigh Valley. Leier looked like a solid, reliable call-up option if the need arises this season. Morin looked like he's made huge strides in his development, but needs to cook for a little while longer. We'll see them both in orange and black in the future, without a doubt.

The interesting part about this round of cuts, though, is it leaves us with a very manageable group of guys left in Flyers camp. The roster now stands at 26, and Hextall has said they will be down to 23 before the season starts.

So let's take a look at who might be heading out of Philadelphia to get down to that magic number.

Not A Chance In Hell These Guys Aren't On The Team

Forwards (10): Nick Cousins, Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux, Boyd Gordon, Michael Raffl, Matt Read, Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds, Jake Voracek, Dale Weise

That's three (or maybe two) guys on the top line, two (or maybe three) guys on the second line, and the third- and fourth-line centers (Cousins and Gordon). Depending on how everything shakes out, Raffl/Read/Weise will likely be wingers somewhere in the bottom three lines.

Defensemen (5): Michael Del Zotto, Shayne Gostisbehere, Radko Gudas, Nick Schultz, Mark Streit

I don't think anyone will have any debate about these top five.

Goalies (2): Steve Mason, Michal Neuvirth

Duh.

That's the easy part. Now, let's look at who's competing for the other five spots on the roster. It'll likely end up being three forwards and two defensemen, but that could obviously change.

Forwards

Pierre-Edouard Bellemare
Travis Konecny
Scott Laughton
Roman Lyubimov
Chris Vandevelde
Jordan Weal

This whole section starts and ends with Konecny. If he makes it, he's playing on Giroux or Couturier's wing, and Raffl/Read will be thrown into the bottom six mix. That takes a spot away from one of these other guys, and it cascades from there.

But, for a team that certainly had offensive struggles last year, I don't think they can afford to leave Konecny off the team. He's more talented offensively than the other guys competing for that last top-six spot, and those guys are more talented than the people they'd be replacing in the bottom six. Everyone wins.

Well, everyone except Chris Vandevelde and Jordan Weal, who are going to get cut. The only exception might be if Hextall decides to send Laughton to Lehigh Valley. He's waiver-exempt, which means he can't be claimed by another team when he's sent down. Weal, though he's far from a franchise cornerstone, would likely be claimed by someone else and the Flyers would lose him for nothing. For that reason, I could see him being the odd man out (aka the healthy scratch press box guy).

In: Bellemare, Konecny, Lyubimov, Weal

Out: Laughton, Vandevelde

Defensemen

Andrew MacDonald
Brandon Manning
Ivan Provorov

I'll be brief.

If Ivan Provorov gets sent back to the WHL, it is going to be bad.

For expansion draft purposes, either Manning has to play 14 games or MacDonald has to play 40 games. I would rather have Manning rotate in every so often, either to give Streit/Schultz a break or to cover for a short-term injury. Playing MacDonald for half of the season would be detrimental to the team.

In: Provorov, Manning

Out: MacDonald

Andrew MacDonald Needs To Be Fired Into Outer Space

I can't let this go on any longer. I've tried to convince myself that everything is going to be okay when Ron Hextall sends The Kids back to juniors or the AHL and keeps Andrew MacDonald in Philadelphia. I threw out every excuse in the book.

"He's not terrible, he's just overpaid."

"He looked good in training camp, maybe he worked on his game this summer."

"He's got decent stick skills and he can skate alright."

"No, I definitely for sure don't want to claw my eyes out every time I watch him attempt to defend."

Last night was the first chance I got to actually see the boys in orange and black play in a game setting in person. And, because Radko Gudas got himself tossed like one minute into the game, we got to see MacDonald paired with just about every defenseman that dressed last night.

How'd it go?

one game sample etc, but wow. lmao.
"MDZ has a 71% CF%, Ghost 69%, Provorov 68%, Gudas 64%, Morin 56%......yet AMac had a 36% CF%"

— Viktor Allvin (@ViktorAllvin) October 4, 2016

Now, for my next example, I'm going to just Chart Vomit everything from Hockeyviz (you should be following Micah, consuming all of his content, and if I eventually make any money I promise I will buy him an Outback Steakhouse gift card).

This picture is really, truly worth a thousand words. The whole Flyers team (basically) was positive in even strength score adjusted shot attempts. The rest of the defensemen finished the game at 55%, 60%, 69% (nice), 69% (nice), and 69% (nice). MacDonald was only slightly above 35%. 

He routinely got caved in, and he dragged quite literally every single one of his partners down with him. 

Quick side note from MacDonald: the Couturier/Read/Voracek line (and the Coots/Read duo specifically) finished below the rest of the team in shot attempt differential. But, as usual, there is an easy explanation. 

It's the same explanation as every game ever for Couturier: he spent the bulk of his minutes against the other team's best line. In this case, it was Nash/Stepan/Vesey (RIP), and they held them scoreless at even strength (Vesey's goal was on the power play). 

Now back to the reason we've all gathered here today. Andrew MacDonald played 19 minutes last night against a team that was icing a bottom six and four defensemen that shouldn't sniff the NHL, and did not finish with a positive shot attempt differential against ANYONE. Not one single player. 

I know Corsi isn't everything, and you have to watch the game so you have some context to judge the numbers. And the "eye test" last night was MacDonald allowing controlled entries and letting the Rangers set up in their offensive zone. He was the only Flyers blueliner to give up a goal without also being on the ice for a Flyers goal. His best play of the night was a sliding-on-the-seat-of-his-pants breakdancing move where he poked the puck away from whoever this was:

However you gotta get the job done, AMac! pic.twitter.com/a2rLSQ23D4

— Sons of Penn (@SonsofPenn) October 4, 2016

 That's not good hockey.

And so, here we are. The Flyers next preseason game isn't until Thursday (in New York, and then they play Saturday in Boston). There is expected to be another round of cuts before then.

Quick look at how I see PHI's camp roster now, more or less.
Green: Locks
Blue: Probably locks
Purple: Still battling
Red: Likely to AHL pic.twitter.com/TuId1HcjC4

— Charlie O'Connor (@BSH_Charlie) October 3, 2016

Let's stay focused on the defense for the purpose of this post. The four guys in green are going to make the team. Nick Schultz is going to make the team. Brandon Manning will be the 7th defenseman and they'll mix him in for his dozen or so games to allow him to be exposed for the expansion draft.

That leaves one final spot on the blueline, for either MacDonald, Provorov, or Morin. I thought Morin was the best player on the ice in the first period last night, but he really fell off a cliff from there and solidified that he needs more time with the Phantoms.

If you watched last night, or any other night, or looked at any low-level or high-level stats, I can't fathom how you can possibly have MacDonald slotted higher than Provorov on your organizational depth chart. Keeping Manning in the 7th spot for this exercise, you have two options:

• Del Zotto-Gudas, Gostisbehere-MacDonald, Streit-Schultz
• Del Zotto-Gostisbehere, Provorov-Gudas, Streit-Schultz 

That second combination also gives you the option to split up MDZ/Ghost with Streit/Schultz if the need arises (if Streit is bad, basically). Manning can rotate in every so often to ensure he can serve the role of Exposed Defenseman (usually MacDonald's job, am I right?), and there is a mixture of skill and stay-at-home in the final year before Streit-Schultz are replaced by some combination of kids.

That second lineup also gives you the chance to send MacDonald through waivers, which is a quick rabbit hole that I'm going to fall down. Here are some teams that have the requisite cap space (per General Fanager) and also a desperate enough need for blueline help (per Dom I-Can't-Spell-His-Last-Name) that they might take on someone who stinks as bad as MacDonald for the next four years:

• Hurricanes: $16.5 million in cap space, a bunch of young/cheap defensemen that could benefit from the tutelage of an experienced vet like MacDonald, similar to how he had a positive impact on the Phantoms last season (ignore that he played for an AHL team and got paid $5 million last season)
• Devils: $11.3 million in cap space, are already paying $5 million for multiple years to Replacement-Level Defenseman Andy Greene, do not have a defenseman that projects in the top half of the NHL since they traded away Adam Larsson, are already going to ice the worst blueline in the league, midas whale go for it and try to have the worst group of defensemen in history
• Panthers: $9.2 million in cap space, are probably actually okay on overpaid defensemen since they're paying Keith Yandle and Jason Demers a combined $10.85 million through 2023 and 2021 respectively. They also have $7.5 million committed to Aaron Ekblad until 2025 (not an overpay, just mentioning the financial obligation)
• Sabres: $8.5 million in cap space, are going to ice (by Dom's estimation) the second-worst defense behind the Devils, including the worst number one defenseman in the league (Rasmus Ristolainen) and the worst overall defenseman in the league (Josh Gorges)(yes, he's even worse than Dan Girardi). I've been mostly sarcastic in this section but I think the Sabres would actually benefit from claiming MacDonald and working them into their blueline rotation

Maybe Hextall has to grease the palm of the Sabres a little bit, with a prospect or a pick. Maybe Tim Murray realizes what's happening in Philly with Provorov (and the "next year" guys like Morin and Sanheim and Myers) and sees a way to pry a long-term asset away from Hextall while also making his miserable blueline a bit stronger in the process. Maybe he realizes he can buy MacDonald out next summer (or the following one) with a cap penalty of less than $2 million when MacDonald's gone. 

Here's my dream Hexy press conference: "Andrew MacDonald has been traded to Buffalo with a second round pick in exchange for a conditional pick that ranges from fourth to sixth depending on MacDonald's games played and the team's success. No salary will be retained."

Now it's time for me to go have some alone time in the bathroom and think about that fantasy. 

Flyers Preseason Recap: 9/26

The team split up for the evening, with half going to New Jersey and half going to New York. With the majority of the top end of the Flyers roster not included in either lineup, it was a good chance for the coaching and management staff to see some of the young guys in action.

And it would have been cool for the fans to be able to see them, too. But that was too much for the NHL. The Devils game was only broadcast on the radio, and the Islanders game was streamed on the Flyers' website with no game sounds and an announcer who couldn't see what was happening on the ice.

So, that part was not great. But Sons of Penn did a solid job translating the highlights to GIF form, and Micah McCurdy somehow got advanced stats charts for both games. Let's dive in.

Flyers (0) vs. Islanders (3)

I tried to watch this stream, but the combination of poor video quality and terrible announcing made it tough. I don't blame it on the Flyers, or on the announcer, because this was his setup last night:

This is literally my vantage point tonight, so I apologize for any lack of descriptive terms pic.twitter.com/v9kf6ZG6iV

— Brian Smith (@BSmithFlyers) September 26, 2016

It was always going to be shitty. But my man Brian powered through, and here's what we were able to see (kind of):

• With the exception of late in the second and third periods, Anthony Stolarz was shelled. He gave up two goals. But, in a game that allowed for very little team practice beforehand and featured just two NHL-veteran Flyers (Michael Del Zotto and Nick Cousins), there were flashes of brilliance from Stolarz. However, he was very much outshined by the goalie in the other game (more on him later). 
• Nick Cousins got into two fights, and neither of them was as entertaining as Tyrell Goulbourne's fight last week. 
• The big names on the Islanders roster last night were prospects Mathew Barzal, Michael Dal Colle, Ryan Strome, and Joshua Ho-Sang. All four of them had at least one point, and Barzal was the only one of the four to not score a goal. We've known the future is bright for the Islanders, but it's scary to see it happen. 
• In this game, they split time between defensemen pretty evenly. The two guys to watch were Sam Morin and Travis Sanheim, obviously. They both played about 20 minutes total (Sanheim had some powerplay time and Morin killed at least one penalty). Morin, whether it's in training camp or in a game situation, clearly needs more time to stew. He's going to be an absolute animal, but his puck skills and decision making need to develop naturally. Sanheim is supposed to be the guy that already has those skills, but I was a little nervous about how he looked. Granted, it was tough to follow, but the few times I noticed #57 he was doing things that were bad. 

Flyers (0) vs. Devils (2)

• We'll start with the easiest analysis of this game. Carter Hart, by all accounts, was absolutely fantastic. He gave up one goal (the second was an empty netter). Keep in mind that this Devils lineup was made up of more than half of their actual NHL roster (Bennett, Cammalleri, Gazdic, Josefson, Kalinin, Zacha, Zajac, Greene, Lovejoy, Severson). Hart outplayed Stolarz against superior competition, and even though it's just one game it's a great sign for the goalie battle in Lehigh Valley*. 
• The Devils may have iced an NHL roster, but the Flyers certainly didn't. Scott Laughton and Brandon Manning were the only skaters with significant NHL experience, but the lineup also included NHL hopefuls Travis Konecny, Taylor Leier, Roman Lyubimov, Robert Haag, and Ivan Provorov. 
• Obviously Provorov is getting his own bullet. He played 29 (!!) minutes total, which includes leading the team in ice time in even strength, powerplay, and penalty kill minutes. He was as far from sheltered as a rookie can be, starting half of his shifts in his defensive zone. In a game where the 5v5 shot attempts chart essentially has every Devil in the positive and every Flyer in the negative, Provorov just about broke even in possession numbers. That includes close individual shot attempt battles with NHLers Lovejoy, Greene, Cammalleri, Zajac, and Bennett. Provy held Pavel Zacha to zero shot attempts while they were on the ice together, which is notable because Zacha was taken one pick before him. Provorov belongs in the NHL, and he proved it to us last night by holding his own against half a dozen guys who are experienced NHL veterans. 

*Update: obviously Carter Hart is only 18, so he'll be going back to juniors for at least another year. The goalie battle in Lehigh Valley will be between Stolarz and Alex Lyon. I hope you guys can all give me the credit I deserve for striving to put the best, most accurate, tremendously great product on your screen at all times. Thank you.

The Flyers' Rookie Camp Lines Are Interesting (Hmmm Emoji)

In case you don't have a huge Flyers Twitter presence on your timeline, Flyers rookie camp is underway. The Youths have arrived in Voorhees, and they're all trying to carve out their roles on the Phantoms or try to avoid getting sent back to their junior team in southwestern Manitoba.

For all of you Canadian Geography novices, that southwestern Manitoba comment was an Ivan Provorov joke. He's the guy that everyone seems to think has the best chance of making the Flyers out of camp, and he's got about three weeks to prove that to Ron Hextall.

We'll see how that develops. But the lineups the team used for this camp today are (in my mind) indicative of how these young guys are viewed. Let's go live to Dave Isaac in Voorhees:

#Flyers rookie lines in skate:
Goulbourne, Martel, Aube-Kubel
Bunnaman, Salinitri, Konecny
Dove-McFalls/Twarynski, Laberge, Swaveley
...

— Dave Isaac (@davegisaac) September 21, 2016

Leier (not on rookie roster), Fazleev, Lyubimov

D pairs:
Morin & Sanheim
McFadden & Willcox
Provorov & Menell/Myers

— Dave Isaac (@davegisaac) September 21, 2016

 Thanks, Dave.

Forwards

The Goulbourne-Martel-Aubekubel line is going to KILL IT for the Phantoms this year.

The Bunnaman-Salinitri-Konecny trio is all going to be heading back to the OHL this season. Salinitri and Konecny play together in Sarnia.

I'm not sure what to make of that third line. Swaveley is a 24-year-old kid out of college who played 15 games for the Phantoms last year. The other three are 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks from the past two years who are all probably headed back to Canadian juniors to stew for another season or two.

The fourth line is where is gets really interesting. Taylor Leier is an AHL veteran (sort of, he's played two seasons with the Phantoms). Fazleev will be making his AHL debut this upcoming season, but people have high hopes for him. And, playing with those two guys who figure to be impact guys for Lehigh Valley, is 24-year-old rookie Roman Lyubimov.

Lyubimov (pronounced "lube-him-off") was signed this summer from the KHL. He's kind of a while card and his point totals indicate that he'll probably be more of a depth guy than anything. But he's with Leier and Fazleev, which is an excellent sign for him.

Defense

Morin and Sanheim are going to probably be two members of Lehigh Valley's top four defensemen this year. Robert Hagg (pronounced "hog) will also probably factor into that discussion, as will Mark Alt, TJ Brennan, and Andrew MacDonald (kidding but not really).

The McFadden/Wilcox pairing is one that might be able to stick at the bottom of the Phantoms lineup, but they might also get bumped to lower leagues like the CHL or ECHL for one more season.  Willcox, in case you haven't heard, was the Captain of the Cornell University Hockey Team. Cornell Is An Ivy League School. Ithaca Is Gorges.

Provorov, Menell, and Myers are all too young to play in the AHL this season. It's Flyers or Juniors for all three of them.

Initially, I was impressed that Menell scored 53 points as a defenseman last year in the WHL. Then I realized that Provorov scored 73 points in less games and was 84 points better in plus/minus. I hate plus/minus as a stat, but the difference between -20 and +64 is YUGE. Menell, see you in the WHL this year.

I like Myers but he's going to play another year in the QMJHL, probably serve as one of the captains of Rouyn-Noranda, and then he'll get to the AHL in 2017-18 and develop the traditional way.

Ivan Provorov

Now, let's talk about a defenseman developing in the non-traditional way. I saved the best for last. My thoughts, largely, can be summed up by Charlie O'Connor from Broad Street Hockey and Mike DiNicola from O&BP. Talent-wise, Provy is clearly NHL-caliber. Physically, he fills out his 6'1" frame well enough that he could withstand the nature of the NHL.

The question about Provorov's NHL readiness boils down to whether or not he's ready mentally. The NHL season is a long, grueling run to the playoffs (and then it gets even more grueling). The past two years with Brandon, he played 60 and 62 games (plus 19 and 21 more in the playoffs). Again, he should be there physically. But the mental adaptation can be a big one. I'll reference this quote from Sam Morin, who made the leap from juniors to the AHL at age 20:

"The AHL is so much different than junior. It's not even close. The guys are way stronger and little things, like in the corners, those guys aren't gliding to the net. They're sprinting. There's just so much intensity and that's the big difference. It was a big adjustment, but I learned from it."

And that's about a worse league with two extra years of development!

You're asking a kid who has been able to dip Skoal (mint, long cut) and read Playboy magazine (RIP) for less than two years to leave behind a world where he's ALWAYS been the best player on EVERY team he's ever played for. You want that kid to have to immediately play against guys like Evgeny Malkin, Alex Ovechkin, and Jason Gosh Darn Fucking Chimera? You're insane. He's going to have to ease into it.

But here's where I start to see both sides of the debate. Provorov is going to have to make that jump eventually. We can't stop Alex Ovechkin from cheap-shotting him and breaking his shoulder forever. At some point, there is going to have to be a leap. For Shayne Gostisbehere, at age 22, the "leap" was Mark Streit's broken vas deferens.

For Ivan Provorov, at age 19, is the "leap" just going to be "better now than later"?

Well actually, there are reasons to think it might not be better now than later. In Brandon, Provorov led the team on the ice - because he was the best defenseman in the whole CHL - but he wasn't tasked with leading the locker room as a captain. Captaincy is one major selling point of sliding Provorov back to the Wheat Kings.

The other benefit of pushing back Provy's three-year entry-level contract is money. If this thing goes according to plan, he's going to command the Dougie Hamilton contract ($5-6 million) after his entry-level deal expires. Would you rather:

• $900k from age 19-22 (2016-19), then at least $5 million from age 22 (2019-20) until forever
• $900k from age 20-23 (2017-20), then at least $5 million from age 23 (2020-21) until forever

Basically, do you want to let him captain Brandon for a year, and pay him at least $4 million less in 2019-20? Part of me says yes, that's a logical move for his development and for the team's salary cap situation. 

And then part of me says FUCK THAT I WANT TO WATCH IVAN PROVOROV RIGHT THE FUCK NOW!

So I don't know, I'm really torn. Obviously, We'll see how he looks in camp.