I'm going to be honest with you guys. I kind of mailed it in yesterday. One of the drawbacks of trying to blog about player props two nights a week from your desk at work is that you are doing it from your desk at work. Boss over shoulder, phone ringing, meetings with HR telling me to stop using the computer for personal use, the distractions are endless.
And yesterday I basically picked the line, the over, and the "To Score A Touchdown" props for seven players. And I got killed, final score Pittsburgh 24, San Diego 20:
Chargers -4 (Loss)
They let Phil Rivers throw the ball 48 times and he was only able to orchestrate 2 touchdown drives. Late game heroics from Bell aside, Rivers needed to put up more than 20 points. And he did not.
Over 46 (Loss)
See above.
Le'Veon Bell (Win)
San Diego had a 3 point lead at the end so it wasn't going to be a cover anyway, but Bell running it in as time expired for the win (from the Wildcat, no less) was a real kick in the dick. We didn't cover, we missed the over by 2 points, and the touchdown payout here was -175.
DeAngelo Williams (Loss)
Hey Jay, you idiot! There's a reason he was +450 to score a goddamn touchdown last night!
Antonio Brown (Loss)
Darrius Heyward-Bey (Loss)
Mike Vick only completed 13 passes, and 3 of them went to Bell. The Steelers' leading receiver last night was Markus Wheaton, who had the lone touchdown despite catching just one pass.
Melvin Gordon (Loss)
Melvin led the team in rushing attempts and was second in receptions but couldn't get into the end zone. Typical move from a guy named Melvin, and I should have known better.
Keenan Allen (Loss)
This one stings.
Antonio Gates (Win)
Let's end on a high note! (Puts bag on head)
Last night: 2-7
Thursday nights: 12-11-2
Monday nights: 13-17
Showing posts with label chargers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chargers. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Monday, October 12, 2015
Monday Night Football Preview: Steelers @ Chargers
We split our college picks from Friday's post. It was really nice to actually win a bet, because it had been like a week since we saw black. We followed it up with a solid NFL Sunday where we hit on the Eagles, Cardinals, Patriots and a Bills/Falcons teaser.
Do you smell that? It's momentum! We're rolling! Let's go to Steelers-Chargers tonight:
Game Lines: Chargers -4, Over/Under 46, Total Touchdowns Over/Under 5.5
The Chargers want to pass the ball, and they do so more than anyone in the league except the Patriots. The Steelers want to run the ball, but they are in the middle of the pack in terms of rush yards per game (Note: things done changed since Le'Veon Bell came back from his martyrdom and Ben Roethlisberger got hurt). Pittsburgh has a pretty much average pass defense. San Diego has a bad (but not quite atrocious) run defense. Pittsburgh is near the top of the league in points against (18.8). San Diego is near the bottom (27.5).
The Chargers are favored here because, in today's NFL, passing is more important than rushing. Phil Rivers is better than Michael Vick, and that means more than Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown being better than anyone on the Chargers.
Chargers -4 (-105)
Over 46 (-115)
I like San Diego tonight in a shootout and I like the over. I'm not going to bet the total touchdowns prop, but I always think it's interesting to see how many TDs are going to be split between the skill players. Under 5.5 pays -145, so the line is really more like Over/Under 5 touchdowns.
Here's who I think is getting those five touchdowns:
Le'Veon Bell (-175)
There is never any value in betting the star running back, but it's free money.
DeAngelo Williams (+450)
The value comes in the form of Bell's backup, who has scored 3 touchdowns this year that all came against San Francisco before Bell came back. Because you can run against the Chargers, it's not unreasonable to think that someone other than Bell gets in the end zone.
Antonio Brown (Even)
Duh.
Darrius Heyward-Bey (+200)
DHB has turned into a sneaky good red zone target. He scored touchdowns against San Francisco and Baltimore.
Melvin Gordon (Even)
He has 53.3% of the team's carries this year, and he's averaging 4.1 yards per carry. He has 4 runs of 20+ yards. Somehow he's been held to zero touchdowns, and I think that's gotta change sometime.
Keenan Allen (-115)
He is Rivers' favorite target and he has scored 3 touchdowns in the past 2 weeks.
Antonio Gates (+125)
Gates is back! He's fresh off the steroids, so I almost don't want to bet on him to score because he's probably all flabby now. But it's Antonio Gates and I'm sure Phil will be happy to have him back in the red zone.
Do you smell that? It's momentum! We're rolling! Let's go to Steelers-Chargers tonight:
Game Lines: Chargers -4, Over/Under 46, Total Touchdowns Over/Under 5.5
The Chargers want to pass the ball, and they do so more than anyone in the league except the Patriots. The Steelers want to run the ball, but they are in the middle of the pack in terms of rush yards per game (Note: things done changed since Le'Veon Bell came back from his martyrdom and Ben Roethlisberger got hurt). Pittsburgh has a pretty much average pass defense. San Diego has a bad (but not quite atrocious) run defense. Pittsburgh is near the top of the league in points against (18.8). San Diego is near the bottom (27.5).
The Chargers are favored here because, in today's NFL, passing is more important than rushing. Phil Rivers is better than Michael Vick, and that means more than Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown being better than anyone on the Chargers.
Chargers -4 (-105)
Over 46 (-115)
I like San Diego tonight in a shootout and I like the over. I'm not going to bet the total touchdowns prop, but I always think it's interesting to see how many TDs are going to be split between the skill players. Under 5.5 pays -145, so the line is really more like Over/Under 5 touchdowns.
Here's who I think is getting those five touchdowns:
Le'Veon Bell (-175)
There is never any value in betting the star running back, but it's free money.
DeAngelo Williams (+450)
The value comes in the form of Bell's backup, who has scored 3 touchdowns this year that all came against San Francisco before Bell came back. Because you can run against the Chargers, it's not unreasonable to think that someone other than Bell gets in the end zone.
Antonio Brown (Even)
Duh.
Darrius Heyward-Bey (+200)
DHB has turned into a sneaky good red zone target. He scored touchdowns against San Francisco and Baltimore.
Melvin Gordon (Even)
He has 53.3% of the team's carries this year, and he's averaging 4.1 yards per carry. He has 4 runs of 20+ yards. Somehow he's been held to zero touchdowns, and I think that's gotta change sometime.
Keenan Allen (-115)
He is Rivers' favorite target and he has scored 3 touchdowns in the past 2 weeks.
Antonio Gates (+125)
Gates is back! He's fresh off the steroids, so I almost don't want to bet on him to score because he's probably all flabby now. But it's Antonio Gates and I'm sure Phil will be happy to have him back in the red zone.
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