Dave's NBA Finals Preview (the one that matters)

So it's that time of year again....and no, I'm not talking about the time where I actually follow through and contribute to this blog again. I'm talking about the NBA Finals. The long basketball season has come down to just this one series and ladies and gentlemen...it's going to be a good one.

The drama consumed season filled with the lockout, a shortened season, injured superstars and more has come to a boiling point. The two teams that everyone thought would be in the Finals actually did make it for once. The Miami Heat and the Oklahoma City Thunder are about to face off in a Finals match up that has the potential to be one of the best Finals series in a very long time.

The story lines behind this match up are intriguing. You've got the Heat, who are trying to avenge a Finals loss from a year ago to get not five, not six, not seven....but one championship. And then the Thunder. The young, athletic team from the midwest who we, as NBA fans, have watched grow into a powerhouse right before our eyes. David Stern has to be thrilled with the result because the ratings for the series should be as high as ever.

ESPN.com did one of their "NBA Roundtable 5 on 5" articles yesterday so let's answer of their questions...

The most important player in the Finals is _________.


The answer to this question is (as every analyst answered identically) LeBron James. The Chosen One himself, who would've guessed.....literally every person in America. This is LeBron's time. He's coming off of another MVP season and unlike a year ago, he seems to have finally remembered how to play the game of basketball like he knows how to. Perfect example- Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. LeBron had 45 points and 15 rebounds....oh and by the way, he had 30 of those points in the FIRST HALF. The game was literally over at halftime, all thanks to LeBron. If LeBron is able to summon his talents like he has throughout the playoffs and avoid being intimidated by the spotlight (as he has this year), he could finally redeem himself and become an NBA champion.

The most important match up in this series is ___________.


Dwyane Wade vs Thabo Sefolosha/James Harden. Throughout these playoffs, Wade has been very inconsistent- something we're not used to seeing from him. The former Finals MVP will be crucial to the Heat's success during this series. If he plays the way we all know he can, the Heat could have a much easier time with the Thunder than many people expect. But, the offense/defense combination of James Harden/Thabo Sefolosha could pose problems for Wade. Sefolosha has really been a crucial X-factor for OKC throughout the playoffs (in particular in the San Antonio series). He's a lock down defender who provides the team with a HUGE boost when he's able to contribute offensively. James Harden is a true offensive threat and one of the best young players in the league. He's also been extremely clutch for the Thunder throughout these playoffs.

The most important X-factor in the Finals is ____________.


The Heat's bench. It's been well documented that the Miami bench has underperformed this season. They struggle mightily offensively and relying heavily on them could pose problems for the Heat. Without help from their role players, the Miami Heat could find themselves in another losing situation in the Finals.

The first sign you'll be looking for in the Finals will be ___________.


If Miami comes out aggressively from the start of the game. There have been a few games in the playoffs where the Heat have lacked aggressiveness and fallen behind early. Although there were times they were able to recover from the slow start, they won't have such an easy time doing that against the Thunder and their raucous arena. It is important for LeBron and Wade to come out firing on all cylinders and setting the tone for their team. If the Heat lack aggressiveness, the Thunder could potentially blow them out Game 1.

The winner of the Larry O'Brien trophy will be ___________.


OKC in 7. I could easily be wrong about this pick because Miami is obviously a great team. But for some reason I feel good about this Thunder team. They have everything going for them right now. Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka and the bench have been great. The Thunder even have the fan advantage (the OKC fans are much rowdier than those in Miami). It'll be another disappointing year for LeBron and the first chapter in the dominant career of Kevin Durant.

Jay's NBA Finals Preview

If you guys can remember back to November, I said this (edited for space):

"2 Good Teams

Miami Heat

I don't care - not even a little bit - about the collapse in the playoffs/finals. If anything, that will help the Heat this season.. bear with me. Now, we have definitive evidence that this team belongs to Dwyane Wade. Lebron James is the best basketball player on the planet, yes, but this is Wade's team when they need a leader. There goes their biggest problem from last season. Prepare for domination, as long as Lebron has been reading everyone's tweets over the summer and accepts his role. 

With the size down low they can match up with any team in the NBA and overpower them. It's all on Lebron (sort of, because what I mean by this is that it's actually all on DWade). 

Oklahoma City Thunder

If I'm right, then the Heat will meet the Thunder in the NBA Finals. The Thunder's core is in a prime spot to overthrow Kobe, Dirk, Steve Nash, Tim Duncan, and the rest of the Western Division. Despite a pretty lackluster draft, the Thunder still have a phenomenal starting 5: Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefolosha/James Harden, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, and Kendrick Perkins. Top to bottom, they can guard any team in the NBA (except Dirk) and outscore any team (except the re-invigorated Heat). 

NBA Finals Prediction: Heat over Thunder, 5 Games"

And really, I only got like one thing wrong:

• LeBron was far and away the best player on the Heat. Dwyane Wade was maybe even the third most valuable player. Oops.
• The Heat's (lack of) size was one of their major flaws. Oops. 
• The Thunder swept Dirk's Mavericks. Oops.

But, I did get that LeBron was going to be the most influential player on the Heat's success and that OKC couldn't guard Dirk all that well (25-31-17-34 points per game, 41.8 JPoint) and that these teams would meet each other in the Finals. Ergo I think you can lock down Miami winning in five. 

Maybe don't quite lock that down. Because I think that enough people want the Thunder to win (OKC could wear white jerseys and Miami could wear black jerseys every single game and nobody would care. Create kind of a hero-villain atmosphere, how do you feel about that David Stern?) and they really feed off support. Couple that with the fact that it seems that LeBron can't handle being unloved and the crowds/America could actually be a pretty huge factor.

Normally I'd break down the backcourt comparisons (advantage Thunder), small forward comparisons (advantage Heat), and frontcout comparisons (advantage Miami), team chemistry comparisons (advantage Thunder). But I just did that in one sentence so let's just throw it all out the window because I have absolutely no clue how the next week or two are going to play out. 

Part of me hopes that Oklahoma City wins so LeBron doesn't get a ring and the glimmer of hope in Cleveland fans' eyes stays alive that they can win a title before LeBron. Kevin Durant goes about everything perfectly - his game, his podium game, his fashion game - and Westbrook is (for me) the most intriguing player in the NBA (more on that in another post, maybe). Plus they have Derek Fisher, which has to count for at least one late-game-three-pointer-dagger. 

But part of me wants LeBron to shine on the game's biggest stage, win the first of many rings, and silence the haters. He's so gifted physically. He's so un-gifted emotionally and personality-ly. He needs to hire someone (I'm available) as a PR rep. Because I'm absolutely sure that he doesn't currently have one. It's not possible. We're getting off track. This is going to be a telling series for LeBron. If he can shoulder the load (but still have Bosh and Wade) then he'll probably win and go down a path of championship-winning. If he can't win with this team, he will probably never win one. And then the whole Cleveland thing may just come true. Dan Gilbert will be a prophet. And LeBron's hair will continue to retreat. 

But fuck it, I'm sticking with my Heat in 5 games prediction that I made in November (that's seven months ago). 

The Phillies' Injury List

I'm stuck in International Economics class right now. It's brutal. It gets me really frustrated with where my life is right now. I don't want to be here. But it gives me time to reflect on other things that frustrate me. Most of all, the Philadelphia Phillies.

As it stands now (June 7th at around 1 o'clock) the Phillies are in last place in the NL East. Six games behind the Nationals. Two games behind the Braves and Marlins. Two and a half games behind the goddamn Mets. Two games below .500! The Phillies!

It's a joke. 

The Phillies are missing their starting first baseman, starting second baseman, and the best pitcher in the entire league. Not to make excuses for the poor play, but here's the list of all the Phillies that have missed time due to injury this season:

Pitchers

Roy Halladay, SP

Cliff Lee, SP

Vance Worley, SP

Michael Stutes, RP

Jose Contreras, RP

David Herndon, RP

Justin De Fratus, RP

Ryan Madson , RP

(What's that? Madson no longer plays for the Phillies? What? The Reds? Oh. Okay)

Fielders

Ryan Howard, 1B

Chase Utley, 2B

Jimmy Rollins, SS (okay, it was a paternity leave)

Placido Polanco, 3B

Freddy Galvis, 2B/SS

Jim Thome, 1B

Laynce Nix, 1B/3B/OF

Dom Brown, OF

Shane Victorino, OF

Michael Martinez, Utility

Do I even need to say "not to make excuses"? I mean Jesus Christ that's two of the three best starting pitchers, the fourth best starter, half the bullpen, the entire right side of the infield and their replacements. 

Granted, not all of these injuries have been long stints on the DL but the Phils' two biggest problems this season have been scoring runs and holding leads. No Utley, Howard, Herndon, Stutes, or Contreras directly leads to that. They have lost 11 games by one run. You know what helps prevent one-run losses? Guys that can hit home runs and guys that can pitch a whole inning without giving up any runs. 

The Phils are on a skid now, having lost their last five games to a combination of the Marlins and Dodgers. But I think we/they just need to bide our/their time and stay around 5-8 games out. Because when Halladay/Utley/Howard/The Bullpen come back with the NL Pennant in their sights, look out. 

The Post-2012 Heat

Alright boys and girls, let's talk LeBron.

In the aftermath of another epic collapse down the stretch by the Heat last night, I got to thinking about why the Heat can't seem to mesh properly. The team is absolutely loaded with talent, devoid of a serious power struggle between the best players (there really isn't much of a struggle here, mainly due to James' submissive personality), and plays its best basketball on the defensive side of the hoop, which leads to their explosive fast break capabilities. So why don't they mesh?

Fantasy Euro 2012 Preview

Well, it took almost an entire week to draft the four Fantasy Euro teams. But they're in:

Team Jay (@jaylike)
G Maarten Stekelenburg, Netherlands
D Philipp Lahm, Germany
D Giorgio Chiellini, Italy
D John Terry, England
M David Silva, Spain
M Steven Gerrard, England
M Samir Nasri, France
M Niko Kranjcar, Croatia
F Mario Gomez, Germany
F Robin van Persie, Netherlands
F Andrei Arshavin, Russia

Team Alex/Daggy (@tsoupac)
G Joe Hart, England
D Gerard Pique, Spain
D Gregory van der Wiel, Netherlands
D Patrice Evra, France
M Luca Modric, Croatia
M Bastian Schweinsteiger, Germany
M Andres Iniesta, Spain
M Arjen Robben, Netherlands
F Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Sweden
F Thomas Muller, Germany
F Roman Pavlyuchenko, Russia

Team Toph (@TheTrueMalone)
G Hugo Lloris, France
D Michal Kadlec, Czech Republic
D Sergei Ignashevich, Russia
D Aleksandr Anyukov, Russia
M Mesut Ozil, Germany
M Wesley Sneijder, Netherlands
M Xavi, Spain
M Nani, Portugal
F Miroslav Klose, Germany
F Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Netherlands
F Karim Benzema,, France

Team Brendan (@woodermelon)
G Iker Casillas, Spain
D Sergio Ramos, Spain
D Ashley Cole, England
D Roman Sharonov, Russia
M Franck Ribery, France
M Florent Malouda, France
M Dirk Kuyt, Netherlands
M Andrea Pirlo, Italy
F Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal
F Lukas Podolski, Germany
F Jermain Defoe, England

And remember that each team will get to drop one player for another when the tournament switches from Group Play to Elimination Play, and that those drops will go in order of least fantasy points first.

This is my first Bullets Blog post in a while. I like to keep my posts at a minimum, be right approximately 99% of the time, and then throw it in people's faces when I make accurate predictions (see: Don't Sleep on the Pacers, where I predicted that the Pacers would surprise a lot of people this year). So there you have it.

Anyway, this blog is centered on perhaps the biggest (current) enigma in professional sports: LeBron James. By this point in time, we have all heard the pro-Lebron arguments (most athletic player ever, best stat-sheet stuffer of our generation, and perhaps of all time) and the anti-LeBron arguments (The Decision fiasco, no titles/lack of clutch gene). And there is some truth in each argument.

I look at LeBron differently than most. The majority of anti-LeBron people will say "he can't come up clutch." Wrong. Aside from the abysmal (yes, abysmal) Mavericks series in last year's finals, LeBron has been a clutch performer throughout his career. Some highlights include an obscene 29 consecutive point barrage in the fourth quarter and overtime against the Pistons in 2007, when the Pistons had arguably the best defense of that decade. Another highlight was his first Finals, when he was consistently double and triple teamed by the Spurs and managed to average over 25 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists per game. And, of course, the forgotten conference finals in 2009, when LeBron torched the Celtics to a tune of 38.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 8.0 assists, albeit in a losing effort.

Then, my favorite. In 2010-2011, the season when everyone started to hate LeBron for joining the Heat, he outperformed Kobe in the clutch (statistically) by a wide margin.

So, I don't buy that LeBron isn't a clutch player.

But I also don't go ga-ga over him, because unlike the pro-LeBron crowd, I dislike many things about his game. His jump shot is poor and his free throw shooting is poor. I think he flops too much, and despite all those statistical facts praising how "clutch" he is, I would like to see him be more aggressive offensively towards the end of a game, by demanding the ball, and not watching Dwayne Wade dribble around helplessly before hoisting a contested 26-footer.

So, needless to say, I try to view him objectively.

As all of my friends will tell you, I am definitely pro-LeBron on the whole. I believe he gets unfairly blamed for things that are out of his control, as basketball is indeed a team sport, but I also believe he can get overpraised for the same reasons.

Here is the harsh reality, as Chris has explained to me time and time again. By giving himself nicknames such as "The King," getting "The Chosen One" tattooed on his back, guaranteeing "not one, not two, not three..." championships with Wade and Bosh, he has raised the bar for himself so high that nothing, and I mean NOTHING he can do will ever reach it. If he does go out and win 8 championships like he promised the city of Miami, his legacy will be tarnished because of The Decision.

He has given himself these expectations, so why can't we judge him based on them?

And there it is: the pradox of LeBron James. If he wins, it's only because he had Dwayne Wade to help him. If he loses, its inexcusable because he had Dwayne Wade to help him.

The fact of the matter is, I don't believe the Heat will win the title this year. And it will have nothing to do with LeBron, because I believe he will bring it this year, unlike last year. The team just has too many holes, and quite frankly, I believe the Spurs are just too good. So we'll enter another year of LeBron being trashed in the media, which will ultimately lead the Heat to do something rash, such as trade Wade or sign some equally big name free agent (Steve Nash?) to try to win next year.

Bold predictions are what I'm all about! Am I crazy, or brilliant? Let me know!

BBFNBA Update

Hey guys I know it's a little late but I figured I should post a little something to keep everyone up to date. Consider this the post-round 1 blog. Only it includes like 1-3 games from round 2. Whatever. Your official scoreboard, as of 12:30am on May 17, 2012:

Mark - 2327 

Jason - 2302

Alex - 2217

Chris - 2121

Dave - 1949

First of all, let's pour some out for Dave. He is dead. That's what you get when you make dumb homer picks like Carmelo Anthony over Kobe in the first round of the draft. In round one, Kobe outscored Melo 271-191 in fantasy points. And he advanced to the second round. 

Our first next-level stat is called "Ideal Drops." Based on fantasy points per game/which players on the team tend to score the most fantasy points/who the owner should want to lose in the matchup (for example, I'd rather have Russell Westbrook advance than Ian Mahinmi), I selected the 8 players that would ideally be dropped. Here's how that played out:

Mark - 6/8 (ideally would have kept Glen Davis and Al Jefferson)

Jason - 6/8 (kept Josh Smith and Gordon Hayward)

Alex - 6/8 (kept Ty Lawson and Luol Deng)

Chris - 5/8 (kept Devin Harris, OJ Mayo, Shawn Marion)

Dave - 2/8 (ideally would have kept Joe Johnson, Jason Terry, Jason Richardson, 

Carmelo Anthony, Rudy Gay, JaVale McGee)

Our Bullets Blog NBA Expert, everyone! I mean Jesus, Dave. You couldn't even keep all the players you wish you could have kept on one line? Things are not looking good for the future of Marintown. 

But enough bashing. Let's move on to the future. Trova is absolutely dominating the second round so far:

Mark - 426

Chris - 392

Jason - 341

Alex - 311

Dave - 235

Behind LeBron, Rondo, Manu, and Blake Griffin, Team Trova appears to be unstoppable. 

What could stop Mark's guys: 

• Miami loses to Indiana in as few games as possible
• Boston loses to Philly behind Pierce, Allen, and Garnett (and not Rondo)
• Oklahoma City makes a substantial run behind Durant and Westbrook
• Kobe and Bynum lead the Lakers on a run (with minimal help from Pau)
• Tony Parker carries the Spurs all the way and goes 40-15-15 every game? Would Dave even have a shot if this happened?