Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Sean Couturier Is Very Good

If you haven't been following Charlie O'Connor's season reviews on Broad Street Hockey this Spring, you absolutely should be. Today's edition was probably the most interesting yet:
In case you have never interacted with me in person or online before, I am of the belief that Sean Couturier is severely underrated by the Flyers, their fans, and the NHL community as a whole. I believe he should already be in the annual conversation for the Selke  Trophy, and it's laughable that his two highest finishes were 8th and 9th.

Charlie's post from this morning provided the underlying reason for the discrepancy between the wrong opinion (that he's overrated) and the correct opinion (underrated): Couturier excels at even strength and on the penalty kill, but lacks the raw scoring numbers that come with success on the power play.

My counter to that would be about 80-85% of hockey is played at even strength, and another 5-10% is on the penalty kill. Couturier, at worst, is an incredibly useful player for the vast majority of a hockey game.

And at best? He's among the best even-strength players in the entire NHL. Please allow me to do the professorial thing and direct you to my own work as a source:
Those numbers come from Corsica (of course). The guys ahead of Couturier in terms of xGF% are exactly who you'd expect: Hornqvist, Bergeron, Niederreiter, Marchand, Hertl, Koivu, Toffoli, Thornton, Pominville, McDavid, Hagelin, Malkin.

If we just accept that Bergeron, Marchand, Thornton, McDavid, and Malkin are five of the twenty best forwards in the league, there are two Penguins, three Wild, a Shark, and a King that are maybe scoring a bit higher than we'd expect here. Let's take a look at the HockeyViz forward networks:

  • Hornqvist plays almost all of his time with either and/or both of Crosby and Malkin
  • Hagelin either plays with Bonino and Kessel or one of Crosby/Malkin
  • Niederreiter, Koivu, and Pominville are part of Minnesota's stacked top nine, which cycles forwards around but almost always has two good-if-not-great players per line
  • Hertl plays with Thornton or Pavelski
  • Toffoli plays with Carter or Kopitar
Which leads me to where I went next after that basic tweet about Couturier's Corsica-generated stats. As good as 13th/233 in terms of Expected Goals For Percentage makes him look, I'm sure he'll look even better when we account for his usual linemates. And when we also factor in the fact that he almost always gets stuck defending the opponent's top line, he'll look like maybe the best center in the entire NHL. 

But first, here's how I accounted for teammates and competition. Corsica actually has three metrics for these already - based on ice time, Corsi, and xG. I threw out Corsi because I think it stinks, and I took averages of each player's quality of teammates and competition relative to the league averages for QoT/QoC based on ice time and expected goals. 

High Quality of Teammates

Here's the top of the list of players with the highest jQoT (or, in English, the best on-ice linemates):

Player Team  jQOT 
1 ZACH.PARISE MIN      2.696
2 NICKLAS.BACKSTROM WSH      2.631
3 PHIL.KESSEL PIT      2.536
4 ANZE.KOPITAR L.A      2.381
5 CHRIS.KUNITZ PIT      2.356
6 SIDNEY.CROSBY PIT      2.311
7 CHARLIE.COYLE MIN      2.221
8 JEFF.CARTER L.A      2.216
9 JOE.PAVELSKI S.J      2.206
10 JASON.ZUCKER MIN      2.191
11 DUSTIN.BROWN L.A      2.111
12 T.J..OSHIE WSH      2.076
13 TYLER.TOFFOLI L.A      2.076
14 DWIGHT.KING L.A/MTL      2.071
15 DAVID.PASTRNAK BOS      2.001
16 VIKTOR.ARVIDSSON NSH      1.926
17 TANNER.PEARSON L.A      1.886
18 DAVID.PERRON ANA/PIT/STL      1.861
19 MIKE.RIBEIRO NSH      1.851
20 ALEX.STEEN STL      1.786
21 FILIP.FORSBERG NSH      1.776
22 MIKAEL.GRANLUND MIN      1.771
23 MILAN.LUCIC L.A/EDM      1.761
24 MIKKO.KOIVU MIN      1.691
25 DAVID.KREJCI BOS      1.681
26 JAMES.NEAL NSH      1.656
27 COREY.PERRY ANA      1.631
28 NIKOLAJ.EHLERS WPG      1.626
29 TOMAS.PLEKANEC MTL      1.606
30 LEO.KOMAROV TOR      1.591

Low Quality of Teammates


And, at the opposite end of the spectrum, the guys who get stuck playing with the shittiest teammates:
Player Team  jQOT 
1 SHANE.DOAN ARI     (3.479)
2 BO.HORVAT VAN     (3.384)
3 HENRIK.SEDIN VAN     (3.354)
4 JOHN.MITCHELL COL     (3.324)
5 ANTHONY.DUCLAIR ARI     (3.189)
6 JORDAN.MARTINOOK ARI     (2.999)
7 BLAKE.COMEAU COL     (2.839)
8 SVEN.BAERTSCHI VAN     (2.834)
9 DANIEL.SEDIN VAN     (2.764)
10 MIKHAIL.GRIGORENKO COL     (2.649)
11 NATHAN.MACKINNON COL     (2.524)
12 VIKTOR.STALBERG NYR/CAR/OTT     (2.519)
13 RADIM.VRBATA VAN/ARI     (2.519)
14 MATT.DUCHENE COL     (2.414)
15 TOBIAS.RIEDER ARI     (2.319)
16 MAX.DOMI ARI     (2.309)
17 JAMIE.MCGINN ANA/BUF/ARI     (2.209)
18 TAYLOR.HALL EDM/N.J     (2.139)
19 ALEX.BURROWS VAN/OTT     (2.139)
20 CARL.SODERBERG COL     (2.119)
21 MATT.STAJAN CGY     (2.094)
22 CHRIS.VANDEVELDE PHI     (2.069)
23 MARK.LETESTU EDM     (2.044)
24 GABRIEL.LANDESKOG COL     (2.044)
25 JOHNNY.GAUDREAU CGY     (2.039)
26 MARTIN.HANZAL ARI/MIN     (1.954)
27 PIERRE-EDOUARD.BELLEMARE PHI     (1.894)
28 JAROMIR.JAGR FLA     (1.839)
29 MICHAEL.FROLIK CGY     (1.804)
30 JAROME.IGINLA COL/L.A     (1.739)
31 JOHN.TAVARES NYI     (1.699)
It's very hard not to feel bad for Tavares and Gaudreau. At least they'll be in Toronto and Philadelphia (respectively) soon enough. 

High Quality of Competition

And now, we shift our focus to competition. Here's who has to face the toughest opponents:
Player Team jQOC
1 JONATHAN.TOEWS CHI      0.578
2 LEO.KOMAROV TOR      0.538
3 NAZEM.KADRI TOR      0.503
4 NATHAN.MACKINNON COL      0.473
5 ARTEM.ANISIMOV CHI      0.463
6 NICKLAS.BACKSTROM WSH      0.448
7 PATRICE.BERGERON BOS      0.438
8 RYAN.KESLER ANA      0.433
9 GABRIEL.LANDESKOG COL      0.428
10 PAUL.STASTNY STL      0.418
11 BLAKE.WHEELER WPG      0.413
12 DEREK.STEPAN NYR      0.408
13 JAKOB.SILFVERBERG ANA      0.408
14 PATRICK.KANE CHI      0.403
15 BRAD.MARCHAND BOS      0.403
16 MATT.DUCHENE COL      0.398
17 ARTEMI.PANARIN CHI      0.398
18 RYAN.O'REILLY BUF      0.393
19 JOHN.TAVARES NYI      0.378
20 SEAN.COUTURIER PHI      0.368
21 TRAVIS.ZAJAC N.J      0.363
22 DAVID.PERRON ANA/PIT/STL      0.358
23 DANIEL.SEDIN VAN      0.358
24 KYLE.PALMIERI N.J      0.353
25 ANDREW.COGLIANO ANA      0.353
26 MAX.PACIORETTY MTL      0.348
27 CLAUDE.GIROUX PHI      0.348
28 T.J..OSHIE WSH      0.338
29 ALEX.OVECHKIN WSH      0.338
30 ALEX.STEEN STL      0.328
31 HENRIK.SEDIN VAN      0.328
32 JAROMIR.JAGR FLA      0.328
33 CONNOR.MCDAVID EDM      0.323
34 JORDAN.STAAL CAR      0.318
35 MIKKO.KOIVU MIN      0.308
36 JOE.THORNTON S.J      0.303
37 ALEKSANDER.BARKOV FLA      0.303
38 RICK.NASH NYR      0.298
39 JAMIE.BENN DAL      0.288
40 HENRIK.ZETTERBERG DET      0.283
41 SIDNEY.CROSBY PIT      0.283
Is it self-serving of me to include "Upcoming Annual Selke Finalist Sasha Barkov" and Crosby at the bottom of this list? Probably. But Couturier, if you'll notice, faces tougher competition than either of them. 

However, this certainly cements Toews, Bergeron, Backstrom, and Kesler as the guys in the "Yearly Selke Favorites Until Further Notice" group. 

Low Quality of Competition

Is anyone noteworthy going to pop up in the list of most sheltered players?

Player Team jQOC
1 CHRIS.TIERNEY S.J     (0.752)
2 MARK.LETESTU EDM     (0.702)
3 CHRIS.VANDEVELDE PHI     (0.672)
4 TOM.WILSON WSH     (0.672)
5 MATT.STAJAN CGY     (0.667)
6 DOMINIC.MOORE NYR/BOS     (0.652)
7 RILEY.NASH CAR/BOS     (0.582)
8 MATT.CULLEN PIT     (0.552)
9 JASON.CHIMERA WSH/NYI     (0.542)
10 PIERRE-EDOUARD.BELLEMARE PHI     (0.527)
11 TREVOR.LEWIS L.A     (0.522)
12 RYAN.SPOONER BOS     (0.517)
13 ANDRE.BURAKOVSKY WSH     (0.512)
14 NICK.BONINO PIT     (0.512)
15 BRIAN.BOYLE T.B/TOR     (0.507)
16 TORREY.MITCHELL MTL     (0.507)
17 COLTON.SCEVIOUR DAL/FLA     (0.497)
18 LARS.ELLER MTL/WSH     (0.482)
19 VIKTOR.STALBERG NYR/CAR/OTT     (0.472)
20 WILLIAM.KARLSSON CBJ     (0.467)
21 SCOTT.HARTNELL CBJ     (0.457)
22 ERIK.HAULA MIN     (0.437)
23 DANIEL.WINNIK TOR/WSH     (0.432)
24 RILEY.SHEAHAN DET     (0.372)
25 MIKE.RIBEIRO NSH     (0.372)
26 DALE.WEISE CHI/MTL/PHI     (0.367)
27 DWIGHT.KING L.A/MTL     (0.367)
28 MATT.MOULSON BUF     (0.367)
29 JOHN.MITCHELL COL     (0.357)
30 THOMAS.VANEK MIN/DET/FLA     (0.352)
NHL coaching these days seems like it's primarily just making sure your shitty players only get to play against other shitty players. 

Largest Difference Between Teammates and Competition

But what if we compare teammates and competition? Who gets stuck with easy matchups, or good teammates and bad opponents?

Player Team  jQOT  jQOC /\Qual
1 PHIL.KESSEL PIT      2.536     (0.117)      2.654
2 ZACH.PARISE MIN      2.696      0.153      2.544
3 DWIGHT.KING L.A/MTL      2.071     (0.367)      2.439
4 DUSTIN.BROWN L.A      2.111     (0.252)      2.364
5 CHRIS.KUNITZ PIT      2.356      0.043      2.314
6 CHARLIE.COYLE MIN      2.221     (0.052)      2.274
7 ANZE.KOPITAR L.A      2.381      0.128      2.254
8 MIKE.RIBEIRO NSH      1.851     (0.372)      2.224
9 NICKLAS.BACKSTROM WSH      2.631      0.448      2.184
10 JASON.ZUCKER MIN      2.191      0.028      2.164
11 JEFF.CARTER L.A      2.216      0.128      2.089
12 VIKTOR.ARVIDSSON NSH      1.926     (0.117)      2.044
13 SIDNEY.CROSBY PIT      2.311      0.283      2.029
14 NICK.BONINO PIT      1.451     (0.512)      1.964
15 TYLER.TOFFOLI L.A      2.076      0.118      1.959
16 JOE.PAVELSKI S.J      2.206      0.263      1.944
17 DAVID.PASTRNAK BOS      2.001      0.083      1.919
18 TANNER.PEARSON L.A      1.886     (0.007)      1.894
19 CALLE.JARNKROK NSH      1.521     (0.337)      1.859
20 COREY.PERRY ANA      1.631     (0.162)      1.794
21 T.J..OSHIE WSH      2.076      0.338      1.739
22 COLIN.WILSON NSH      1.426     (0.287)      1.714
23 FILIP.FORSBERG NSH      1.776      0.078      1.699
24 MILAN.LUCIC L.A/EDM      1.761      0.068      1.694
25 ANDRE.BURAKOVSKY WSH      1.151     (0.512)      1.664
26 TREVOR.LEWIS L.A      1.121     (0.522)      1.644
27 ALEX.GALCHENYUK MTL      1.446     (0.192)      1.639
28 ALEX.WENNBERG CBJ      1.566     (0.037)      1.604
29 JAMES.NEAL NSH      1.656      0.068      1.589
30 DAVID.KREJCI BOS      1.681      0.103      1.579
I have a few thoughts:
  • Good hockey players, as a function of coaching, play with good players more than they play against good players. The league averages for jQOT and jQOC are similar, even though they seem skewed in this table. Good coaches - and bad ones, I guess - play their best players in situations that will benefit the team. This chart does not mean that all of these players are actually bad. Just, you know, maybe some of them are a bit inflated by the situations in which they are placed. Like, for example...
  • Phil Kessel is probably overpaid and overrated but you are out of your goddamn mind if you think I'm ever going to go to war to defend that take.
  • Chris Kunitz is absolutely overrated and I will very happily preach that from the mountaintop. 
  • TJ Oshie is about to get paid like a man who plays with Backstrom and Ovechkin, and then he is not going to be playing with Backstrom and Ovechkin. 
  • Not a good look for David Krejci - he should be outperforming Bergeron comparatively, and I think it's safe to say that he rarely does. 
Largest Difference Between Competition and Teammates

Okay, here's the big payoff. We've worked all afternoon for this. Who gets boned the most overall?

Player Team  jQOT  jQOC /\Qual
1 HENRIK.SEDIN VAN     (3.354)      0.328     (3.681)
2 SHANE.DOAN ARI     (3.479)     (0.077)     (3.401)
3 BO.HORVAT VAN     (3.384)     (0.157)     (3.226)
4 DANIEL.SEDIN VAN     (2.764)      0.358     (3.121)
5 ANTHONY.DUCLAIR ARI     (3.189)     (0.142)     (3.046)
6 NATHAN.MACKINNON COL     (2.524)      0.473     (2.996)
7 JOHN.MITCHELL COL     (3.324)     (0.357)     (2.966)
8 JORDAN.MARTINOOK ARI     (2.999)     (0.032)     (2.966)
9 MATT.DUCHENE COL     (2.414)      0.398     (2.811)
10 BLAKE.COMEAU COL     (2.839)     (0.067)     (2.771)
11 RADIM.VRBATA VAN/ARI     (2.519)      0.078     (2.596)
12 SVEN.BAERTSCHI VAN     (2.834)     (0.252)     (2.581)
13 TOBIAS.RIEDER ARI     (2.319)      0.238     (2.556)
14 MIKHAIL.GRIGORENKO COL     (2.649)     (0.127)     (2.521)
15 GABRIEL.LANDESKOG COL     (2.044)      0.428     (2.471)
16 TAYLOR.HALL EDM/N.J     (2.139)      0.268     (2.406)
17 MAX.DOMI ARI     (2.309)      0.088     (2.396)
18 JAROMIR.JAGR FLA     (1.839)      0.328     (2.166)
19 JOHNNY.GAUDREAU CGY     (2.039)      0.108     (2.146)
20 JAMIE.MCGINN ANA/BUF/ARI     (2.209)     (0.092)     (2.116)
21 MARTIN.HANZAL ARI/MIN     (1.954)      0.153     (2.106)
22 JOHN.TAVARES NYI     (1.699)      0.378     (2.076)
23 CARL.SODERBERG COL     (2.119)     (0.062)     (2.056)
24 VIKTOR.STALBERG NYR/CAR/OTT     (2.519)     (0.472)     (2.046)
25 ALEX.BURROWS VAN/OTT     (2.139)     (0.192)     (1.946)
26 MICHAEL.FROLIK CGY     (1.804)     (0.022)     (1.781)
27 JAROME.IGINLA COL/L.A     (1.739)     (0.057)     (1.681)
28 LOUI.ERIKSSON BOS/VAN     (1.599)     (0.012)     (1.586)
29 ARTEMI.PANARIN CHI     (1.084)      0.398     (1.481)
30 SAM.REINHART BUF     (1.384)      0.083     (1.466)
31 SEAN.COUTURIER PHI     (1.079)      0.368     (1.446)
32 MATT.STAJAN CGY     (2.094)     (0.667)     (1.426)
33 CHRIS.VANDEVELDE PHI     (2.069)     (0.672)     (1.396)
34 JEAN-GABRIEL.PAGEAU OTT     (1.164)      0.228     (1.391)
35 CONNOR.MCDAVID EDM     (1.049)      0.323     (1.371)
36 PIERRE-E.BELLEMARE PHI     (1.894)     (0.527)     (1.366)
37 JESPER.FAST NYR     (1.549)     (0.192)     (1.356)
38 MARK.LETESTU EDM     (2.044)     (0.702)     (1.341)
39 HENRIK.ZETTERBERG DET     (1.054)      0.283     (1.336)
40 JORDAN.STAAL CAR     (1.004)      0.318     (1.321)
You almost have to discount the Canucks, Coyotes, and Avalanche. They are all so bad that they're stacking the list. So let's cut them, and we'll go from 40 players down to 18 (and then bump it out to 25 just because):

Player Team  jQOT  jQOC /\Qual
1 TAYLOR.HALL EDM/N.J     (2.407)      0.272     (2.680)
2 JAROMIR.JAGR FLA     (2.107)      0.332     (2.440)
3 JOHNNY.GAUDREAU CGY     (2.307)      0.112     (2.420)
4 JOHN.TAVARES NYI     (1.967)      0.382     (2.350)
5 VIKTOR.STALBERG NYR/CAR/OTT     (2.787)     (0.468)     (2.320)
6 MICHAEL.FROLIK CGY     (2.072)     (0.018)     (2.055)
7 ARTEMI.PANARIN CHI     (1.352)      0.402     (1.755)
8 SAM.REINHART BUF     (1.652)      0.087     (1.740)
9 SEAN.COUTURIER PHI     (1.347)      0.372     (1.720)
10 MATT.STAJAN CGY     (2.362)     (0.663)     (1.700)
11 CHRIS.VANDEVELDE PHI     (2.337)     (0.668)     (1.670)
12 JEAN-GABRIEL.PAGEAU OTT     (1.432)      0.232     (1.665)
13 CONNOR.MCDAVID EDM     (1.317)      0.327     (1.645)
14 PIERRE-E.BELLEMARE PHI     (2.162)     (0.523)     (1.640)
15 JESPER.FAST NYR     (1.817)     (0.188)     (1.630)
16 MARK.LETESTU EDM     (2.312)     (0.698)     (1.615)
17 HENRIK.ZETTERBERG DET     (1.322)      0.287     (1.610)
18 JORDAN.STAAL CAR     (1.272)      0.322     (1.595)
19 FRANS.NIELSEN NYI/DET     (1.527)      0.057     (1.585)
20 ALEX.CHIASSON OTT/CGY     (1.867)     (0.288)     (1.580)
21 SEAN.MONAHAN CGY     (1.387)      0.192     (1.580)
22 MATT.MOULSON BUF     (1.932)     (0.363)     (1.570)
23 ANDERS.LEE NYI     (1.522)      0.037     (1.560)
24 VINCENT.TROCHECK FLA     (1.362)      0.197     (1.560)
25 RYAN.O'REILLY BUF     (1.142)      0.397     (1.540)
These are the guys that you want on your team. Please ignore the inclusion of Vandevelde and Bellemare, as that's just a product of Dave Hakstol being a fucking goddamn idiot. 

(deep breath)

They are getting stuck with competition that is better than their teammates, which is a tough position to be put in considering they often play on the same team as guys in the previous category that are sheltered so much that their coaches basically feed them grapes on the bench. 

These are the workhorses, the grinders, the guys who make life easier for the Brayden Schenns and Alex Ovechkins and Jack Eichels of the world. (The Flames, Islanders, and Sabres are also all kind of bad.)

Players With jQOC > jQOT Who Produce The Most

Here's your money shot for the day. Of the 233 forwards that qualify (with 1500+ minutes at 5v5 in the past two seasons), 106 players face competition who are stronger via TOI and xG than their teammates. I'll include Brad Marchand to make 107 because his difference is just 0.004 on the positive side and I want to see where he stacks up. 

Of those 107 players, here are the top of the list in Expected Goals For Percentage:
Player Team xGF% GF%  jQOT   jQOC  /\Qual
1 PATRICE.BERGERON BOS 58.77 55.15      0.311      0.438     (0.126)
2 BRAD.MARCHAND BOS 57.76 57.59      0.406      0.403      0.004
3 CONNOR.MCDAVID EDM 56.39 57.58     (1.049)      0.323     (1.371)
4 SEAN.COUTURIER PHI 56.14 55.78     (1.079)      0.368     (1.446)
5 NIKITA.KUCHEROV T.B 55.56 59.88     (0.564)      0.108     (0.671)
6 JORDAN.STAAL CAR 55.5 51.92     (1.004)      0.318     (1.321)
7 BLAKE.WHEELER WPG 55.05 53.69     (0.224)      0.413     (0.636)
8 TAYLOR.HALL EDM/N.J 54.78 52.49     (2.139)      0.268     (2.406)
9 BRANDON.SAAD CBJ 54.53 59.43     (0.149)     (0.002)     (0.146)
10 RYAN.KESLER ANA 54.08 51.92      0.391      0.433     (0.041)

Especially impressive are McDavid, Couturier, Staal, and Hall - they're all buried in a really significant way, and they STILL manage to come out with a positive Expected Goals differential. 

In Conclusion

Sean Couturier is very good. Thank you for your time. 
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